1-2 NL Hand From Drogheda

cardshark202

Stacks:
Me: €1k+
Villain: €650 ish

I've been playing very tight, table is too mad to play any other way. Villain has has been playing pretty tag, making a few loose preflop calls for small amounts, but in general hasn't put much money in the pot without a big hand.

I open to 10 with JJ in EP, villain cold calls 2 to my left. CO I calls too.

FLOP(33):
JT5r

I lead for 20, villain calls, CO folds.

TURN(73):
4h putting possible heart draw out there.

I bet 50, villain calls.

RIVER(173):
K

I bet 100, villain raises to 300.

Call or shove the rest in? Obviously I think folding is out of the question. Villain is biteme btw.

ianmc38

I'd probably just call. Qh9h is a serious possibility. KhQh is another possible holding, as is KJ or a smaller. Alot would depend on how tight biteme was playing.

brianmc

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd probably just call. Qh9h is a serious possibility. KhQh is another possible holding, as is KJ or a smaller. Alot would depend on how tight biteme was playing.

IIRC he has a particular fondness for Q9.

sikes

min riase and fold to a push.

Will get paid off by smaller sets and maybe some 2 pairs. If he has Q9, KK meh and if he has AQ just take the pot from him and run out the door.

Lafortezza

Did the flush draw get there? If it did just call. If it didn't then I like a raise.
Biteme almost never has KK here imo, if he has Q9 then punch him in the face!

phantom_lord

If he's likely to call with crap like q9soooted, pf then I'd just call.

Otherwise I'd be thinking something like jt/kj/1010 and it's an easy shove.

Samba

Q9 is being represented here, i'd look for physical info and either call or raise based on that.

on the interweb i'd call.

DapperGent

If you shove I reckon you get called by the straight, all undersets and some two pair hands, I think KK is fairly to very unlikely. That makes a push profitable I think but I could be wrong.

biteme

to answer luke. yes the hearts got there. but no i didn't have them.

When I raised Reggie on the end I was pretty sure he would only call or fold. Didn't think he was anywhere near as strong as top set.

Marq

I flat call. when the hearts and the straight (and unlikely overset) all hit, I doubt villian calls with anything that JJ is beating.

DapperGent

If the hearts got there I just call.

sikes

DapperGent wrote:

If the hearts got there I just call.

yeah i agree. 2 pairs are more unlikely to pay you off, and i think it would be weird to see 55 played this way.

ianmc38

Certainly wouldnt ship it in when the hearts got there....

cardshark202

I must say though that I didnt recall the river being a heart, though if it was I must have ruled out a flush at the time. Also, if I re-raise Dave on the river he only has 290ish left to call to win a pot of just over 1k.

Ste05

I certainly wouldn't be worried about the back door flush.

I'd discount Q9 slightly if he was playing tight PF, I'd be suprised to see KK due to his passive line. In fact the villains play confuses me and I'm struggling to see a hand that we're losing too, hence I push. 2 pair or under set would be my bet for what he has.

Gholimoli

Marq wrote:

I flat call. when the hearts and the straight (and unlikely overset) all hit, I doubt villian calls with anything that JJ is beating.

.

robinlacey

call

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

I certainly wouldn't be worried about the back door flush.

I'd discount Q9 slightly if he was playing tight PF, I'd be suprised to see KK due to his passive line. In fact the villains play confuses me and I'm struggling to see a hand that we're losing too, hence I push. 2 pair or under set would be my bet for what he has.

on a str/flush/higher set board do you really think a push will get called by a hand that is behind JJJ ?
he still has 300 behind so i wouldnt exactly say he is committed.

Ste05

Yes I would expect him to be pot committed, and I'd expect him to call with an underset and I'll at least let him decide about the 2 pair. I just think we have the best hand here, if he has Q9, sobeit.

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

Yes I would expect him to be pot committed, and I'd expect him to call with an underset and I'll at least let him decide about the 2 pair. I just think we have the best hand here, if he has Q9, sobeit.

as you know its not about having the best hand if we come over the top.
its about him calling with a worse hand .
i agree that we have the best hand here a good % of times.
however i disgree that if we push we get called by a worse hand enough to make it +EV infact quite opposite.
look at the hand Ste,a rather tight player has called our bets on everystreet and now raises when there is a str/flush/higher set there.
do you still think he would call a push with a habd behind JJJ;) ?
i may be bluffing by all means and representing the flush/str or what ever but he would not call the push with it hence i see no reason for pushing.

Ste05

Gholimoli wrote:

as you know its not about having the best hand if we come over the top.
its about him calling with a worse hand .
i agree that we have the best hand here a good % of times.

As I'm sure you know I'm normally the one advocating just calling the river, but as you can see from my analysis below I think we have the best hand here a much higher % of the time than you. Hence I'm fairly sure we have the best hand and so I'll let him decide if he wants to call with a weaker hand. 1010 would be hard pressed to fold, Only Q9, KK, AQ and JJ beat him or some miracle backdoor flush and similarly with 55, KQ I'm sure will fold, J10, KJ, K10 likewise, but I'll at least give him the chance to call.

