Ipc Odds

lilfish

These are Ladbrokes odds for the IPC.....


Poker - Irish Poker Championship


2007 Irish Poker Championship
SELECTION
Click here or on ODDS to change view order ODDS BET NOW OR ADD TO MULTIPLE
Andrew Black 80/1
Donncha O'Dea 80/1
John McGill 80/1
Padraig Parkinson 80/1
Roy Brindley 80/1
Con Collins 100/1
George Geary 100/1
Noel Mannion 100/1
Oliver Boyce 100/1
Pat O'Flaherty 100/1
Patrick Tobin 100/1
Ross O'Boyle 100/1
Costas Constantinou 125/1
Krishan Suresh Larsen 125/1
Mike Fitzgerald 125/1
Soren Kongsgaard-Nielsen 125/1
Benjamin Kang 150/1
Con O'Sullivan 150/1
Damian Quinliven 150/1
Dave Johnson 150/1
Frank Dunleavy 150/1
Gerry Sinnott 150/1
Jens Klaning 150/1
John Weafer 150/1
Lawrence Gosney 150/1
Mike Fisher 150/1
Mike O'Connor 150/1
Noel Thomas 150/1
Pat Donegan 150/1
Pat Flanagan 150/1
Patrick Stephens 150/1
Paul Quinn 150/1
Rory Purcell 150/1
Stig Top 150/1
Alan Swan 200/1
Albert Alexander 200/1
Bernard Brady 200/1
Brian Wynne 200/1
Carl Hanlon 200/1
Carl Hargrove 200/1
Chris Smith 200/1
Colin Larkin 200/1
Daniel Smith 200/1
David Lloyd 200/1
Emmet Gough 200/1
James Lee 200/1
Jeff Power 200/1
John Clancy 200/1
John Maddock 200/1
John McManus 200/1
Keith Murphy 200/1
Kevin Parkes 200/1
Mario Jechiu 200/1
Matt Dobbins 200/1
Mick Flaherty 200/1
Mike Healy 200/1
Shane Daly 200/1
Shane Keary 200/1
Vincent Brady 200/1
Ben Jason 300/1
Bernard Dunne 300/1
Brian Divilley 300/1
Carl Longmore 300/1
Christine Cumiskey 300/1
Craig Owen 300/1
Damien Kavanagh 300/1
David Cosgrove 300/1
Dicky Long 300/1
Jimmy Devaney 300/1
John Ryan 300/1
Keith Cummins 300/1
Kevin Buckley 300/1
Michael Morley 300/1
Michael O'Brien 300/1
Paul Cooney 300/1
Philip Baker 300/1
Philip Carter 300/1
Tom Christle 300/1
Tommy Tiernan 300/1
Tommy Tucker 300/1
Trevor McGoona 300/1
Vinnie Gavin 300/1
Vinnie O'Toole 300/1

lilfish

forgot to add.... 1/10th the odds to make the final table.......

BigCityBanker

Distraught at my omission from the list.... :rolleyes:

edit: seriously now that ive looked at the list NFR, PillowTalk both missing.?? Am I to assume il get 300/1 the pair?

lilfish

not my odds, but i know a decent bit of time went into the compiling and they are hoping to take some business. On that note i am certain they will lay u a price about any player u want......

Mellor

how many players for the final table each way bet, 8 or 9

lilfish

sorry for lack of info again, but suppose thats upto the pokerevents team....personally presumed final table would be 9 players.....

Norwich Fan Rob

they will be some good value on some players not necessarily known to ladbrokes in this.

LuckyLloyd

I will probably be playing.

BIG-SLICK-POKER

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I will probably be playing.

ILL PUT €1 E/W ON LLOYD

a-k-47

do paddypowers have a book open yet?... NFR and Pillow also HJ are you 3 playing in this?, thanks

rag2gar

its kinda funny how they dont have odds on flipper!

rag2gar

tommy tiernan 300/1, that a joke of a bet!!!

