Predictions for 2007?

is_that_so

Seeing as The Economist does it and can get it fairly spectacularly wrong each year what are your own predictions and thoughts for 2007?

• Local
• International
• Problem Areas

Here's a list of mine for what it's worth.

Local

Election time will bring us what we deserve. Undecideds hold the key and will not really make up their minds until they get a ballot paper in their hands, assuming they vote. Expect more independent and a possible minority Rainbow of FG/Labour /Greens and one or two carefully selected independents.

There could also be legal trouble with the constituencies when the census numbers are released which FF will try to ignore until after the election. Even if they lose it will give them something to criticise the new government for.

The great SSIA splurge could turn out to be a damp squib. Even now it's not at all clear what people are going to do with it. With banks offering incentives some may leave some of the fund and continue saving. However with private credit growing at 28% there is also a likelihood that people will exercise a degree of common sense and clear down some of that debt. Also with increasing interest rates the need to control spending may overpower the temptation to splurge.

International

In the US Barack Obama will come to the fore and may be the one to catch.

In Britain the Conservatives will continue to gain ground and Blair may go before the summer. Who knows what is waiting for him in the long grass.

Growth in the EU is likely to accelerate with Germany recovering and as it grows so will the risk of higher inflation. Interest rates increases of 1%+ are a possibility by year end. The first of these will come in the first couple of months and if that does not take effect it will be swiftly followed by another. 1/2% increase at least by March.

In Iraq it will be business as usual although the US will come up with a new strategy.
Some of this is likely to include security and actual reconstruction. This may make things calmer later in the year which if it does Bush will take advantage of to pull troops out.

The UN will begin to look at itself but we can probably expect more of the same. There is no great appetite amongst the main powers to shake off their cold war cloaks or let new people sit at the top table.

Problem areas

Iraq - who knows when although this may be the year where the tide begins to turn in favour of Iraq itself. Insurgency is fine but when all it does is kill locals its popularity can wane spectacularly. We may see more incentives on offer.

Afghanistan - at least in the first half of the year after which the occupying forces may begin to see some better progress.

Iran V US

With Bush being a lame duck this may be a little less fraught although Iran will "wipe" another few countries off the map as well. There will be a lot of menacing and posturing before negotiations start. This will be at a time of Iran's choosing so it could be a long year.

Africa

Darfur

It may be a case of business as usual unless something provides a tipping point. The US will of course continue to provide support to anti-government supporters and China will say No.

Somalia/Ethiopia

Back into the bad old days of superpower puppetry? Or could it just as quickly disappear? The Somali government does have the advantage of being back by a well-trained army, albeit foreign. Ethiopia may well adopt the tactic used by Kagame in the Second Congo War in 1998 and merely "provide support".

Middle East

Israel may sit down with the Palestinians providing Hamas is out of office. There may be some concessions on territory, relaxation of movement but the wall will stay.
Failing that it will be at least another year until a new US president comes into power.

Russia

Russia may turn out to be the big bad boy of 2007. Given its influence on EU gas supplies one might expect them to take advantage of this. Their track record in the last few years is less than exemplary, currently with Belarus and previously with Ukraine and Georgia. Could be lots of mud-slinging.

mike65

FF/Lab 'win' election. Brown finally gets hands on the tiller, oil and gas prices lurch upwards on back of Russian inspired plotting. French vote for centre-right over centre-left. Middle-east reckoning as moderates and hardliners go to war in Lebanon and Palestine.

Mike.

Dirk Gently

National:
Despite a population which will be in no doubt as to Berties dodgy credentials the lack of an alternative vision for government by the opposition and peoples sense of familiarity with the present personalities will see FF returned. The only question will be who will partner them. Hopefully the PD’s will be a bad memory and it will be left to either LAB, GREENS or SF to make up the numbers. Labour will find it very difficult to justify getting into bed with FF again and likewise FF will find it very difficult to justify bringing SF in from the cold so I’m guessing the Greens and FF will probably make up the next government. The technical group should they get re-elected wont entertain the idea of a coalition with FF short of some major concessions which will probably be a bridge too far even for FF. In a sense FF are a decent enough partner for anyone willing to swallow their pride and form a government with them as they have been shown to swing both ways in the past and a smaller party can exert quite a bit of influence over the charlatan giants of Irish politics.

