Odd situation. What's your play

brianmc

Final Table of a 54 player MTT.

You are down to 4 players. One player on your immediate right is having the most surreal luckbox night of his life. His strategy is to make crazy bets preflop and call with the slightest sniff of a gutshot or overcard to the flop.

He has made it to the final table against the odds. He has about 200,000 of the 377,000 chips in play.

Luckbox is UTG + 1 and hasn't adjusted to the blind increase. The blinds are 2000 - 4000. He raises to 10K. This means he has two cards. He raises 95% of hands.

You are on the SB.

Luckbox manages to expose on of his two random cards. It is a red 7.

You have 54K in chips and J8o. what is your action?

If you push he is 90% likely to call. This does not reflect the quality or value of his hand.

cardshark202

Easy fold. You are behind a random hand.

brianmc

cardshark202 wrote:

You are behind a random hand.

He has a seven.

cardshark202

Yeah but I still fold here. Wait for an ace at least. Or two face cards or a pair.

Hitman Actual

Interesting. You're ~60/40 favourite against 7x (according to pokerstove). That's a big edge, and with 4 players left, you don't have much time to wait for a better one. What are the other chip stacks, and prize payout?

Rb

J8o?I'm folding and waiting for a better spot.

Hitman Actual

rb_ie wrote:

J8o?I'm folding and waiting for a better spot.

What about K8o?

BigCityBanker

lenny_leonard wrote:

What about K8o?

I think im pushing K8o here - a little bit more protection against his unknown card.

cardshark202

lenny_leonard wrote:

Interesting. You're ~60/40 favourite against 7x (according to pokerstove). That's a big edge, and with 4 players left, you don't have much time to wait for a better one. What are the other chip stacks, and prize payout?

Yes but I don't think he's raising any 7 here.

White Knight

With circa 55% of chips in play and with the other 3 players probably around the same stack size I raise any 2 here, bullying them, as they will not want to go out next on any half a hand imo

brianmc

cardshark202 wrote:

Yes but I don't think he's raising any 7 here.

Ummm... You may be right. He is raising nearly any seven though.

White_Knight wrote:

With circa 55% of chips in play and with the other 3 players probably around the same stack size I raise any 2 here, bullying them, as they will not want to go out next on any half a hand imo

This has nothing to do with his stack size. On the fourth hand of the first level (25-50) he raised to 1000 with T4o. The pattern continued.

Hitman Actual

cardshark202 wrote:

Yes but I don't think he's raising any 7 here.

Acknowledged. BTW, I'm not advocating a call, but I'm not sure that it's the clear fold that everyone so far is saying. I'd really like to know the stack sizes, and payout structure.

brianmc

lenny_leonard wrote:

Acknowledged. BTW, I'm not advocating a call, but I'm not sure that it's the clear fold that everyone so far is saying. I'd really like to know the stack sizes, and payout structure.

377,000 chips in play.

I have 54,000.

Villain has about 210,000... he is still stacking them after his 4 high flush draw beat a set of sevens.

Other two players are probably about evenish... say, 50K each.

Payout:

1st - €1710
2nd - €960?
3rd - €580?
4th - €380

In my mind first is the golden egg but I obviously wouldn't turn down 2nd or 3rd over 4th.

I can play this guy. It's easy. I don't think I can play him with only 54K in chips at 2000 - 4000 when we're four handed though.

sikes

stop n go for a laugh, or has he got no chance of folding if he has a over card on a flop?

Hitman Actual

brianmc wrote:

I don't think I can play him with only 54K in chips at 2000 - 4000 when we're four handed though.

That's where I'm coming from as well. You're not outplaying anyone with this stack/blind size. Saying that you can wait for a better chance is a bit silly, as the money is going in shortly anyway, and you'll still usually only be a 60/40 favourite unless you hit a lucky monster.

Looking at the prize pool as well, I think it makes very little difference if you fold now, or push and get it AI against this donkey. ICM will give a maths answer, but I couldn't be bothered doing one of those now! Maybe later. But I don't think it matters much either way.

sikes wrote:

stop n go for a laugh, or has he got no chance of folding if he has a over card on a flop?

That went through my head as well. It could be worth a try.

brianmc

Right. I misreported things in the first post.

Villain was not UTG but UTG+1 and I was on the button. Hence, stop 'n go is a no go.

Anyway, long story short - I pushed - blinds folded - villain called and tabled Q7o. A Queen on the flop sealed the deal. Ho humm...

Rb

brianmc wrote:

Right. I misreported things in the first post.

Villain was not UTG but UTG+1 and I was on the button. Hence, stop 'n go is a no go.

Anyway, long story short - I pushed - blinds folded - villain called and tabled Q7o. A Queen on the flop sealed the deal. Ho humm...

Unlucky.

Looks like it was his lucky day anyway.