Norwich Fan Rob

myself (129 in wsop, decent finish in dublin ept, killing online cash), flipper (up a bundle this year, last years champ), pillowtalk (one of the biggest winners in high stakes cash this year), masters (3rd last year)..........none of us quoted !!!

we are all playing.

robinlacey

anyone know roughly how many runners in total,and what odds would you get on an unknown (me)?

mdwexford

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

myself (129 in wsop, decent finish in dublin ept, killing online cash), flipper (up a bundle this year, last years champ), pillowtalk (one of the biggest winners in high stakes cash this year), masters (3rd last year)..........none of us quoted !!!

we are all playing.

lets all start a boards inspired gamble on the four boys and scare the **** out of ladbrokes!!!!

100ew on a 300/1= lots.......

Ollieboy

the lists is taken from pokerevents confirmed runners, so thats why people are missing, you would have to request someone to get the odds otherwise.

So dont take it so personal Rob....lol.


I'm guessing you guys will be on it today or tomorrow after getting your tickets on Monday.

LuckyLloyd

BIG-SLICK-POKER wrote:

ILL PUT €1 E/W ON LLOYD

Jaysus, don't break the bank!!

robinlacey

Ollieboy wrote:

the lists is taken from pokerevents confirmed runners, so thats why people are missing, you would have to request someone to get the odds otherwise.

So dont take it so personal Rob....lol.


I'm guessing you guys will be on it today or tomorrow after getting your tickets on Monday.

do you reckon i could contact them,announce my intention to play and get them to quote odds for myself?
if so who would i contact?

Ollieboy

robinlacey wrote:

do you reckon i could contact them,announce my intention to play and get them to quote odds for myself?
if so who would i contact?

go to the Ladbokes site, I think there's a contact link etc for prices, you'll get a great price if your unknown.

I'm sure they check pocket fives, hendon mob and ask Roy the boy etc.

They might not give prices on people they have no background on etc, Pillowtalk would be a good price as he would me on the hendon mod site etc, been a big online cash players counts for nothing in tourney prices etc, unless they are very aware of you.

robinlacey

cheers ollie,that's whjat i was thinking
i placed in the world series this year so i'll be in the hendon mob database,but hopefully one placing shouldn't affect my odds too much but will get them to give me odds in the first place!

califano

I would say anyone thats not already priced up who asks Ladbrokes for a price on themselves would have a very hard time getting one. Not out of suspicion but more because of their discombobulation.
Nobody will no anything about anything, someone elses job, he's on a day off etc. Id say that you are odds on not to get a price for yourself on request.
I could be proved wrong.

robinlacey

well i sent them an email,so fingers crossed,but it was just an idea anyway,doesn't really matter
i just sent it the generic support address (care@..) so if anyone knows a more specific address let me know

califano

robinlacey wrote:

well i sent them an email,so fingers crossed,but it was just an idea anyway,doesn't really matter
i just sent it the generic support address (care@..) so if anyone knows a more specific address let me know

I know what youre saying, your not that pushed but would like a price anyway. But after reading that you emailed them i am now certain you will not get a price or a responce to your email.
You would have a better chance ringing their head office, its in eastwall i think and asking there.

BigCityBanker

Ladbrokes have quoted me 150/1 On NFR & PillowTalk, They also quoted me 150/1 on myself so the traders are obviously just handing out generic prices.

EDIT: FWIW - Ive just had a mail from a lad in PP to tell me that they have priced me up at 250/1 for the Irish Open. Im taking out a car loan and having the whole lot on the nose...

LuckyLloyd

It is unsurprising that the prices for the event are a bit mad. No disrespect to Noel (and he would probably be the first to say it himself) but him being quoted at the same price as Eoin Olin and Rob Taylor is quite incorrect.

Ladbrokes are running a book on this event because it will represent a tidy profit for them. Of the starting field tomorrow it would be fair to mark about 50 - 60% of the field as being extremely unlikely to go deep. After that it is a case of some of the capable players having a slightly better chance than others due to form, confidence etc.. However, taking a punt on any individual is no more than an educated guess and I don't think that this type of Market offers any value to the punter. My guess is that the eventual winner will be surprising to most and that the final table will have a few new names at it.

