Cuba after Fidel

Zynks

Love him or hate him, if Fidel passes away before Bush leaves power, Cuba will be like a sitting duck waiting to be eaten alive by hyenas. Apart from Chavez, there is nobody out there willing to provide some protection to that lovely and brave country. It will be another sad episode in modern history.

Thrill

His brother will probably take over. Either that or there will be a civil war, maybe even a military coup.

You can be sure that the U.S. has got plans to try to influence the outcome of whatever happens.

Zynks

thrill wrote:

His brother will probably take over. Either that or there will be a civil war, maybe even a military coup.

You can be sure that the U.S. has got plans to try to influence the outcome of whatever happens.

I suspect there isn't sufficient opposition inside Cuba to fuel a civil war, though the younger generation don't remember what life was like before the revolution and they want what they think are the benefits of an open market. Problem is that they may not see that their future in an open economy is closer to Jamaica and the Dominican Republic (though with a much better educated population) than to the US. I think changes will occur and fast, but Mr. Bush's style will make it much more painful than necessary.

daithimac

I usually don't go in for such outlandish ideas but I think that due to the strong connection between cuba and the US through Miami exciles and also the trouble that has occured for the US as a result of Castros revolution there is a high chance that the americans will offer cuba statehood so as to prevent it from maintaining its communist system

Zynks

I can only imagine Bush hyperventilating just from the thought he may have something to claim as a foreign affairs "success story" at the end of his government. I think he will do whatever it takes to ensure he takes the credit for the changes.

Fratton Fred

I think Cuba's biggest threat is from McDonalds, KFC and Hilton hotels.

Sand

There was a good BBC feature on the news last night regarding Cuba and a reporter going in and talking to people and seeing where they live. Tried to find a supporting feature on the BBC website but not able to find it. No surprises in the TV peice though. Communism = poverty & oppression.

The BBC guy talked to a qualified teacher who quit his job and repairs 1950s TVs (as the BBC commented, electricity is cheap, but few can afford much in the way of appliances to utilise it) on the street because it pays more. He asked an old woman outside an empty store [good old communist stores] and asked her about her feelings on Castros illness: "Let him die!". Walked around residential areas in Havana and asked about peoples living conditions. One woman told him the living conditions were terrible. Maybe he was selecting people to fit his argument, but he had a very hard time talking to anyone. People fled and many seemed unwilling to allow themselves to be named or shown on camera - that last woman suddenly became afraid and told the BBC crew to stop filming as there would be repercussions for her.

Another woman was less frightened and shouted down at them from her balcony to come up and see her appartment - poverty stricken would be the best word for it. Crumbling walls, exposed wiring, crowded living conditions (They took advantage of high colonial style ceilings to build a loft area to fit in some extra beds - no air ventilation though). Basically, they were slum tenements.

Of course, thats the Cuba that Cubans live in. For visitors to El Commandantes socialist paradise theres the tourist industry which brings in vital hard currency, so anyone who works in this (doormen, waiters) are far wealthier than average cubans from tips alone. He talked to members of a Cuban music band at a hotel - started off nice and easy with questions about music and everything was fine, switched to politics and the poor guy he was talking too got tense and fidgety, nervously smiling and claiming they were all supporters of the cuban revolution here, we are all cubans etc etc - The BBC guy commented that he got the impression the presence of a Cuban cop over his shoulder might have worried him. Id imagine to work with tourists demands impeccable politics in Cuba.

Problem is that they may not see that their future in an open economy is closer to Jamaica and the Dominican Republic (though with a much better educated population) than to the US.

As that teacher turn street tv repairman highlighted (to me at least), the opportunities offered by education are much less when the economy is strangled by failed idealogies. Cubans are already living in horrific conditions, maybe its time to give them a chance to work with an economic system that fosters prosperity not equality through poverty? There is already a black market capitalist system operating [some guy was going around trying to sell a rather nice cake that he baked - wouldnt let his face be shown though], all that is required is for the communists and their secret police and failed idealogy to back off. I dont see any reason that the Cubans will be any more or less able to enjoy prosperity in a free market economy and a liberal political society.

mike65

When Castro falls off the log the USA should make it thier express duty to kill Cuban communism with love.

Seriously, every restriction placed on that county by Washington should be lifted immediately and it be made clear that whatever the Cuban people want they can get - no conditons.

Mike.

Zynks

Zynks wrote:

brave

That would accurately describe the people who risk life and limb to leave the country in ramshackle boats, desperate to flee a man who has had thousands of 'counter revolutionaries' (which word includes homosexuals) executed during his reign...

