Ako near end of online satelite

luckylucky · 28-11-2006 10:02am #1

Down to last 8 players on paddypower satelite for the Macau, 5 to win tickets. I have just over average stack approx $18k, blinds are 800-1600 and going up in next hand.
I have AKo on button, cutoff raises all-in approx $11k.
Cutoff has been very aggressive pre-flop, I have him covered but it would leave me with just $7k and in deep trouble if he beats me, however if i win the hand I'll be sitting very comfortably.

A note on other stacks, 1 guy is out in front with about $30k, the rest range from the BB who is down to about 8k to about 20k, so all fairly tightly balanced.

Do you take the gamble here, or do you think it's not worth the risk?

handsfree · 28-11-2006 10:25am

gamble everytime, very worst case you're up against AA or KK any other PP and its 50:50. anything else and your laughing

sikes · 28-11-2006 10:33am

fold everytime for me. with the button passing and the blinds so high you can except action on this round to knock a few out.

if the table has been tight even more reason to fold and just pick up the blinds.

luckylucky · 28-11-2006 10:38am

handsfree wrote:

gamble everytime, very worst case you're up against AA or KK any other PP and its 50:50. anything else and your laughing

If it was a paying out tourney I would say you are definitely right, though I had no doubt I was the favourite, but the problem with AK is I can't be a massive favourite over any 2 cards. And though I'm far from safe with just a little over the average stack, still there's others under a bit more pressure and maybe it's better to leave the hand go grudgingly and wait for the opportunity to be the 1st to raise next time I have a reasonable hand.

Anyway as it turned out I went all-in, the BB called with KK, the original raiser had 53o , i flopped an ace, but the good ol tribeca special of two running clubs on turn and river give the hand to the 53o man.

Personally I think the decision is a close one, I think if they were maybe 9 or 10 players left then with an average stack it's worth the gamble, if it had of been 6 or 7 then I think it was a fold, with 8 players left - well still not sure but sure wish I had folded :rolleyes:

delanec8 · 28-11-2006 10:43am

Its a call for me. If he is as aggressive preflop as you say then he is pushing here with any ace. Since everyone is so tightly balanced there is no guarantee that you can limp into the tickets but winning here would allow you to do that.

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2006 10:49am

This post has been deleted.

ianmc38 · 28-11-2006 10:52am

Fold for me. You're not in any real trouble as yet, but it depends on how the cutoff had been playing before this hand...

luckylucky · 28-11-2006 10:57am

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I think you can argue for either play in this situation. Folded to him in the cutoff - his range is pretty big given his stack size. The forced 2400 in the pot will give you the right odds to go racing against an underpair, and you will see the villian turn over lower Aces and KQ a lot in this spot. There is no question that you would jam it in in a normal tournament - if you win the hand you will most likely get a ticket.

On the other hand, you can go another round of blinds without being forced to stick it in and, with the general stack sizes, there is a very real possibiliity that a couple of players will be el busto soon enough.

The real clincher for me is whether you think you are shrewd enough to fold and hang in there for a ticket. If you have been threading water for some time and are struggling a bit I would ship it in and silently pray that Villian has AQ.

Can't say I had been particularly struggling, I was playing sharply enough I felt. It's easy to say after the hand went pear shaped on me I suppose but there was defintely a real possibility that I could just have limped from where I was to the last 5

I took several seconds to make my mind up before I put those chips in, it was such a close and big decision, I'm kind of siding with it being the wrong one though.

cardshark202 · 28-11-2006 11:09am

Its a certain call. UL

sikes · 28-11-2006 1:17pm

cardshark202 wrote:

Its a certain call. UL

its soooo much cooler to fold big hands approaching the bubble in a sat.

Russh · 28-11-2006 5:54pm

He took a beat a couple of hands earlier which cost him about 10K and knocked him down to 4.5k, after that he was shipping it in constantly. I think your call was perfectly reasonable considering his plays and would call him every time. I felt his range was pretty big.. (not as big as 53??? though)

I didn't expect the KK to turn up on BB. I was rooting for you to knock the two of them out... If you took the pot you had a ticket, there's no guarantee if you folded you would have got one..

cardshark202 · 28-11-2006 6:18pm

sikes wrote:

its soooo much cooler to fold big hands approaching the bubble in a sat.

You think lucky lucky has a greater than 60% chance to win a ticket? Cos I don't.

luckylucky · 28-11-2006 6:30pm

cardshark202 wrote:

You think lucky lucky has a greater than 60% chance to win a ticket? Cos I don't.

jeez thx a lot - do you have me down for being that bad

.
5/8 = 62.5%, so that would be an average stack's chances of making it given that player is the table average, my stack was slightly bigger than average also, so say my chances all things being equal here are about 65% of making it if I don't call, my chances are actually only just over 63% even against 53o, I think it wasn't worth the risk, this seems like the umpteenth time I've been in this spot and I just miss out, next time I think I'll side on being a tight a$$.

sikes · 28-11-2006 6:45pm

cardshark202 wrote:

You think lucky lucky has a greater than 60% chance to win a ticket? Cos I don't.

yeah i do.

cardshark202 · 28-11-2006 6:51pm

luckylucky wrote:

jeez thx a lot - do you have me down for being that bad .
5/8 = 62.5%, so that would be an average stack's chances of making it given that player is the table average, my stack was slightly bigger than average also, so say my chances all things being equal here are about 65% of making it if I don't call, my chances are actually only just over 63% even against 53o, I think it wasn't worth the risk, this seems like the umpteenth time I've been in this spot and I just miss out, next time I think I'll side on being a tight a$$.

With the presence of some larger stacks this is not the case.

luckylucky · 28-11-2006 6:59pm

cardshark202 wrote:

With the presence of some larger stacks this is not the case.

lol, I'm finding it amusing that I'm criticising my own play while others including yourself defend it. I do think it's a close decision though, there is only 1 real large stack though, I can't rem exactly what position i was in, I think it was either 3rd or 4th, so position wise while I'm not comfortable I'm not desperate either.

sikes · 28-11-2006 7:00pm

cardshark202 wrote:

With the presence of some larger stacks this is not the case.

i was thinking that if the varience in stack sizes was greater, he would have a greater chance of a ticket. however i think the stacks are relatively tight, biggest being 1.5times average and hence more reason to call here, however its still a fold i think.

i could be wrong here

Ako near end of online satelite

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