2 EPM Bubble hands...

Ste05

OK, it's down to the bubble of last nights EPM satellite. Top 7 get $3,200 tickets into the main event, 8th gets €700, in a deal we struck at the final table.

There are some other interesting hands (including calling for huge %'s of my stack with 92 and 102 and folding QQ and AK Pre-Flop) but I know those were correct plays so I won't go into them) but I'm interested to hear what other people think of 2 hands in particular, I'm fairly happy with how I played them but interested none the less.

Hand 1:

It's been the bubble for about an hour and it's amazingly tight and crapshooty by now. The blinds are 6,000/12,000 Ante 1,000 (so the pot is 28,000 before cards are dealt and the average stack is about 75,000. There's one pretty monster stack of over 200,000 the rest of us have between 30k and 70k and two stacks of less than 1 BB.

OK, so I'm in the BB with about another 25k behind, the SB completes (about 40k behind), this is basically the standard at this stage waiting for one of the shorties to be forced all-in, and he usually just checks it down, the last time this happened on my blind I pushed for my remaining 25k, he thought about it saying do I want to race, and folded. He really didn't like me very much as I had been bullying him a bit on an earlier table and robbing his blinds and limps a bit.

So anyway, this time I decide I'll hopefully just check it down with him because the next hand the BB will be All-In and the hand after that the next guy will be All-In in his BB.

OK, so I have J9, the flop is a horrible KJ9r, he thinks about it and pushes. So if I call and win I'm basically guaranteed a ticket, if I fold the next 2 hands there'll be a shorty All-In and hopefully I'll get a ticket, if I call and lose I'm the bubble boy.

What do you do? Just to let you know, there's no way he has air here.

Hand 2:

OK, So I folded that hand, he showed, so if people want some results orientated thinking they can feel free to discuss it.

Obviously the other 2 shorties survived against 4 callers each... :rolleyes: :rolleyes: and it's quickly around to my turn to run the gauntlet.

I'm UTG with K9, I'm all-in next hand, no-one is going to get knocked out this hand if I fold. I'm guaranteed at least to have to beat 4 hands if I go now, and probably the same next hand, but possibly one less due to 1 less guaranteed blind caller. So do you fold hoping to go up against 3 random hands with whatever I'm given in the BB, or do you go with the K9 against 4 random hands??

5pin5

u should have called me the next time you moved i had pocket tens and hit the straight .

DeadParrot

Hand 1:
folding is I suppose the right way to go about it reckoning that at least one shortie is going out next 2 hands. I'd find it hard to put down.

Hand 2
Not a lot more you can do here, ask yourself what are the odds of getting better next hand. Id be pushing.

phantom_lord

First hand is a fold,i think, no point in getting involved without the nuts with shorties left, who should(!), be knocked out.


I'd push the k9.

Ste05

Ahhh, so you were 5pin5, I thought the other guy that already had his ticket was 5pin5. Ever since I raised and you had to fold your QQ I thought you were fairly pissed off with me. (Is that what you really had there?)

Great playing with you and best of luck in the Main Event, we should have bloody well bought your woman's ticket off her... :mad:

5pin5

you flop 2pair and put it down i was allways going to push anybody who plays with me will tell you i allways call

BigCityBanker

im a pretty tight player on a final table - you flopped 2 pair - get those chips across the line.. I could never bring myself to fold this. (what did he show?)

Goodluck2me

very hard to fold the first one. maybe in the long run its the right play but its hard to know. if your read is good then let it go and cross the fingers. second one i wait.

Ste05

5pin5, will you check your Private Messages. Cheers.

ianmc38

I think first one is a definite call, though I made a similar laydown to Solsjkaer in the recent SE deepstack game. I was overjoyed when he told me later he had 66 on a KJ84 board, though there was an unnatural smell of bullsh*t in the air when he said it (i had J8) :rolleyes:

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Ste05

ianmc38 wrote:

I think first one is a definite call, though I made a similar laydown to Solsjkaer in the recent SE deepstack game. I was overjoyed when he told me later he had 66 on a KJ84 board, though there was an unnatural smell of bullsh*t in the air when he said it (i had J8) :rolleyes:

Well one thing is certain, it isn't a definite call. This isn't a usual MTT, the strategy for late play in a satellite is completely different than in a standard payout MTT, if this had of been a regular tournament I'd have beaten him into the pot with my chips, but having said that, this situation would never arise for me to even have to think about it.

sikes

first one is a fold imo

second one i push

Ste05

LuckyLloyd wrote:

It is extremely unlucky for you not to get a ticket from that spot.