Who ever does form the next government will have a rocky ride towards the end quarter of the year as it becomes clear that the economy has been artificially propped up by an over priced housing market and very generous credit over the past number of years. People will look around them and wonder where the rest of the economy is but will be shocked to find that once the construction boom turns into a slump all we have left propping up our economy is foreign multinationals which will have to be brown nosed to the hilt in order to keep them in the country. Ironically with the departure of the PD’s we might see an increase in PD policy as regards slashing corporation tax and offering incentives to large multinationals to locate in Ireland and for those already here to stay a little longer. As unemployment increases in the construction industry this will have a knock on effect across the board, forcing many small businesses out of business and we will see a flock of the newly arrived foreign labour move on, most likely to Germany. Wages will probably fall but I think house prices will probably fall more.

There may be trouble too if the greens get in and they try to squeeze the motorist with a tax on gas guzzlers and promote a push for public transit systems and increased recycling. This will cause tension within the coalition with FF arguing that there simply isn’t enough money coming in to fund massive transit projects and PAYE workers might well be hit as well as a string of green taxes. This could cause serious tensions within the government and could even be enough to bring it down, FF again forming a new government as the greens feel the wrath of a public backlash.

Pressure will intensify on whatever government is in power as serious crime in the form of gangland killings reaches an all time high sometime in the summer. A few innocent people will get caught up in it all as the gangs become more and more reckless. There will be increased calls from the public for tough action to be taken and maybe, just maybe we might see some investment in disadvantaged areas to combat the problem of no go areas.

If the slump does happen in 2007 There might well be an emergance of a new nationalist party or even a more right wing FG approach as blame will be shifted onto foreign nationals as Irish jobs start to go and the economy begins to wind down.

Up north SF and the DUP will begrudgingly sit in government after SF predictably pull out their ace card and sign up to policing. Big Ian will do his best to clutch at straws and will walk out of a few meetings but ultimately the assembly will be formed and before long the various sectarian parties will be so caught up in real politics that they will have little time for the national question. The SDLP may well flourish in such an environment and maybe some gains for other smaller parties too as decisions begin to be made at a local level and SF and DUP have to make the hard decisions on tax and spending. I wonder which cloak SF will be wearing this time next year, will they be the nationalists, the socialists or the pro business party inviting Irish American companies to set up in Northern Ireland.

In unimportant news, Enda Kenny will be replaced as leader of FG and an even more uninteresting leader will be elected, perhaps shouting a bit louder and with a few more sound bites about drunk tanks. Pat rabbit will be cursing the day he went to the party to get agreement on a pact with FG and will be wishing he played down his anti-FF feelings to make a partnership with FF and LAB a bit more realistic. Perhaps a dismal return at the elections and a few more years in opposition is just what the doctor ordered for Labour as it will give them the time they need to formulate a decent plan for government. Maybe a few years down the road the time will be ripe for voters finally to cast off the FF strangle hold on Irish politics after what will most likely be an economic slump during the life time of the next government.

I predict a couple of new independents might also get elected.

International

With the recent turn in fortunes for the Democrats we will see a new approach from the U.S. in regard to international policy. Great effort will be put into pulling other powers into the trouble spots, not talking troops on the ground here, just when it comes to planning solutions to problems which arise. China and Russia will put their foot down and might tell the U.S. to STFU if they try to expand their influence any further. With the demise of the hawks in Washington Iran looks like it is in a fairly strong position and will most likely get the support of china and china and Russia extend their own influence across the euro-Asia zone.