Gholimoli wrote:

however i disgree that if we push we get called by a worse hand enough to make it +EV infact quite opposite.
look at the hand Ste,a rather tight player has called our bets on everystreet and now raises when there is a str/flush/higher set there.
do you still think he would call a push with a habd behind JJJ;) ?

I'm re-raising here because of the way the hand was played, I think our main difference is probably the amount of times you think he has the flush. I'm almost entirely ignoring it.

Gholimoli wrote:

i may be bluffing by all means and representing the flush/str or what ever but he would not call the push with it hence i see no reason for pushing.

Obviously, I'm not trying to get more money out of bluffs, (I'm probably misreading you here though) but TBH I don't care if he was bluffing, and I certainly don't think I'm turning my hand into a bluff, if that's your point. We win the same amount by raising as we do by calling, (against a bluff) however as you can see below I'm fairly sure we have the best hand here and so I'm trying to maximise my winnings against 1010, 55, KJ, J10, AK, KQ etc. whether he calls or not is his problem. The whole concept of not raising the river is not just about will he call with weaker hands, it's mainly about not raising if we're only going to be called by a better hand and a weaker hand will always fold. i.e. Risk v Reward. In this case I don't think there is a better hand for him to have. Hence I'm concentrating on the reward rather than on the risk. As IMO the reward far outweighs the risk. And I'll let him decide if he wants to call with a weaker hand.

And my reading of the hand certainly seems to be hugely different than yours. It's not just the case of him calling bets that need to be worrying us, it's the story he's trying to tell and my reading of the hand is different from you. As I said above I think a HUGE % of the time we have the best hand and here's my reading of the hand.

I'm not bothered about the backdoor flush. (I assume this is our biggest difference) [EDIT: IMO there are exactly 2 holdings where his flush hit, KQh and Q9h - hence why I'm not bothered by it] So I'm completely discounting it, just as Cardshark did. With that out of the way there are only 3 hands that are beating us. AQ, Q9 and KK.

I can't see AQ calling both the flop and turn here, hence I'm discounting it.
KK would have raised before now, will KK call PF, then again on a flop of JTx and again on the turn when yet another draw arose? No. Hence I'm discounting it too.

Q9, is my main concern, but I think calling with this hand PF would not be done by a decent player. Hence why I'm discounting it too. I'm sure alot of people disagree with me, but this is my reading of this hand and I'm happy either way, even if I'm proved wrong by the results.

And yet again I think the main difference between me and most of the other people in this thread is how worried we are by the back door flush and the amount of times he'll call a raise PF with Q9, but those are my assumptions, feel free to disagree.

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

As I'm sure you know I'm normally the one advocating just calling the river, but as you can see from my analysis below I think we have the best hand here a much higher % of the time than you. Hence I'm fairly sure we have the best hand and so I'll let him decide if he wants to call with a weaker hand. 1010 would be hard pressed to fold, Only Q9, KK, AQ and JJ beat him or some miracle backdoor flush and similarly with 55, KQ I'm sure will fold, J10, KJ, K10 likewise, but I'll at least give him the chance to call.

I'm re-raising here because of the way the hand was played, I think our main difference is probably the amount of times you think he has the flush. I'm almost entirely ignoring it.

Obviously, I'm not trying to get more money out of bluffs, (I'm probably misreading you here though) but TBH I don't care if he was bluffing, and I certainly don't think I'm turning my hand into a bluff, if that's your point. We win the same amount by raising as we do by calling, (against a bluff) however as you can see below I'm fairly sure we have the best hand here and so I'm trying to maximise my winnings against 1010, 55, KJ, J10, AK, KQ etc. whether he calls or not is his problem. The whole concept of not raising the river is not just about will he call with weaker hands, it's mainly about not raising if we're only going to be called by a better hand and a weaker hand will always fold. i.e. Risk v Reward. In this case I don't think there is a better hand for him to have. Hence I'm concentrating on the reward rather than on the risk. As IMO the reward far outweighs the risk. And I'll let him decide if he wants to call with a weaker hand.

And my reading of the hand certainly seems to be hugely different than yours. It's not just the case of him calling bets that need to be worrying us, it's the story he's trying to tell and my reading of the hand is different from you. As I said above I think a HUGE % of the time we have the best hand and here's my reading of the hand.

I'm not bothered about the backdoor flush. (I assume this is our biggest difference) [EDIT: IMO there are exactly 2 holdings where his flush hit, KQh and Q9h - hence why I'm not bothered by it] So I'm completely discounting it, just as Cardshark did. With that out of the way there are only 3 hands that are beating us. AQ, Q9 and KK.

I can't see AQ calling both the flop and turn here, hence I'm discounting it.
KK would have raised before now, will KK call PF, then again on a flop of JTx and again on the turn when yet another draw arose? No. Hence I'm discounting it too.

