Double Dutch

scojones

Following wb's excellent dutching thread I've decided to do a little bit of dutching myself to see if I can make some profit.

Opening Balance: €1000.00

Folkestone 1.10
Snakebite €79.71 @ 1.68
Bennett €20.29 @ 6.6

Total Staked: €100.00
Return if any selection wins: €133.91
Profit: €33.91

Current Balance(results pending): €900.00

scojones

Snakebite made all from the front and wins so dutch is a success.

Current Balance: €1033.91
Strike Rate: 100%

scojones

Another good chance to dutch is the 2.35 at Newbury. I don't think Kerstino Two will get the distance so I'm siding with three selections who are proven over this distance and going.

Newbury 2.35
Tanterari €55.78 @ 3.65
Wild is the Wind €24.83 @ 8.2
Mr Dow Jones €19.39 @ 10.5

Return if any selection wins: €201.64

Current Balance(result pending): €932.27

GreenHorn

sjones wrote:

Another good chance to dutch is the 2.35 at Newbury. I don't think Kerstino Two will get the distance so I'm siding with three selections who are proven over this distance and going.

Newbury 2.35
Tanterari €55.78 @ 3.65
Wild is the Wind €24.83 @ 8.2
Mr Dow Jones €19.39 @ 10.5

Return if any selection wins: €201.64

Current Balance(result pending): €832.27

Should your current balance not be €932.27 or am I not following this right?

Lads, I know you've kinda explained this, but what are the obvious signs that race is suitable to be "dutched"?

scojones

Cheers GreenHorn, I'm prone to typos at that time of night!

wb is probably the best person to talk to with regards dutching. Basically what I'm doing here with this thread is picking a race where I fancy more than one horse. Sure, Kerstino Two could go on and win this causing this dutch to be a failure, but I don't think (I hope!) that this will happen. I'm using the dutching calculator on oddschecker.com to work out how much to place on each horse in order to make a profit, giving their odds. I'm doing all of this on betfair.

scojones

Dutch is unsuccessful as Latimers Place wins.

Strike rate: 50%

Current Balance: 932.27

Time to do a staking plan of between 4 and 6%.

ricerocket

dutching is a bit of a disaster - large bets for small returns - equivalent to backing odds on horses......

wb

ricerocket wrote:

dutching is a bit of a disaster - large bets for small returns - equivalent to backing odds on horses......

Bit of a sweeping statement there ricerocket.

It aint always the same as backing odds on, especially with large fields. In fact, there is often a bit of value to be had.

It is not always a 'disaster' either. There is money to be made if the right selections are made, and the correct staking plan is put in place.

wb

GreenHorn wrote:

Lads, I know you've kinda explained this, but what are the obvious signs that race is suitable to be "dutched"?

Hi GreenHorn, like backing a horse as normal, there are no hard and fast rules.

Sometimes you may think that one or two horses are way overpriced - if there is a bad value favourite for example. Maybe you cant make up your mind, and think 2 horses have an equal chance.

Races such as the grand national are good examples of where people dutch, as it is hard to find the one winner. In a huge field such as the grand national, Its nice to have 4 or 5 horses going, and still have an overall price of 2 or 3 to one.

I use a system for the selections in my dutching thread. Systems are a pre-defined set of rules or criteria. If the selections meet them criteria, they get backed (or dutched in my case).

When creating a system, most people start with one or two variables and build the system around it. For example; in the past, it has proven profitable to back a horse that has won in the past 8 days (although this is now widely known so much of the value is gone). This would be the starting block.
Then, if you notice another profitable trend, such as a trainer X having a profitable record at track Y , this could be another variable.

Most systems have a number of variables, but in this example, you would be looking out for trainer X's horses at track Y who have won in the past 8 days.


My dutching system is based on the past fate of the top 5 in the betting in non-handicaps. I researced the past records. Around 3 other variables are added, and when a race crops up, I usually end up with about 3 selections to dutch.


Some people love systems, some think it is a cop out, and love to study form. Personally, I like a mixed bag, and love to study form while I also love creating systems.
Similarly, when it comes to dutching, some purists frown upon it as it always involves backing a 'loser' and believe you should not back in a race unless you sure about a horse.


Like normal backing, If you decide to dutch, Its really up to yourself how you select them. Always paper trade for a while though, if you are new to something it will usually cost you money at first.

GreenHorn

Thanks lads, hugely interesting and something I'll look into...

scojones

Navan 3.05
Farmer Grand €40.54 @ 2.2
News Item €6.15 @ 14.5
Jack the Hough €3.30 @ 27

Return if any selection wins: €89.20

Current Balance(result pending): €882.27