RedPlanet

Sand wrote:

Cubans are already living in horrific conditions, maybe its time to give them a chance to work with an economic system that fosters prosperity not equality through poverty?

Yeah but it's a matter for the Cubans to determine themselves.
Not some dictate by a superpower bully across the water.
Today, the cuban people consent to be governed by Castro.
So be it.

Sand

Today, the cuban people consent to be governed by Castro.
So be it.

If they truly do consent, why the single party political system? Why the political policing? Why do Cubans risk life and limb and Connor noted to escape?

Or have you, like Orwells nationalists, never even heard of that?

flogen

mike65 wrote:

When Castro falls off the log the USA should make it thier express duty to kill Cuban communism with love.

Seriously, every restriction placed on that county by Washington should be lifted immediately and it be made clear that whatever the Cuban people want they can get - no conditons.

Mike.

If they want an end to communism there, I agree.

It's been my opinion for a long time that the biggest weapon in Castro's arsenal has been US aggression towards the island and the sanctions that have been in place for decades.
You're poor? That's evil America's fault, not mine. Hungry? America's fault. House falling apart? America's fault. etc. etc.

Nothing creates national unity like a common enemy and nothing gives leaders a better distraction than aggression on their land... it's what Bush has used since 2001 (and which has wained considerably in recent times), so he should know better.

And while the sanctions made sense in order to stop Soviet missiles being put so close to the US, their logic has been lost since then (especially since the US happily deals with even more vicious countries like China).
It is really part of a larger problem of arrogance that the US embodies in the area; it's not about trying to contain the red threat, it's about trying to manipulate those around you to do your bidding (and it's leading to a leftist reaction across Latin America, such as the re-election of Chavez).
Syria is currently in the spotlight for trying to undermine the Lebanese government and have a more "suitable" replacement imposed there, how is this any different?

I'd like to see Cuba remain independent and perhaps take the Chinese route to capitalism (slow, but at least it's not a major social upheaval that would just leave the poor poor and the few rich).
It'd be no better if it was turned back to its existence under Batista, so I wouldn't go so far as to say that Castro's reign has been a bad thing, it just wasn't really any better than what they had before... bar the work done in the health and education sectors, which has been quite admirable.

Gurgle

Fratton Fred wrote:

I think Cuba's biggest threat is from McDonalds, KFC and Hilton hotels.

I saw a documentary called 'Cuba after Castro' about a year ago. There are literally dozens of American companies choosing sites for hotels on the beaches (from satellite photos) and getting everything ready to move in as soon as Castro dies and the sanctions are lifted.

RedPlanet

Sand wrote:

If they truly do consent, why the single party political system? Why the political policing? Why do Cubans risk life and limb and Connor noted to escape?

Or have you, like Orwells nationalists, never even heard of that?

Doesn't matter Sand.
People do all sorts of things for all sorts of reasons.
Just because a minority of people emigrate doesn't mean the Castro government is not legit or legal.
If you need examples of people whom no longer consented to be governed then you should look at the Cuban Revolution, the Iranian Revolution, the American Revolution, the French Revolution, the end of Apartheid in SA, the Russian Revolution (1917), etc.

Gurgle

RedPlanet wrote:

If you need examples of people whom no longer consented to be governed then you should look at the Cuban Revolution, the Iranian Revolution, the American Revolution, the French Revolution, the end of Apartheid in SA, the Russian Revolution (1917), etc.

Ireland 1916

Dr_Teeth

I can see this going horribly wrong unless the U.S. has the good sense and maturity to take a long-term, softly-softly, lead by example approach. Sadly I think it's more likely stick their oar in and **** the place up they have done with just about every south american country to date.

Zynks

flogen wrote:

You're poor? That's evil America's fault, not mine. Hungry? America's fault. House falling apart? America's fault. etc. etc.

Ireland as part of the EU is in a much stronger position than Cuba. Now imagine what would happen if the US placed restrictions on us similar to the one's in Cuba? I'd say there would be a lot of the same here (poverty, houses falling apart and possibly hunger), but of course, in the case of Cuba all of this is the fault of their communist government :rolleyes:

flogen wrote:

I'd like to see Cuba remain independent and perhaps take the Chinese route to capitalism

I met a Cuban national resident in Scandinavia who is part of a committee that has met Fidel on a few occasions to discuss Cuba's alternatives to open it's economy, and Fidel was willing to listen. If the US backed off, I think these changes would have occurred a long time ago

flogen wrote:

....I wouldn't go so far as to say that Castro's reign has been a bad thing, it just wasn't really any better than what they had before... bar the work done in the health and education sectors, which has been quite admirable.

