The "good enough" form system

scojones

Over the past while I have been paper trading with this, and I will continue to do so on here. The form of it isn't that great, but nevertheless I'm going to stick with it and see how I get on over the next couple of weeks. I will not be backing these selections, and this is all monopoly money. For now I am not excluding any races yet, so for example the qualifier from the extremely dodgy first race at Hereford is included. Over time I'm sure I will limit this to a couple of types of races. I am not going to include AW racing. There is no points in this, and it is considered level stakes on all horses.

Tomorrows qualifiers are as follows:

Hereford 12.40 Mount Sandel 1st @ 1/2
Hereford 1.10 William Butler 2nd @ 4/6
Hereford 1.40 Papillon De Iena 2nd @ 1/2
Hereford 2.10 Lawyer Des Ormeaux unplaced
Hereford 2.40 Ryhope Chief 2nd @ 6/1
Hereford 3.10 Nenuphar Collonges 1st @ 8/11
Hereford 3.40 Onefourfun unplaced

Results:
2 winners from 7.
Total staked: 7.00
Total returned: 3.22
Profit/Loss: -3.78

connundrum

I was going to try a 'Backing the Tipsters Favourite' system (lazy or wha )for €5 each day for a week, but I had poor luck with it the last time I did it

This looks more interesting, and I'll be playing it safe with a max of €1 per bet at the available price each morning with paddypower.com. I won €35 yesterday on random bets so I've that to spend.

Note. This is purely for fun, I do not bet regularly and am just looking to test a system.

Cheers SJones!

scojones

I'd recommend not following it at all mate. It has not been doing well on paper, which is why I am paper trading with it now. There are better systems on here to follow, even if it is only a fun bet.

connundrum

Meh, we'll see after today. If I win, break even or lose less than €2 then I'll carry on, any more than a €2 loss and I'll try something else.

Recklessness ftw

scojones

As you can see, connundrum, this is not to be followed. It may prove to be better than the old placepot system I used, however. Time will tell. I'll update the level stakes bank later.

connundrum

Oh well Down €3.86.. thought it was gonna be plane sailing after the first, but not to be

scojones

I'll get ya a pint the next time I'm in Dublin.

scojones

So let me just explain how this system works. The name says it all really, horses that have finished 4th of better in their last race are selected, of these the horse with the best form over their last 5 races gets the vote. So if we have a horse whos form is 22251 and a horse with 35221 then the 35221 horse is selected because it has performed better (placing wise) in its last three races.

Here are tomorrows selections (I'm doing complete overkill on this):

Leicester 1.00 Marodima 3rd @ 11/8 (-1)
Leicester 2.00 Flash Cummins 1st @ 8/11 (+1.72)
Leicester 2.30 Nobelix 1st @ 4/9 (+1.44)
Leicester 3.00 Original Thought unplaced (-1)
Leicester 3.30 Tashkandi unplaced (-1)
Market Rasen 1.50 Kilbeggan Blade 1st @ 5/4 (+2.25)
Market Rasen 3.20 Seafire Lad unplaced (-1)
Thurles 2.45 Hedgehunter unplaced (-1)
Wincanton 1.10 Original Fly 1st @ 4/1 (+5)
Wincanton 1.40 The Sneakster unplaced (-1)
Wincanton 2.10 Flying Enterprise 1st @ 5/6 (+1.83)
Wincanton 2.40 Figaro Du Rocher unplaced (-1)
Wincanton 3.10 Rosses Point 1st @ 6/4 (+2.5)

Today's Results:
6 winners from 13.
Total Results:
8 winners from 20.

Strike Rate: 40%
Balance Coming Forward: -3.78
Total Returned(including stakes): +7.74
Current Balance: +3.96

scojones

The day started well but ended bad enough. So far we have eight winners, three seconds, one third and eight unplaced.

scojones

Day 3 of 100.
Exeter 1.10 Greenhill Bramble 2nd @ 9/4 (-1)
Exeter 1.40 Tora Bora 2nd @ 13/2 (-1)
Exeter 2.45 Minella Tipperary unplaced (-1)
Sandown 1.30 Idris 1st @ 5/1 (+6.0)
Sandown 2.35 Star De Mohaison 1st @ 1/2 (+1.50)
Sandown 3.40 My Turn Now 1st @ 10/11 (+1.90)

Today's Results:
3 winners from 6.
Total Results:
11 winners from 26.
6 placed and 9 unplaced.

Strike Rate: 42.30%
Balance Coming Forward: +3.96
Total Returned(including stakes): +9.40
Current Balance: +13.36

Tush

The "good enough" form system is good enough so far sj,as long as you keep the balance in the black,thats good enough.

scojones

Cheers Tush! It's a long road yet, but I'll see how things are after 100 days or so. Not confident about tomorrows selections at all but I want this to be consistent so I have to go with it!

scojones

Not too bad a day considering. Fairly disappointed with Minella Tipperary though.

scojones

Day 4 of 100

Fakenham 1.20 Altay (-1)
Fakenham 1.50 Allaboveboard (-1)
Fakenham 2.20 Cool Roxy (-1)
Fakenham 2.50 Frosty Jak 1st @ 13/8 (+2.63)
Fakenham 3.20 Beauchamp Star (-1)

Today's Results:
1 winner from 5.
Total Results:
12 winners from 31.

Strike Rate: 38.70%
Balance Coming Forward: +13.36
Total Returned(including stakes): -1.37
Current Balance: +11.99

scojones

Day 5 of 100.

Folkestone 12.10 Leadaway unplaced (-1)
Folkestone 12.40 Kings Signal 2nd @ 13/8 (-1)
Folkestone 1.10 Forest Miller unplaced (-1)
Folkestone 1.40 Major Jon unplaced (-1)
Folkestone 2.10 Buckland Gold unplaced (-1)
Folkestone 2.40 Dr Mann 2nd @ 4/1 (-1)
Folkestone 3.10 Evelith Forrest 1st @ 15/8 (+2.88)

Today's Results:
1 winner from 7.
Total Results:
13 winners from 38.

Strike Rate: 34.21%
Balance Coming Forward: +11.99
Total Returned(including stakes): -3.12
Current Balance: +8.87

scojones

Shocking!