pot odds with poo hand

ChipLdr

Online Game:

last 15 of tourney; 6 paid i have 93os in bb;stack 7k (BB 800) UTG is all in for 1800 folded around to me. Blinds up in 5mins to 500 1k

So its 1k to win 3k? Call or fold

whats the minimum range of hands one can call here or are the odds to good to fold even 72

opr

ChipLdr wrote:

Online Game:

last 15 of tourney; 6 paid i have 93os in bb;stack 7k (BB 800) UTG is all in for 1800 folded around to me. Blinds up in 5mins to 500 1k

So its 1k to win 3k? Call or fold

whats the minimum range of hands one can call here or are the odds to good to fold even 72

I Call with anything in this spot.

Opr

ArmaniJeanss

opr wrote:

I Call with anything in this spot.

That was my instinctive thought as well, but looking at in on a poker calculator it seems a bit marginal with 93o. We need to win 33% of time, and our opponent has to have some very poor hands in his range before we have that 33%.

opr

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

That was my instinctive thought as well, but looking at in on a poker calculator it seems a bit marginal with 93o. We need to win 33% of time, and our opponent has to have some very poor hands in his range before we have that 33%.

He is UTG so he is basically pushing this hand or the next so i think his range is very poor ?

Opr

sikes

id prob fold. its pretty close. something that looks pretty like 54s+ or somthing like that would be the start of my range. 93o doesnt quite cut it though

ocallagh

call

Mellor

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

That was my instinctive thought as well, but looking at in on a poker calculator it seems a bit marginal with 93o. We need to win 33% of time, and our opponent has to have some very poor hands in his range before we have that 33%.

Don't we need to win it 1 in every 4. So 25%
If we make this decision four times and win only once. We break even. Lose 1k if we miss (times 3) and get 3k profit if we win. So as long as you are above 25% to his hand call.

sikes

yeah mellors right, obv this is call with any two. should have read the OP better

RoundTower

sikes wrote:

id prob fold. its pretty close. something that looks pretty like 54s+ or somthing like that would be the start of my range. 93o doesnt quite cut it though

this is bad thinking, there is virtually no situation where you should call with 45s and fold 93o. Yes the 45 looks prettier, but you have to know how to win ugly as well.

opr

RoundTower wrote:

this is bad thinking, there is virtually no situation where you should call with 45s and fold 93o. Yes the 45 looks prettier, but you have to know how to win ugly as well.

Very nicely put was trying to think of a nice way of saying this.

Opr

sikes

this is bad thinking, there is virtually no situation where you should call with 45s and fold 93o. Yes the 45 looks prettier, but you have to know how to win ugly as well.

there is a ~5% difference against a pretty wide range, if we are getting 2/1 surely this is the difference between a call and a fold, clearly this is -cEV. obviously getting 3/1 theres no choice.

I dont think its prettier, obvioulsy the wrong word to use, it just stands up a bit better.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.785% 68.26% 00.53% 5511786948 42762756.00 { 22+, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 31.215% 30.69% 00.53% 2477913204 42762756.00 { 93o }

Hand 0: 61.609% 61.08% 00.53% 1656704736 14305962.00 { 22+, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 38.391% 37.86% 00.53% 1026972876 14305962.00 { 54s }

Mellor

Anyway to the OP. This is a profitable call against all hands except AA-TT.
Against AKs or 88, it doesn't look nice but its still very much profitable.
Call

Outcome?? I imagine you called and were up against KQ etc, hit the cards to win it and were blasted at the table for making the call.

sikes

opr wrote:

Very nicely put was trying to think of a nice way of saying this.

Opr

be as cruel as you like, i dont mind

opr

sikes wrote:

be as cruel as you like, i dont mind

lol , I didn't mean it that way i seem to having trouble articulating things today shown by the use of the word nice twice in my last post ..... uggggghhh

We are calling with 9,3 because of pots odds but also Villians range here really is ANY two cards. He could be sticking it in here with 6,7s. His range is massive and as such a call with 9,3 or 4,5 makes no difference.

Opr

RoundTower

sikes wrote:

there is a ~5% difference against a pretty wide range, if we are getting 2/1 surely this is the difference between a call and a fold, clearly this is -cEV. obviously getting 3/1 theres no choice.

I dont think its prettier, obvioulsy the wrong word to use, it just stands up a bit better.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.785% 68.26% 00.53% 5511786948 42762756.00 { 22+, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 31.215% 30.69% 00.53% 2477913204 42762756.00 { 93o }

Hand 0: 61.609% 61.08% 00.53% 1656704736 14305962.00 { 22+, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 38.391% 37.86% 00.53% 1026972876 14305962.00 { 54s }

I'm actually surprised there's this much of a difference, so you may be able to make a case for calling in some situations with 54s and folding 93o. For the 93o to really come into its own your opponent has to be pushing some really weak hands, i.e. 8 high and worse as part of his range.

sikes

opr wrote:

lol , I didn't mean it that way i seem to having trouble articulating things today shown by the use of the word nice twice in my last post ..... uggggghhh

We are calling with 9,3 because of pots odds but also Villians range here really is ANY two cards. He could be sticking it in here with 6,7s. His range is massive and as such a call with 9,3 or 4,5 makes no difference.

