Unusual weather!

piraka

How much of the current weather patterns that we are observing are due to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO/

Snowbie

Or is it how much of an El Nino affects the NAO.= more frequent and intense Atlantic storms?
Might be true as i have personally never seen nearly incessant storms from the Atlantic like we have had in the last 3 weeks.

piraka

I am a complete amateur, please bear with me. What got me interested was the long range european winter forecast that was given October a year ago. I had wondered on what basis they had made that forecast. This has led me on a voyage of discovery on the complexity of weather.


http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/2001archive/07-01archive/k070501a.html

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/98/23/12876



I did come across references made to tropical sea surface temperatures having an effect, I suppose ENSO is a culprit, affecting the Northern Annular Mode NAM, as the NAO is regional weather pattern, but I also found out that there are certain stratospheric events that have an effect, apparently these stratospheric events can have a larger impact than SST effects.

http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/ThompsonBaldwinWallace.pdf


http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/08486/EGU05-J-08486.pdf

http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparc/News14/14_Shepherd.html

http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News22/22_Hartmann.html

piraka

Teleconnections

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/new.teleconnections.shtml

Daily NAO index

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

NAO prediction

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

NAO 1950-2006

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/JFM_season_nao_index.shtml

piraka

Another interesting paper on the stratosphere and weather prediction.

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/baldwin_dunkerton_2001.pdf

Mothman

Snowbie wrote:

Or is it how much of an El Nino affects the NAO.= more frequent and intense Atlantic storms?
Might be true as i have personally never seen nearly incessant storms from the Atlantic like we have had in the last 3 weeks.

How memories seem to fade quite quickly. Though I do acknowledge that stats and memories are 2 different things.

First 20 days of Jan 05.
Recorded gale gusts (39mph) on all but 3 days, 10 days with gusts above 50mph inc 6 successive days. 18 days had mean above 10mph.

Last 15 days
10 days with gale gusts, 3 above 50mph. Every day with mean at least 10mph.


Then there was Feb 2002, the windiest month in my records.....


.....no I won't bore you any more

Snowbie

Mothman wrote:

How memories seem to fade quite quickly. Though I do acknowledge that stats and memories are 2 different things.

First 20 days of Jan 05.
Recorded gale gusts (39mph) on all but 3 days, 10 days with gusts above 50mph inc 6 successive days. 18 days had mean above 10mph.

This early in the season i might add:o

Although my highest gust was recorded in Jan 05,62mph which was a suspected Tornado which hit Clonee(overturned sheds,vans,slates off roofs) and moved East to my area.

Mothman

Snowbie wrote:

This early in the season i might add:o

Perhaps it didn't seem the same because we had the distraction of the possibility of snow and it wasn't quite as wet in the east either.