They are just the best in Latin America and probably the best in developing countries worldwide. Education and health are two of the most basic pillars to develop a nation. Without the interference of the US Cuba would probably be a great place to live in.

Gurgle

Zynks wrote:

Without the interference of the US Cuba would probably be a great place to live in.

Without the sanctions, Cuba would be full of Americans on holiday.

Thomas_S_Hunterson

Sand wrote:

If they truly do consent, why the single party political system? Why the political policing? Why do Cubans risk life and limb and Connor noted to escape?

Or have you, like Orwells nationalists, never even heard of that?

Who's to say that a multi party democracy is the right system? We have no right to impose any sort of political structuring to anyother country, especially when no political system, our own included is flawless.

flogen

Zynks wrote:

Ireland as part of the EU is in a much stronger position than Cuba. Now imagine what would happen if the US placed restrictions on us similar to the one's in Cuba? I'd say there would be a lot of the same here (poverty, houses falling apart and possibly hunger), but of course, in the case of Cuba all of this is the fault of their communist government :rolleyes:

Huh? Where did I say it was all their fault? I know America has plenty to answer for as regards the Cuban situation, I just pointed out that no matter who is to blame and to what degree they are to blame, Castro can always deflect any guilt he carries onto their enemies (namely the USA)

They are just the best in Latin America and probably the best in developing countries worldwide. Education and health are two of the most basic pillars to develop a nation. Without the interference of the US Cuba would probably be a great place to live in.

Just to go back to your comparison with Ireland, we have had a world-class education system for a long time (hard to believe sometimes, but the curriculum is quite strong), but while health and education is important, without the right general economic model they're both somewhat futile. We had the Brain Drain in the 1970s and 80s because people were getting great educations but no jobs to enter into post-school/college. We're now seeing the complete opposite in the health system as foreign workers come to Ireland because of better wages and more jobs.
Even without the embargo a truely socialist/communist state cannot offer workers the same kind of money as capitalist countries, and there would be a need for massive economic reforms before Cuba became a generally great place to live (and I'm talking about the Cuba outside the tourist areas). The curtain being lifted by the US won't change the Cuban Government policies, they need to do that themselves.

Sand

Doesn't matter Sand.

Oh I know that Red, communists have always viewed people as economic inputs and indentured servants of the state. Ill just remember it doesnt matter the next time you get upset about US collusion with some dictator or repressive regime that *isnt* communist.

Weird, Cubas the shining example of the US *not* colluding with a repressive political regime that tortures and executes political dissidents and people are upset about it.

Just because a minority of people emigrate doesn't mean the Castro government is not legit or legal.

Have you ever read One World by Peter Singer? He writes about forging ethics for a globalised world [the enviroment, economy, international law, the role of the UN, human rights, etc, etc]. He constructs an ethical basis for intervention to uphold human rights, dismisses moral relativism but also notes that simply because a regime is not democratic it does not mean it is illegitimate. For him, and Ill admit its persuasive, all that is required is that the people have a mechanism [a referendum say] to confirm their desire that they do not have freedoms we would take for granted - i.e. the right to vote for another party other than Fianna Fail.

One party rule, the outlawing of rival parties and the crushing of political dissent through executions, arrests and torture does not offer Cubans the ability to express their belief in the legitmacy of their style of government.

Who's to say that a multi party democracy is the right system? We have no right to impose any sort of political structuring to anyother country, especially when no political system, our own included is flawless.

Whose to say human rights is the right idea? Who are we to complain if the Israelis bulldozes peoples homes, or if the Nigerians execute anti-Shell protestors? Whose to say Pinochets victims didnt *want* to be disapeared and murdered? Whose to say Idi Amin was a bad ruler? Whose to say Milosevic was a bad man for carrying out ethnic cleansing?

We have no right to impose any sort of political structuring to any other country especially when no political system, our own included is flawless.

Tapdancing christ on a pogostick.

I'd like to see Cuba remain independent and perhaps take the Chinese route to capitalism (slow, but at least it's not a major social upheaval that would just leave the poor poor and the few rich).

Complete with Tianemen Square, political oppression and execution, massive rioting and social upheaval - AND a HUGE rural poor/urban elite economic, social and legal divide? Yeah, Chinas a real success story in human terms.

I saw a documentary called 'Cuba after Castro' about a year ago. There are literally dozens of American companies choosing sites for hotels on the beaches (from satellite photos) and getting everything ready to move in as soon as Castro dies and the sanctions are lifted.

