Stars 1-2NL AA hand.

cardshark202

I've been playing pretty aggressively as usual, but have not shown down many hands, and the ones that I have have been decent. Have won quite a few pots recently without showdown.
Villain has been pretty quiet but I believe he is ready to play back somewhat light. I'm just going on a timing tell which is; each time I have opened the pot preflop, villain has taken longer and longer to fold. I think he's getting fed up but I'm obv not sure at all.

Anyway, on flop I had decided to call the re-raise and get it in on most turns.

I think the river is the most interesting street though, bet or check?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($235.70)
MP ($46.55)
CO ($179.60)
cardshark202 ($320.05)
SB ($292.60)
BB ($227.90)

Preflop: cardshark202 is Button with A, A.
3 folds, cardshark202 raises to $8, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($18) 6, 2, 8(2 players)
SB checks, cardshark202 bets $16, SB raises to $44, cardshark202 calls $28.

Turn: ($106) 3(2 players)
SB bets $74, cardshark202 calls $74.

River: ($254) 8(2 players)
SB checks, I....

Samba

yuk, i can't make my mind up whether or not to put out a value bet for 99-QQ to call, or check down his monster.

yuk yuk yuk.


I check.

btw turn and river are both v. interesting

sikes

i dont think 99-KK are calling a bet on the end enough to make $$$. Im not sure if you can make him fold an 8 either. So Id check.

Mr. Flibble

I don't think an 8 bets the turn. Could be a flush inducing a bluff but I think a small bet will be called by PPs alot, and is a much more likely holding for them as a flush would usually value bet the river. And if its a set hoping you have a flush its an easy fold to a CRAI.

cardshark202

I don't think you realise how sick bet folding is given I have less than a PSB left already

Mr. Flibble

And if its a set hoping you have a flush its a sick fold to a CRAI

Its doable tho. I think the situation is valuebettable but if he does reraise is he ever bluffing or betting a worse hand?

Whats a PSB, pretty small bet?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Mr. Flibble

Ah, PSB = pretty big bet in this case I'm thinking of value betting $50.

Does it matter how much more you have left? If he CRs and you have 200 more left does it change what he is CRing with much? He's more likely to CR with an 8 or flush when you are short but they still beat you so its not relevant.

Scouser in Dub

If it were me I am checking behind, there are straights and flushes available on a paired board that we hold an over pair to. Do I want to bet and then fold to a raise, no, is it possible for someone to push me off the best hand with a check raise if I bet light, yes it is

check here imo

Ste05

I have a feeling he has 1010+ and will call a value bet. I can't decide whether to push (you only have ~$200 yeah?) or make it 100 and call any push. I'd probably push.

The fact we have As is giving me some comfort.

Mr. Flibble

I don't think less than KK would call a push meself.
edit: meh, maybe it would. One sure fire way to find out.

marius

Ste05 wrote:

I have a feeling he has 1010+ and will call a value bet. I can't decide whether to push (you only have ~$200 yeah?) or make it 100 and call any push. I'd probably push.

The fact we have As is giving me some comfort.

Pretty much agree with this - looks like QQ KK to me. Don't think i'd push here though, I think most of the time we will lose JJ+ here, but get called by hands that beat us. I'd value bet for about 60 (probably fold to a reraise.)

ianmc38

Check for me.

ntlbell

Check looks good.

phantom_lord

czechoslovakia.

Mr. Flibble

Dear god man tell us what happened. The big guns don't know the best line and aren't answering.

Hitman Actual

I don't think a value bet is called often enough for it to be profitable, compared to what you lose when he has a hand that does actually beat you. I know you're aggressive, but you've raised pre, called a flop raise, called a turn bet. All you beat are 99-QQ (I assume KK raises you pre), and he wont call with those hands often after your play in the hand (and the dangerous board).

Edit: He might even have raised with 99-QQ pre-flop, considering you've been playing your normal aggro game.

RoundTower

what if villain had shoved the river?

Mr. Flibble

lenny_leonard wrote:

I don't think a value bet is called often enough for it to be profitable, compared to what you lose when he has a hand that does actually beat you.

Do we really expect someone to bluff 100 more all-in into a 300 pot if we value bet? I don't think so so we shouldn't lose more than our bet.

