To bet or not to bet, that is the question

ocallagh

Tribeca 3/6 NL

The table has playing very tight, but no proper history/notes on villain except he has folded on the button a few times too many.

Stacks:
Hero: $460
Villain: $620

Preflop
Hero is the SB with 99
Folded to villain on the button who makes it 21 to go
Hero calls. coments?

Flop ($45) [8s 9s 2s]

What's the best play here?

BigCityBanker

I dont know about this - if he has been folding on the button he aint paying you unless he has caught some of the flop. In any case I lead for $35. Hope for an overpair without a spade and hope he aint playing AsXs. What sort of range do you think he opens from the button with?

ChipLdr

Definate lead for me here.You cant take the risk of him checking behind and a spade hitting on turn.Bet out close to pot. If he calls i'm betting big on a non spade turn.

If he raises i'd assume he's holding an overpair with a spade or terribly unlucky to be behind something like Aks Aqs etc.

cardshark202

I check-call or check-raise if villain is likely to c-bet.

AmarilloFats

Though I obviously don't have the time to waste on actually doing it, here are my predictions for Google hit statistics on misspelt words.

Reciept… 1.11 million
Backround… 1.82 million
Febuary… 2.26 million
Wierd… 9.46 million

But the clear winner is… (probably)...

Definately… 20.7 million

Oh and I lead for $35ish..Looking to get AI obv...Check a spade turn...Lead again any other turn for about 123-150

ianmc38

Do you use PAHUD Niall? I have mine configured to show CB% and folds to CB%. They're both crucial stats and my move would be made based on that. If he doesn't cb alot, I lead, if he does I probably check-raise.

karlh

AmarilloFats wrote:

Though I obviously don't have the time to waste on actually doing it, here are my predictions for Google hit statistics on misspelt words.

Reciept… 1.11 million
Backround… 1.82 million
Febuary… 2.26 million
Wierd… 9.46 million

But the clear winner is… (probably)...

Definately… 20.7 million

such a looser.

ianmc38

teh ftw!

fuzzbox

check

ianmc38

fuzzbox wrote:

check

Was that a subtle double entendre?

pok3rplaya

Depends. What other hands would you ever lead with here?

ocallagh

I led for 30 and he insta folded. not a very interesting outcome I know, but for the first time in ages I was unsure as what to do against a villain with no history! Against a lot of player leading is correct, but this guy I think I messed up be leading.

ianmc - Didn't have those stats at the time. My NY resolution is to play a lot of 3/6 so I just got PAHUDl. Still setting the display up and getting used to it all. Have you any tips for Tribeca display?

ianmc38

I use the 4 defaults and "Continuation bet"and "Folds to continuation bet". I think these 6 are the most important.

ocallagh

ianmc38 wrote:

I use the 4 defaults and "Continuation bet"and "Folds to continuation bet". I think these 6 are the most important.

cheers ian

fuzzbox

ianmc38 wrote:

Was that a subtle double entendre?

my new name is mysterio ... I bet you can guess why !!

fuzzbox

ianmc38 wrote:

I use the 4 defaults and "Continuation bet"and "Folds to continuation bet". I think these 6 are the most important.

I like Calls Raise % also.

Nothing like seeing sb with 2% and BB with 5% and folded to me on the co/button.

And if its 12% and 15% then I dont have to raise my 45o there I can just pass, safe in the knowledge that these guys are more likely to give action on my AA hands.

ocallagh

fuzzbox wrote:

I like Calls Raise % also.

Nothing like seeing sb with 2% and BB with 5% and folded to me on the co/button.

And if its 12% and 15% then I dont have to raise my 45o there I can just pass, safe in the knowledge that these guys are more likely to give action on my AA hands.

jesus they should be charging 500 for this tool.

ianmc38

ocallagh wrote:

jesus they should be charging 500 for this tool.

Yup. Its unbelievable.

robinlacey

i'd bet 40 and try to get it all in on the flop

robinlacey

why would you check fuzzbox?

cardshark202

A lead is very strong on this board. You miss out on a possible cbet and you lose a lot of value if he has an overpair, especially one without a spade. I like a c-c flop and crai turn line if villain is somewhat aggressive.

phantom_lord

cardshark202 wrote:

I like a c-c flop and crai turn line if villain is somewhat aggressive.

that sounds good.

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

why would you check fuzzbox?

because its far too easy for him to just fold AKo, or even JJ with no spades, or etc etc.

Everybody leads with their big hands these days, and nobody raises with one pair anymore, so check/call + lead or check/raise can be a better move.

The Snapper

ocallagh wrote:

jesus they should be charging 500 for this tool.

I dont have this and am now playing more cash games. Sounds like I'm missing out.



where best to download

Cost is ?

Dont have pokertracker or poker office

cheers:D

ocallagh

It displays information on your opponents. For example it tells you how often they limp/raise/continuation bet etc. The figures are displayed on the table beside their name (the display is totally configurable).

You need Poker Tracker to use the tool (someone correct me if I am wrong).

The cost is $25 and well worth it.

You can download it from their website, http://pokeracesoftware.com/

The Snapper

ocallagh wrote:

It displays information on your opponents. For example it tells you how often they limp/raise/continuation bet etc. The figures are displayed on the table beside their name (the display is totally configurable).

You need Poker Tracker to use the tool (someone correct me if I am wrong).

The cost is $25 and well worth it.

You can download it from their website, http://pokeracesoftware.com/

nice 1 thanks Niall
oh and g'wan the smurph:D