Ladbrokes are unlikely to have staff members who closely follow the Irish poker scene and their prices are no more than shots in the dark - bigger names taking precedance over lesser known players regardless of recent developments and runs in form. It doesn't really affect Ladbroke's bottom line however as pre - match favourites rarely tend to come through and win tournaments - and even if the winner is at an outlandish price the bookie will still make money as bets will be widely dispersed among the field.

If I was betting I would back my selection for the final table only. Secondly, I would shoot for an inform player who has had more than one good result in the last twelve months. Brendan Walls is not priced - but he final tabled the June Poker Events tournament and the Asian open in Singapore. He was unlucky to crash out of the GJP when he suffered a pretty bad beat in a pot that would have set him up. Thats where my money would be going (presuming he plays)...but it is a mugs market in any case.

BigCityBanker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

It is unsurprising that the prices for the event are a bit mad. No disrespect to Noel (and he would probably be the first to say it himself) but him being quoted at the same price as Eoin Olin and Rob Taylor is quite incorrect.

Lloyd - I fully understand what your saying here, If jokers like NFR & PillowTalk are 150/1 then I must surely be a 16/1 shot at best. :rolleyes:

Ah seriously tho - you have summed it up nicely.

nicnicnic

the value issue depends on the amount of starters while there is no doubt that the overall book will be 180%+ which is extortionate, if there is less then 250 starters then there i think the 300/1 about players such as Damo Kavanagh and Vinnie Gavin represents value.

LuckyLloyd

nicnicnic wrote:

the value issue depends on the amount of starters while there is no doubt that the overall book will be 180%+ which is extortionate, if there is less then 250 starters then there i think the 300/1 about players such as Damo Kavanagh and Vinnie Gavin represents value.

Good points Nicky. Thats two good players at long prices. However, I think the field will have more than 300 runners - it was just short of 400 last time.

You are another player that should be quoted aswell.

BigCityBanker

nicnicnic wrote:

the overall book will be 180%+ which is extortionate

Try make a book on a special market like this and see how hard it is to manage your OR. If there are 300 runners and the book is c.200% you get an OR/R of c0.33% which by any stretch of the imagination isnt all that bad and certainly for this type of event can not be classed as extortionate. Using OR or Plain Vanilla book % in a situation like this is fairly misleading and OR/R is definitely a more accurate reflection of market efficiency. A 2 year sample of Irish Horse Racing markets shows an OR/R of 3.29%.

lilfish

when u consider P.Power have world series final table prices such as P.ivey 18/1 to make his way through 8873 (last years total) players to the final table, and the shortest price here is 8/1 in a field under 400, it really isnt that bad.

lilfish

oh and for what its worth i thought Damo Kavangh was over priced too....

LuckyLloyd

lilfish wrote:

oh and for what its worth i thought Damo Kavangh was over priced too....

lilfish,

Are you an employee of Ladbrokes or associated with them in some way? I'm just wondering mind, as if you are maybe you could arrange for some players to be listed that have been excluded so far.

Thanks,

Lloyd.

lilfish

ex employee, but if u want to put together a list of people that you want priced up, i will call up the people i know and see what i can do.

Duff Man Jr.

Does a ew bet pay for a top 3 finish or making the final table?

LuckyLloyd

Ok lilfish, I can't be certain if all of the below are playing (I am sure that some are). However, they should be priced as if they were in Ireland they are the type of names that pop up regularly at these types of events. Also, I would not want most of them at my starting table:

Ken Powell
Rob Taylor
Eoin Olin
Nicky Power
Caoimhe O' Sullivan
Liam Barker
Brendan Walls
Noel Hayes (BCB on boards)
Tim Farrelly (Piper T on boards)
Joe O' Neill
Robin Lacey
Paul Higgins
Dave Masters
Kieran (Flipper) Walsh
Aidan McCormack (Rounders123 on Boards)

The below might not be in the country due to the Aussie Millions - I don't know:

Conor Doyle
Niall O' Callaghan
Dave O' Callaghan
Dave Murray

There is also myself, Lloyd O' Farrell.

Most of the above names will have Hendon Mob profiles. If anyone reading this thread can think of names I have left out, or are sure people aren't playing; please butt in.

lilfish

each way on the site is 1/5th the first 6, but i was told anybody that wanted it could have 1/10th the odds to make the final table in the shops

BigCityBanker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

If anyone reading this thread can think of names I have left out, or are sure people aren't playing; please butt in.