Hitman Actual

Mr. Flibble wrote:

Do we really expect someone to bluff 100 more all-in into a 300 pot if we value bet?

Of course not, but the way cardshark is talking, it doesn't sound like he intends folding to a shove.

Mr. Flibble

lenny_leonard wrote:

Of course not, but the way cardshark is talking, it doesn't sound like he intends folding to a shove.

Heh, yes. Bit like when I fold Ace rag when I think someone has AK even tho I know I've the implied odds to hit 2 pair. Gotta fold; can't trust myself not to do anything stupid if I hit just an ace.

padraig_f

I'd bet about 100. I think a flush or an 8 would bet the river. You look like you have something and you're trying to see a cheapish showdown, so I don't think he's going to risk you checking behind on the river when he has a better hand.

Scouser in Dub

but surely the bet is only called when he is behind

padraig_f

I dunno, he said the guy appeared to be getting frustrated with him and I think you could sometimes induce a crying call if you give him a good enough price.

Samba

Scouser in Dub wrote:

but surely the bet is only called when he is behind

It's marginal but there are a few hands that call us, Lenny did mention that surely he is raising with 99-QQ/KK however he may have flat called with a big pair thinking he was trapping.

But because there is so much out there that beats us, I think this is a check.

what throws me off somewhat is would our villain risk not getting paid by checking to us on the river?

Bizarre hand.

Marq

given the PF (no re-raise OOP) and flop (check-raise) action I don't believe villian has flush or v. strong overpair (QQ/KK/AA). I would limit his range to 99-JJ, a set, 8x, 6x, 86, and a total bluff (quite possible in my eyes).

If he has a legitimate hand, he may have put you on a flush draw and is hoping that you will bluff the river to his check (poor play imo, but common). I think that the ratio of Hands he will call a Value Bet with that beat us : Hands that will call a value bet that don't is probably about 2 or 3:1, as I don't see him calling with 6x and possibly not even nines.

Ugh. I would have preferred if he pushed.
I would probably check here.

results?

jimbling

check

cardshark202

The more I think about it now the more I think its a probably bet. Anyway, at that stage I didn't think it through too well and I checked behind.
Villain showed 7h7s and MHIG.

Hands like TT+, I would expect him to re-raise preflop.
22-99, he will probably call.
Most hands that give him a flush, I would expect a tight predictable player to fold. Same applies to all 8x hands.
And given I expect an underfull to bet the river almost all the time, I think there's a small chance of 88 getting tricky on the river, but again he seemed predictable. Then we come to all pp holdings like 77-TT which are probably his most probable holding. The only flush holding I can see him having is KQs, and some players get **** scared when the board pairs and check with flushes.

So even though I am ahead of most of his probable holdings, I am not sure I can get a call from much.

cardshark202

And if he shoves this river, I think I fold, though I am a calling station and I guess I would probably talk myself into calling

kebabfest

cardshark202 wrote:

And if he shoves this river, I think I fold, though I am a calling station and I guess I would probably talk myself into calling

lol. You are actually changing what you should do to what you actually would do in the same sentence ! That is one of the funniest things in poker. You reckon you are fcuked , but the more you think about it you more you justify the call to yourself.

Mr. Flibble

kebabfest wrote:

lol. You are actually changing what you should do to what you actually would do in the same sentence ! That is one of the funniest things in poker. You reckon you are fcuked , but the more you think about it you more you justify the call to yourself.

It is, and its the right thing to do sometimes. Say a pot is 100 and a river bet is 15. You're 80% sure you are rightly fucl<ed, but you still call and will make money by doing it in the long run.

Recon20k

check

phantom_lord

phantom_lord wrote:

czechoslovakia.

shove. what a difference 6 months makes...what's with the bump?

NickyOD

I'd value bet that river for sure.

Captain Tom

meh. i think were ahead here a large % of the time but i dont think we get called by worse very much at all. our hand is pretty much face up too.

edit: actually i probably bet, but i think it's marginal.

Goodluck2me

i like the check too, shoving looks too much like an 8 and shouldnt be called with a worse hand.

fuzzbox

shove

sikes

fuzzbox wrote:

shove

.