Rugby Handicaps betting 25-11-06

muller_x

ts the last round of internationals so lets hit Paddy Power for a few bob

My own thinking is

Australia -7 v scotland
wales + 20 v all blacks
Ireland -18 v pacific islands
South africa +4 v england
France -9 v argentina

and if i had to pick three it would be

oz,wales and ireland

could everyone please post theirs or comment on mine please
cheers

DMG 1972

I agree with you on the Aus and Irish matches but even though the All blacks are way ahead of everyone else 20 points is a big handicap to give away against a confident Welsh team playing at home, I think a safer bet would be total match points or total NZ points.

You can nearly double your money by doing a treble on NZ, Aus and France all to win on the outright which I think is a good bet, Leave out NZ and odds are 1.8. Argentina are playing well but France have to win this at home. I think Aus are a very good price at -7 or 1.41 on the outright, a lot of pressure on them to win after a poor tour.

What do you think of Italy -22 against Canada - Italy seem to have a very strong team out and Canada look to have lost a couple of players from last week. Italy don't usually get to hammer anyone so they might jump at the chance, I didn't see the Wales Canada match but it looked like a Welsh b team and they beat them by 35.

My money is on Aus -7, SA+4 and a double with France and Aus.
Might also do an acca with the above without SA and including Italy -22

Chucky the tree

According to ruggie or DaveIRL on the rugby forum France havent beaten the argies in four attempts. Something to take note of.

S.M.B.

I'll be doing the same but with Agrentina +9 @ 24-1.

Might throw down a second bet with OZ, SA, Ireland and change the other 2 games to NZ and France handicap wins!

Pighead

I see Eddie has drafted in a few kids tomorrow. No O Gara either. Does this not people off Ireland(-19)? Genuine question by the way, just wondering how good O Garas replacement is or how experienced the kids are. Any info mucho appreciated.(Before the match if possible!)

zAbbo

He's got Paddy Wallace at 10, Ulster lad. A bit hot and cold, but this game should suit him with Stringer feeding him clean ball.

PI have been woeful in the first half of the last two games, dropping something like 25 points in each one, but clawing themselves back to even footing in second halfs.

Their star winger CauCau (the Anelka of Rugby) has buggered off back to France, they do have Fa'atau though (explosive winger, top try scorer in Super14)

Not sure how much ball they'll get.

Ireland have young star Luke Fitz playing, expect scores from him, very very quick.

I'd expect at least a 15point win, more of the wind/rain stays off.

Regarding the other kids, Ferris and Heaslip are trying to make a shout for future squads, and will be up for the game, especially Ferris, who has an appetite for hurting people.

Pighead

Cheers zabbo, you're doing a very good job of convincing Pighead to take Ireland on the handicap!

zAbbo

If you're interested, take Australia today against Scotland. Although Scotland haven't lost at home this year, they are without some key players (Jason White, Ally Hogg and Chris Cusiter)

Last minute change to Scotlands lineup, loosing lock Hines due to a citing.

Australia will be looking to end this tour on a high note after poor games to Italy and Ireland.

Weather looks good today, and from 9-15 Australia are still among the best in the world. Tuqiri moves back to the wing, and Staniforth comes in to partner Mortlock in the centre. Satniforth is coming off a brilliant season for Western Force in the S14's and is staking a claim for the starting XV.

If the Aussie's can win ball, which I think they will with Scotland missing White and Hogg, and retain ball (George Smith is one of the best groundhogs in rugby) and get quick clean ball to the world class backline, they will win, and easily...if they don't..I think they'll still win.

I've got Aus on the handicap -8.5 @ 1.85

Pighead

Your powers of persuasion are remarkable zabbo. Have stuck the Aussies into my main weekend bet. Cracking write up buddy. Cheers.

Glenbhoy

Australia -7.5pts 2.08 €36.66
€39.59
Ref: Bet matched: 02:55 25-Nov-06
Australia -7.5pts 2.08 €37.37
€40.36
Ref: Bet matched: 07:29 25-Nov-06


Zabbo - where did you get that price, I matched Aus -7.5 at 2.08 during the night, I also fancy laying NZ at 1.1, to trade - and I don't think Ireland are the shoe in everbody else seems to -21, for me that could be a few points too many for a largely 2nd string side - but it's not a game I'd be going too mad on.

zAbbo

Gamebookers, crappy odds, but i had some credit sitting there.

I'd not be pushed on the Ireland game either.

Don't think I'll bother with Wales / NZ

Chucky the tree

austrailia and SA easily beat the spread. Hoping for 2 welsh tries. It was 1.8 on betfair.

Glenbhoy

Hmmm, maybe that trade of NZ at 1.1 wasn't such a good idea!! I'd say 1.01 wouldn't be a great idea either, but i've gotta try something - lower the average price etc..... Might be a long evening.

Chucky the tree

Wales +33.5 @ 1.43 isnt too bad.



Just gone to 1.52 after NZ got that penalty. Out to evens now even though wales are on the half way line, lovely.

zAbbo

Wales are getting blown off the pitch

Chucky the tree

I thought they would of employed a ref who knew the rules, uh-oh.

zAbbo

Any taking Ireland today ?

I'm debating it myself, Ireland -18.5 v PI looks interesting

zAbbo

Well there we go, My main bets of Scotland -8.5 and Ireland -18.5 coming home with plenty of room.

Hope you got on with those two, Pighead

eirebhoy

What's Ireland's chances of winning the WC? I wouldn't know too much about rugby but are NZ just unstoppable? They must have really improved since the last WC as Wales gave them a run for their money then. I don't understand why Australia are ahead of Ireland in the betting after last week's match.

Chucky the tree

Thats wasnt rally Aussies first team i dont think, there front row was quite experimental so i wouldnt look too much into that match. Ireland have the toughest group with France and Argentina. It will be a really struggle to get out of it. I wouldnt be suprised if we beat agrie, france beat us and Argintine beat france.

Glenbhoy

The problem is, if we don't beat both Arg and Fra we play NZ in the quarters - judging by yesterday's game, it looks unfair that anyone should have to play them - the polynesians are perfect physically for rugby, but their whities have now got polynesian like physiques too. Carter may just be heading towards being the best player ever, they're awesome (mental note, never try trading them again).
But all that said, they have lost to SA this year, and Ireland did pretty well against them in both tests this in June this year, oh, and they've been favourites for every world cup and have only prevailed once????

Chucky the tree

Another problem is the QF will be in cardiff. We will get the better crowd support by far, but an outdoor match with a bit of wind and rain would of suited us better i think.

Pighead

zabbo wrote:

Well there we go, My main bets of Scotland -8.5 and Ireland -18.5 coming home with plenty of room.

Hope you got on with those two, Pighead

Took Ireland on the handicap which I wasn't gonna do until I seen your convincing write up. Cheers buddy! Pigheads hoping you're a Heineken League expert too so he can pick your brains throughout the season.

zAbbo

I'll have to have a good look through the HC fixtures.

The nice bit of information I got at the weekend was that Hines got cited and missed the Australia game.

I don't think I've ever seen such a poor throwing display by a hooker than the Aussie no.2, he was woeful, but performed better in the loose.

I've withdrew my winnings, just in case I done something silly, like bet it on soccer