Yep, the Cubans need to rally to the beaches to beat off those FDI and employment opportunities. Everyone knows what a terrible mess FDI made of Ireland. Young people are actually coming HERE now looking for jobs. It was better back in the 50s with the nationalised command economy.

Can people explain to me why they hate Cuba so much? What did they ever do to us that they dont deserve the right to an economic system that works, and a government that serves their interests, not the other way round?

Gurgle

Sand wrote:

Yep, the Cubans need to rally to the beaches to beat off those FDI and employment opportunities. Everyone knows what a terrible mess FDI made of Ireland. Young people are actually coming HERE now looking for jobs. It was better back in the 50s with the nationalised command economy.

This appears to be a retort to my post, so I'll address it.

You make it sound as if FDI in Ireland was a kindness to us to bring us out of the dark ages, not international corporations setting up here because there was a relatively cheap well-educated workforce.

The opportunities in Cuba for FDI are heavily weighted to the advantage of the investors. They can move in with relative mountains of cash, hire incredibly cheap labour to build & run their facilities and run with profit margins in the 1000% range. The money made in tourism will leave the country, going into the coffers of global corporations.

The companys planning to set up in Cuba are not electronics manufacturers amd software houses. They aren't going to add new facets to the economy, they'll take it over the one they have. It certainly will grow, and the employment will benefit the country but I believe they would do better with slower growth and some economic independance.

If it were Intel, IBM, Xerox, Dell, Microsoft etc. then it would be a major boost to Cuba. These are business that can't be built up from scratch without investment of billions.

Every McDonalds built in Havana will be at the cost of a local restaurant. A first world economy like Ireland can afford to have it all but it could prevent Cuba from building such an economy.

Have a look at Egypt, where the majority of FDI is in the form of hotels and resorts. The have a massive tourist industry, billions spent there every year and are still a third world country. The egyptians only get the secondary benefits of the economy. International hotel chains make massive profits, egyptians will drive you round with a horse & carriage, or take you on a boat trip down the Nile for a euro per hour.

Sand

You make it sound as if FDI in Ireland was a kindness to us to bring us out of the dark ages, not international corporations setting up here because there was a relatively cheap well-educated workforce.

I dont know how I managed that - FDI is business, made on business ground. If people want to invest in Cuba its because it makes good business sense. Driving away foreign investment on the other hand....makes no sense.

They can move in with relative mountains of cash, hire incredibly cheap labour to build & run their facilities and run with profit margins in the 1000% range. The money made in tourism will leave the country, going into the coffers of global corporations.

Supply and demand - Cuban labour will be cheap for the same reason Irish labour was cheap - we and they are/were dirt poor and fleeing an economic disaster zone in droves. Foreign investment will also boost the local wage/conditions, as they have done in Ireland and indeed elsewhere.

The Cubans will make the cash the same way the Irish do - taxing the coporate profits before they leave the country, taxing the income of the new workforces, and taxing the various goods and services the tourists avail of [beginning from airport charges on in...] whilst in Cuba.

The companys planning to set up in Cuba are not electronics manufacturers amd software houses. They aren't going to add new facets to the economy, they'll take it over the one they have. It certainly will grow, and the employment will benefit the country but I believe they would do better with slower growth and some economic independance.

Why cant the Cubans attract this investment? With their famed education system they should have hordes of skilled employees, and by taking the Irish model [low wage, low corporate tax rate] they can attract investment - it will take work and campaigning, but why cant the Cubans do it? Is intel going to set up their factory on the beach? Is it a tradeoff between factories or hotels on the seashore?

Every McDonalds built in Havana will be at the cost of a local restaurant.

Again, supply and demand....

If it costs X to build a resteraunt, then thats what it costs to build a resteraunt.

Have a look at Egypt, where the majority of FDI is in the form of hotels and resorts. The have a massive tourist industry, billions spent there every year and are still a third world country. The egyptians only get the secondary benefits of the economy. International hotel chains make massive profits, egyptians will drive you round with a horse & carriage, or take you on a boat trip down the Nile for a euro per hour.

Egypts effectively a dictatorship with poor economic freedom. The poverty of its people is an indictment of its economic/political system and not FDI.

And again, supply and demand. Egypts cheap because A) people are poor - a Euro an hour goes further there than here. Its Egypt where the risk of being massacred by some crazy extremist group isnt all that far out there given the various bombings and massacres of tourists.

I honestly dont get the problem with FDI - when youre dirt poor, investment is what you welcome and and try to attract, not drive away. Ireland should know that better than anyone, comparing the 80s to today. Were the 80s somehow a golden age?