Another pot/implied odds query

MrPillowTalk

Stacks
me 16k
villain 9k, villain is conor tate very good, leaning towards lag type player.

I am utg with JJ, villain is sb. 20/40nl 5 handed

I open for 140 my standard opening bet, villain flat calls we take a flop hu.

Flop comes 9d 10h Jd

Villain checks I bet 200 villain cr to 400 hmmm thats a very odd bet, I think either A)he has air and is seeing if my bet is just continuation bet and he will prob fold to a raise B)he has a set and we will get the money in on the turn regardless if I flat call or C) he has a draw probably a flush and str8 draw.

I flat call the 200 thinking that if he has either A or B its my most profitable play or if he has C I can get away from it on the turn should the draw complete.

Turn comes 8s

Villain leads for 700, now I am 90% sure he has made the straight as my play looks like Im drawing so if he had the set Im fairly certain he checks.

Now for the question, I am nearly positive that if I call this and the board pairs I he will continue to lead and will allmost definately call a raise on the end, is the price good enough to call.

If its not I made another bad call.

Mellor

If I counted right its 700 into a 1800 pot.
You have 10 outs, from 46 cards. So need to be getting pot odds of 3.6/1.
700 @ 3.6/1= 2520
So you need to get another 720 or more out of him on the river to make this a call. He has to lead for at least 700.
So I have a feeling you made the right call and were unlucky.



If I have made a mistake please correct.

Gholimoli

140+140+40=320 this is the pot on the flop

flop(320)

you lead for 200 and call his 200 reraise= 800

turn(1120)
he leads for 700.
you have ten outs assuming you will have to improve to win.
you have 20% equity or 4:1 dog.
you need to get 4:1 from the pot.
1820/700=2.6:1

however if you call then the pot is 2520 on the river.
he will call a 2K bet on the river by you if you hit me thinks so basically your calling 700 to win 2K+1820 =3820

3820/700=5.4:1
so basically if you think he will call a 2K bet at the end you will have more than enough implied odds to call the 700 bet.
your river bet does not even have to be that big as with a 2K bet you are getting an overlay.
something around 1.5K river bet would make your call a good one.

ianmc38

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Stacks
me 16k
villain 9k, villain is conor tate very good, leaning towards lag type player.

I am utg with JJ, villain is sb. 20/40nl 5 handed

I open for 140 my standard opening bet, villain flat calls we take a flop hu.

Flop comes 9d 10h Jd

Villain checks I bet 200 villain cr to 400 hmmm thats a very odd bet, I think either A)he has air and is seeing if my bet is just continuation bet and he will prob fold to a raise B)he has a set and we will get the money in on the turn regardless if I flat call or C) he has a draw probably a flush and str8 draw.

I flat call the 200 thinking that if he has either A or B its my most profitable play or if he has C I can get away from it on the turn should the draw complete.

Turn comes 8s

Villain leads for 700, now I am 90% sure he has made the straight as my play looks like Im drawing so if he had the set Im fairly certain he checks.

Now for the question, I am nearly positive that if I call this and the board pairs I he will continue to lead and will allmost definately call a raise on the end, is the price good enough to call.

If its not I made another bad call.

Yes. If he'll bet regardless and call a raise then you're undoubtedly getting the right price.

At the moment it's 2-1 to call.

The odds of the board pairing(or the last J) are about 3.5-1

If he bets half pot on river, you minraise and he calls then its +EV...

PS:I suck at maths so take what i say with a saltmine...

fuzzbox

A Q may also give you a split, and you might bluff a third diamond.

Position rules.

I call

poker4life

Gholimoli wrote:

so basically if you think he will call a 2K bet at the end you will have more than enough implied odds to call the 700 bet.
.

No, Mellor was right.

It's roughly $300 in the pot preflop.

Another $800 on the flop, so there's now approx $1100.
He bets $700, making it an $1,800 pot.

Therefore the pot is offering you 1800/700, or approx 2.5/1 on your call.

But the actual odds of u hitting are 3.6/1.

So you need to ensure that your opponent will put in at least $700 on the river (so you are in effect getting 2,500/700 or 3.6/1), giving you the necessary implied odds to call.

If he puts in $2K on river like Gholimoli says, then your implied odds are actually almost 5.5/1 - way above the 3.6/1 you actually need.

eggie

Board J T 9 8

Hand J J

Need a J (1), T (3), 9(3) , 8 (3) pot 1,820

10 cards out of 46 left = 3.6/1

To call the 700 you would need be sure to getting a return 700 x 3.6 if board pairs = 2,520

2520 - 1820 in pot = 700 short of hte correct odds. you need him to call a 700 bet or higher on the river if it pairs for your implied odds to make it a call.

I think a call is fine, although i,m no expert.

Mellor

Actually i miscounted in my first post. I put the villian in the BB by mistake.
So if the Villian leads for 700 again. Before you call/raise, you will have gotten the right odds. And even if he will fold to a bet you should call. 100% call
So what happened?

MrPillowTalk

Yeah I got some abuse for calling (from railbirds not players) but I was sure I was getting the price.

The board paired the 9 he led for 1k I made it 4k and he called and mucked.

Mellor

A perfect example of implied odds MrPillowTalk

BigCityBanker

PillowTalk - you spoke last week on a thread that you had been receiving some form of spiritual coaching? Are you getting this coaching from BOPS?

wd.