Russia herself is going to be a major pain in the arse as far as us consumers in the west are concerned. She will become even more sinister in appearance and deeds, cementing her strangle hold on energy supplies, concentrating power within the state at the expense of neighbouring states, including the EU. China and India will become major consumers of energy creating huge environmental problems and having a drastic effect on western economies. A lot of brown nosing will be done by the EU and the US as they realize that yesterdays exploitation grounds become tomorrows superpowers.

The frenchies will have a few riots as hard decisions are made on the economy, probably after as mike says a centre right government is elected. The usual students and lower classes will be out on the streets but France will eventually have no option but to turn the tide in order to kick start the economy. Might turn out to be more of a race war than the usual class war though as old riots pick up where they left off.

Castro will croak it sometime in the first quarter, death will be announced a couple of months later. In previous years he has prepared for his death by making significant partnerships with Venezuela, Bolivia and the other members of the mescar trading block. A tug of war will take place between Washington and Venezuela and Bolivia for the hearts and minds of the Cuban population, with the younger generation drawn to the bright lights of Uncle Sam and the older generation opting for Latino solidarity and pushing for greater ties with mescar. Relations will Thaw between Venezuela and Washington as the democrats exert more influence over policy and both countries realize their dependence on each other as Venezuela becomes one of very few stable suppliers of oil to the U.S and for logistical reasons Venezuela will be forced to keep the U.S supplied with oil because of the difficulties involved with transporting oil to other markets in Asia. Providing relations do thaw and the US are unable to intervine internally Venezuela will become a major player, having already laid the foundations of a good relationship with Russua and China it might be a case of hands of Venezuela for future US administrations but I do believe that a democratic victory in the preidential elections will go along way to promoting good relations providing (a) they actually win the election and (b) bush and co can be kept in check for the remainder of his term.

Blair will stand down but and while I think Brown will take over it wont be as straight over as most people think, as Reid will rattle the saber and create a bit of a scare before brown eventually takes over. I think the recent defeat for the republicans in America will be the extra firepower brown needs to win the leadership battle as everyone this side of the Atlantic looks to distance themselves from the now limited neo cons. Brown will work well with the Democrats should they get into power after the next presidential elections in the U.S.

Problem areas

Iraq – We will see the US draw in other countries more and more to help sort out the mess. Probably see some sort of split with different administrate areas making up what use to be the Iraqi nation. Slowly but surely US and UK troops will snake out of the country leaving responsibility to a less than capable band of factions looking after the various zones backed up by small numbers of coalition troops.

Horn of Africa: A nice media friendly front between Islam and the west will intensify as Ethiopia backed up with shiny new US weaponry attempt to clear out Somalia of the Islamic militias. Fighters will flock to the battleground, perhaps even creating an opportunity for calm in Iraq as a migration of fighters leave and the Iraqi population finally have enough and start to demand an end to the mindless killing. Eventually African union troops will attempt to uphold the government in Somalia but it will be very messy as guerilla warfare intensifies and the U.S and other major powers partake only covertly by backing the various factions through training, intelligence and weaponry rather than overtly going in on the ground. It will be a humanitarian catastrophe as neighbouring countries will not be able to absorb the influx of refugees and the population will be at the mercy of killing squads, starvation, raping and kidnapping.

Turkey will be split on the question of greater ties with the EU and much of the large country will be opposed to it. Already fragile tensions between the government and the many different ethnic groups within the country could come to a head and the Turkish military will impose curfews on many regions in an attempt to keep the eastern parts country together. The Kurds in particular will want to opt into a greater kurdistan nation should northern Iraq become an entity within itself. Turkey wont be best pleased if that happens and nasty repression might be the order of the day.

Lebanon will go through a bitter internal power struggle, occasionally spilling out into violence on the streets but I believe a unity government will be formed as a lot of the population appear to want to move on and not be dominated by Syria. Hezbollah will increase its influence but the moderate voices within Lebanon will still maintain a majority. Israel will be more inclined to deal with what ever government emerges as the kill em all option simply doesn’t work. Israel will however continue to run amuck in Gaza and generally not be nice to the Palestinians. Palestine will be too bust fighting among themselves to resist more and more frequent incursions by Israeli forces but support from America will be more restrained and we might even hear the yanks telling the Israelis to relax the head and talk at some point in 2007.