Q9, is my main concern, but I think calling with this hand PF would not be done by a decent player. Hence why I'm discounting it too. I'm sure alot of people disagree with me, but this is my reading of this hand and I'm happy either way, even if I'm proved wrong by the results.

And yet again I think the main difference between me and most of the other people in this thread is how worried we are by the back door flush and the amount of times he'll call a raise PF with Q9, but those are my assumptions, feel free to disagree.

Ste im not particularly worried about the back door flush at all.
look at the hand.
the flop makes Q9 open ended so he has that from the flop.
now he calls bets on every street playing very passiv indicating a draw.
or he could be slow playing a set.
i dont think he is slow playing a set cuz he would raise the turn IMO .
but instead after calling on every street he now raises our bet after every possible draw gets there.
if i was villain i would certainly not play 55,TT,or even KK like that.
would you play any of then hands like that Ste?
again im not worried about the back door flush ,if anything i think he more than likely has Q9 here but its the combination of the hands that beat us and the fact that he raises our bet when all the draws have come in.

cardshark202

Well if the river was a heart I certainly didnt notice it which is strange as I am certain I would have just called if it was a heart. IF the river was not a heart, as I thought, what is the general consensus then?

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

Well if the river was a heart I certainly didnt notice it which is strange as I am certain I would have just called if it was a heart. IF the river was not a heart, as I thought, what is the general consensus then?

then i would be more inclined to shove,or even if river was a heart but didnt make the str there.

hotspur

Ste05 wrote:

I can't see AQ calling both the flop and turn here, hence I'm discounting it.

I wouldn't discount AQ at all, it's no reflection on biteme but you'll get shown that quite a lot in these situations at these stakes.

Ste05

Gholimoli wrote:

look at the hand.
the flop makes Q9 open ended so he has that from the flop.
now he calls bets on every street playing very passiv indicating a draw.
or he could be slow playing a set.

I realise that, but I just don't think a solid tight player who obviously knows Reggie will call a raise PF with Q9. And just because there's one possible (yet IMO unlikely) hand that beats us, it's not enough to make me slow down.

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont think he is slow playing a set cuz he would raise the turn IMO .
but instead after calling on every street he now raises our bet after every possible draw gets there.

Well no realistic draws got there, only really KK has improved to beat a set. And I think the chances of a slow played set are higher then Q9.

Gholimoli wrote:

if i was villain i would certainly not play 55,TT,or even KK like that.
would you play any of then hands like that Ste?

Well I'm not in the hand, but probably not, and that includes Q9. But I don't know what the table dynamics were like except that the game was wild. So who knows. But there's more chance I'd be there with 55 or 1010 than Q9.

Gholimoli wrote:

again im not worried about the back door flush ,if anything i think he more than likely has Q9 here but its the combination of the hands that beat us and the fact that he raises our bet when all the draws have come in.

But this is my whole point, IMO there isn't a combination of hands that can beat us, there's just Q9 and that is unlikely. 1010, 55 other 2 pair hands that just hit are much more likely. I'm sure I'm just digging myself a hole, and he had Q9, but I'm happy with my push here.

cardshark202

Actually, I'm infinitely more likely to have AQ here than Dave and he never has AQ here unless he's on some sort of mega-super-ultra passive calling station tilt

Goodluck2me

Is the dave you refer to the dealer in the Fitz with glasses?

cardshark202

goodluck2me wrote:

Is the dave you refer to the dealer in the Fitz with glasses?

yup

cooker3

goodluck2me wrote:

Is the dave you refer to the dealer in the Fitz with glasses?

Yeah, thats him

sikes

cardshark202 wrote:

Actually, I'm infinitely more likely to have AQ here than Dave and he never has AQ here unless he's on some sort of mega-super-ultra passive calling station tilt

Completely OT:

does that mean u never have AQ too?

whats infinity times 0. I get one, but that is not right, is it?

cardshark202

sikes wrote:

Completely OT:

does that mean u never have AQ too?

whats infinity times 0. I get one, but that is not right, is it?

I could quite easily have AQ here, cos I like to three-barrel a lot anyway

sikes

cardshark202 wrote:

I could quite easily have AQ here, cos I like to three-barrel a lot anyway

yeah i know thats in your range, just wondering what infinity times 0 is.

feck i will never get my work done now

biteme

sikes wrote:

yeah i know thats in your range, just wondering what infinity times 0 is.

feck i will never get my work done now

It's zero.

sikes

biteme wrote:

It's zero.

1/0 = infinity

1 = infinity * 0

hotspur

The ironic pokeresque answer to infinity question is "it depends"

cardshark202

Ok well, as I was almost certain the river was not the Kh, I value pushed and Dave, the calling station fish that he is called with the non-nut straight. I thought his turn call was questionable to say the least so I didn't expect to see Q9 at all, I thought KJ was by far the most likely holding. Although there are implied odds to stack me I have to have a huge hand like a set for that to happen. If I had anything less I would most likely call or fold. And he didn't even think I was that strong. And I am a bit of a calling station so I might struggle to fold a hand if he misses and tries a bluff.