Opr

In this hand where we are getting 3/1 we are right.

I think it becomes closer if we are offered 2/1. For a lot of villains, its often not any two cards, unless he lost a chunk in the last couple of hands, as if he has a clue about what he is up to, he would have pushed a lot sooner.

opr

sikes wrote:

In this hand where we are getting 3/1 we are right.

I think it becomes closer if we are offered 2/1. For a lot of villains, its often not any two cards, unless he lost a chunk in the last couple of hands, as if he has a clue about what he is up to, he would have pushed a lot sooner.

I agree completly that it becomes closer i just dont think you can ever in these kind of spots narrow villians range to include the likes of k2 and not things like 6,7s so making a call better with 4,5 than 9,3.

Opr

ArmaniJeanss

Mellor wrote:

Don't we need to win it 1 in every 4. So 25%.

Yep, you're right - my maths is alcoholically braindead the last few days.

ChipLdr

I was actually the one UTG here however the chip stacks that i stated were a bit different on 2nd look with the odds being about 2.7/1 for the BB to call.Is 2.7/1 still good odds with to call with any 2 here? I had 72 and pushed UTG and he folded.I couldnt believe it.

I showed and he typed he had 93os


I went on to finish 3rd.

Hitman Actual

ChipLdr wrote:

Is 2.7/1 still good odds with to call with any 2 here?

If your UTG range includes 72, then absolutely!

Anyway, 2.7/1 means you only need to win 27% of the time, so it really is an autocall, unless you're sure UTG only pushes with big pairs. But as has been said, getting 2/1 odds makes it much tighter to call with any two.

Mellor

The UTG push with 72 here is fine. Obviously you'll have a better hand nevxt time in the BB, but you have to paly it and will get more callers. Much more of a chance to get players to fold here. But offering 3/1 the BB had to call it. His mistake your gain

sikes

Mellor wrote:

The UTG push with 72 here is fine. Obviously you'll have a better hand nevxt time in the BB, but you have to paly it and will get more callers. Much more of a chance to get players to fold here. But offering 3/1 the BB had to call it. His mistake your gain

if you are heads up and expect BB to always call, as per the OP, your pushing 1800 into expected pot of 2200, pushing is -EV. Then take into account the other 5/6 players and the prob they have a good hand to isolate, this is horrible.

Mellor

Your UTG with 72. If you fold you will have almost half your stack in the middle on the next hand. You will have to play. And you will get a caller from much easier. Pushing UTG with 72 is bad play if you are always getting called, but you aren't. The only one that has to call is the BB. If the BB has a good understand of pot odds and percentages, but he didnt.
I'd rather push any hand UTG, than have to wait for the BB. As other players will see you are forced to make the move and will move in for the kill. You will get more callers from the BB move than when UTG.

sikes

Mellor wrote:

Your UTG with 72. If you fold you will have almost half your stack in the middle on the next hand. You will have to play. And you will get a caller from much easier. Pushing UTG with 72 is bad play if you are always getting called, but you aren't. The only one that has to call is the BB. If the BB has a good understand of pot odds and percentages, but he didnt.
I'd rather push any hand UTG, than have to wait for the BB. As other players will see you are forced to make the move and will move in for the kill. You will get more callers from the BB move than when UTG.

you are assuming we have FE, which from the original posters post, he said we believe we dont. Even if we do have FE, of which we would have very little, it doesnt compensate for poor hand and the 5/6 players left to act.

theres nothing wrong with pushing 72o in the right spot, this is clearly not the right spot.

and obviosuly we are getting it all in on the next hand.

opr

The kind of hand you see that was pushed in this senario is exactly why i think it is still very bad thinking to call with 4,5 and not 9,3. In this situtaion which hand would you prefer to have ?

The results given in this thread for hand anaylsis between 4,5 and 9,3 leaves out the range of hands that 9,3 performs better against and thus gives a weighted result towards 4,5. I don't think you can include hands like k,2 and not hands like 6,7s in the pushing range.

Thus i still think it is very bad if you decide it is +EV to call that you will do this with 4,5 and not 9,3

Opr

Mellor

What hand has a better chance against all hands?? Against every possible hand, does 45 still out perform 93

opr

Mellor wrote:

What hand has a better chance against all hands?? Against every possible hand, does 45 still out perform 93

You lazy git

No 9,3 performs better against a ramdom hand.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,561,158,400 games 0.016 secs 2,097,572,400,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.831% 38.27% 02.56% 12844738876 858517096.00 { 93s, 93o }
Hand 1: 59.169% 56.61% 02.56% 18999385332 858517096.00 { random }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,561,158,400 games 0.005 secs 6,712,231,680,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.980% 35.94% 03.04% 12061627980 1020451290.00 { 54s, 54o }
Hand 1: 61.020% 57.98% 03.04% 19458627840 1020451290.00 { random }

Opr