Global warming will be on the agenda more and more as a few more disasters hit and people start to take the problem seriously. Water will become a very valuable commodity and a ferocious debate will rage as to whether or not privatization of water supplies should be legal or if it breaches human rights. Expect a few flash points in central and south America as lefty governments battle with multinationals for control over water supplies, while many of the poorest people in those countries die through lack of affordable water.

US AND EU. We will see jobs going east more and more and our energy supplies get smaller and more expensive. We will be forced to look for alternative sources of energy and nuclear will probably be the choice of most, maybe running parallel research into green energy but nothing practical in the near future. Green taxes will become the norm across the EU anyway while the US will struggle to change how their people view their way of life. A big propaganda effort will be undertaken to convince people to become energy aware but it will be very difficult especially in the US to change society from an all consuming society into a prudent socially and environmentally aware society. Unemployment might well rise across the western world as energy prices and cheaper labour markets in the east kill off any growth in our markets.

THE UN
Don't expect much to happen but I do believe a period of self analysis and discussion on its future role will take place. To continue to function as it has simply will not do and more and more states will take the uni-laterial route to solving international disputes if the trend continues. The larger countries will have to move somewhat and allow smaller countries a bigger role within the organisation but some countries, Russia in particular might fancy themselves as a stand alone entity. The US probably wont, but really should focus on strengthening the UN as the US itself will lose its dominant position as new super powers emerge and it might be an idea to keep them in check by getting an agreement with the UN.

Bono and geldoff will become more and more irrelevant as war in africa overtakes the trade issue and they will have to take a back seat untill sky news decides they've had enough of reporting on the various wars which will no doubt overspill and spread across the continent in the form of religious and tribal land grabbing.

Gerry Adams will shave his beard and wear a rangers jersey to the assembly after losing a bet to big Ian on the outcome of an old firm match but he will have the last laugh when Celtic win the league anyway and Big Ian is forced to wear an aran sweater and lead the paddy’s day parade on a tour of Antrim. Iris Robinson and Martin mc Guinness will have an affair and produce 3 love children, triplets. They will have curley red hair and freckles but their first words will ne... n...ne...nev....never.

Please Feel free to throw this all back in my face when none of it actually happens and Enda is ruling the roost over the fastest growing economy in the world and Gaffs in Moyross are selling for nothing short of one million euro

Akrasia

Ireland.

The Housing market slowdown which is already well underway will turn into a full blown collapse just in time for the june election which will see FF take an almighty hammering at the polls as massive job losses in the construction sector start to really hit the economy and rising interest rates put mortgage holders under real stress just to make ends meet.

Internationally

Iraq will continue to worsen as long as U.S. troops remain on the ground, and Bush will continue to refuse to pull out.
America will make up an excuse to launch airstrikes against Iran which will see Iran blockade shipping lanes and cut off the oil supplies leaving the global economy in crisis and escalating the conflict in the middle east to almost apocolyptic levels

I'm not a very optimiistic guy for 2007 politically

Dirk Gently

Akrasia wrote:

Ireland.

FF take an almighty hammering at the polls

I don't see it. All indications are that they will poll very well. I think the election will happen before the slump and FF will get back in on the back of a very poor opposition who offer no real alternative. I think it will be after the election before the economy goes belly up and the only real question is who is going to partner FF. Maybe a green, lab, fg coalition might just snake it but FF will still be the biggest party and will only be kept out of power in the event of the other 3 parties getting (a) enough votes and (b) the greens seeing FG/ LAB as offering them more in negotiations. I think FF will bend over backwards to take the greens on board but problems will hit a FF / Green coalition further down the road.
Worse comes to the worse, you know bertie will just get SF on board anyway.