Bob Battersby

lilfish

Ok all names sent on to the appropriate guy. Hope he sorts ya the prices ur after......

ArmaniJeanss

BigCityBanker wrote:

A 2 year sample of Irish Horse Racing markets shows an OR/R of 3.29%.

Interesting post. OT but often wondered how OnCourse bookies get away with 200% + books on big field maiden hurdles and bumpers?. Surely Irish punters have too much savvy to back at such constricted odds, or is that only the top 3 or 4 are backed anyway.

By and large the poker odds seem relatively fair compared to something like antePost market for the Epsom Derby in June which still has 200+ runners in it, but will have plenty of horses trading at 20/1 or less and if you ring for a price on an unquoted one, you will be lucky to get 100/1.

LuckyLloyd

Also, forgot Willow Connolly and Collete Murphy (smurph). They would be in contention to place if playing.

nicnicnic

point taken bcb and lads have made a decent go of it IMO.

If anyone recalls the effort boyles made for this event last year. What a joke that was, think it went 8/1 Ram and Andy bunches after that of 20/1 33/1 50 and i think the biggest price on offer in the 393 field was 66/1 When you consider ladds have an 80/1 fav this year its some improvement for anyone having a punt.

Anyway if anyone is backing me get on early i expect the usual huge Gamble on me for these events, i think its my mun backing me but i ended up 80/1 for the open last year. I also expect alot of the Wexford lads to be getting on;) (the first bus home saturday).

Right I'm off to the City west now see ye alll there

califano

Good luck Nicky and lay off the booze a little!. I met you last time but im sure you cant remember that?:p

BigCityBanker

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

Interesting post. OT but often wondered how OnCourse bookies get away with 200% + books on big field maiden hurdles and bumpers?. Surely Irish punters have too much savvy to back at such constricted odds, or is that only the top 3 or 4 are backed anyway.

Not wishing to bring this off topic but you are essentially correct in your assumption. The favourite-longshot bias also has considerable impact. I have written articles on the topic before and will pass them onto you if I can find them.

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

Bay nd large the poker odds seem relatively fair compared to something like antePost market for the Epsom Derby in June which still has 200+ runners in it, but will have plenty of horses trading at 20/1 or less and if you ring for a price on an unquoted one, you will be lucky to get 100/1.

If I try and get a price on an unraced horse I get a "default" price - similar to why I got 150/1 for NFR, MPT & Myself today. 33/1 is the standard price for an unraced horse for the guineas. Watch the run once tho and you can take all the 20's and 25's (go on Teofilio you beauty). I have a good contact in the Michael Stoute Stable - he told me c.15 months ago to back an unraced horse of theirs for the Derby, I went to Powers and after 15 mins the race room called back to say "he can have 33/1" - Im laughing and say I could have told you that 15 mins ago!! I held the distinction of being the first person to have an antepost wager on the horse with PP. 3 months later, still an unraced horse, he was subject to an almighty antepost plunge into 8/1 for the Derby - Its an awful pity the cùnt was useless Live and learn and watch them run also..

Jesus Wept

lilfish wrote:

These are Ladbrokes odds for the IPC.....


Poker - Irish Poker Championship


2007 Irish Poker Championship
SELECTION
Click here or on ODDS to change view order ODDS BET NOW OR ADD TO MULTIPLE
Andrew Black 80/1




can i lay 80/1 on andy black? or 100/1? .... or 400/1....

rag2gar

Ill take some of the 400/1 off you

Jesus Wept

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

myself (129 in wsop, decent finish in dublin ept, killing online cash), flipper (up a bundle this year, last years champ), pillowtalk (one of the biggest winners in high stakes cash this year), masters (3rd last year)..........none of us quoted !!!

we are all playing.

if you wish, I'll install you as fav in my book, and offer you 15/1 on yourself!!


Odds on poker tournaments are always a joke, most of the odds are laughable :-)

Paddy Power will probably offer 50/1 on Ivey or Brunson to win the IPC...:D