Especially considering there had already been 3 or 4 short stack survivals before this including one guy who was down to 3 antes at one stage :eek: :eek: !!!

ianmc38

Sory Ste didnt notice there were 2 shortstacks. Definitely the correct fold.

Goodluck2me

if someone is down to 3 antes surely everyone should just call to knock them out?

Ste05

Well, other shortstacks can't call him, only big stacks can call, but he did get about 3 callers, and of course survived (as bloody usual) and won about 1 BB.

cooker3

I think the first one is a definate fold considering the situation of the short stacks at the table.

I also push for the 2nd hand, it's not too bad a hand and chances are your hand on bb will be worse so ship it!

aceofspades.ie

Ste05 wrote:

Ahhh, so you were 5pin5, I thought the other guy that already had his ticket was 5pin5. Ever since I raised and you had to fold your QQ I thought you were fairly pissed off with me. (Is that what you really had there?)

Great playing with you and best of luck in the Main Event, we should have bloody well bought your woman's ticket off her... :mad:

Hard luck...Like you said it was a crapshoot!! and I really thought at the time you should have called with the two pair no disrespect!! by the way will you get on contct with me... I have a few quid for you might ease the pain a little
Myles (the other guy)

Ste05

aceofspades.ie wrote:

Hard luck...Like you said it was a crapshoot!! and I really thought at the time you should have called with the two pair no disrespect!! by the way will you get on contct with me... I have a few quid for you might ease the pain a little
Myles (the other guy)

Jaysus, is everyone a boardster, :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Nice playing with you Myles, great game, I'd say you were praying for me to call there all right. :rolleyes: Best of luck tomorrow.

I'll send you a PM now in a few minutes, cheers Myles.

And just to put this thread to bed and for anyone who likes to hear results, I'll explain what happened in the J9 hand. The reason I passed is because I knew Eamonn wasn't betting there with nothing, which meant he either had trips, a straight, a better 2 pair, a K with a straight draw, QQ or at best a naked K.

If, (as it turned out) he only had a naked K, (he had K4) I would still lose my seat about 20-25% of the time, the rest of the times I'd be drawing very thin if not dead. So TBH, when I got home and thought about it some more and posted here, I'm happy that it was the correct fold and would make it again everytime.

In the K9 exit hand, I was up against 4, maybe 5 players, the board ended up KQJ9x, I had 2 pair, but 5pin5 had 1010 to put us all out of our misery.

aceofspades.ie

I never prey at the poker table... It's to risky... I'm not one to preech, the way I play!!! Anyway really enjoyed the game thanks....

Ste05

aceofspades.ie wrote:

I never prey at the poker table... It's to risky... I'm not one to preech, the way I play!!! Anyway really enjoyed the game thanks....

LOL, yeah I know. I'm really going to have to cut back on my strategy posts, especially if I decide to start playing Live more, and so will be playing against more people who know me instead of just some random internet donk.

But it certainly was an enjoyable game, although I'd say tomorrows will be even more fun. Good Luck to you all and I hope that someone here has a big result.

RoundTower

Ste05 wrote:

OK, it's down to the bubble of last nights EPM satellite. Top 7 get $3,200 tickets into the main event, 8th gets €700

Which bubble are you on? you are down to 9 now? or 8? With 8 left I think you have a clear fold, not sure about it if you have 9 left.

I think I push the K9. Based on the way you put it though - that you will get exactly 4 blind callers if you push now, and 3 if you push next hand, and no one will do anything stupid this hand if you fold - you have a push only if suited.
K9s against 4 blind hands
K9o against 4 blind hands

Ste05

RoundTower wrote:

Which bubble are you on? you are down to 9 now? or 8? With 8 left I think you have a clear fold, not sure about it if you have 9 left.

Ye, down to 8 by now.

RoundTower wrote:

I think I push the K9. Based on the way you put it though - that you will get exactly 4 blind callers if you push now, and 3 if you push next hand, and no one will do anything stupid this hand if you fold - you have a push only if suited.

Well there is absolutely 0 chance anyone will do anything stupid if I fold, we'd been down to 8 for nearly an hour at this stage, it was nearly half 6 and the SE was basically closed.

I'm not certain about the numbers, but I was fairly sure that I'd have at least 4 players here, and the next hand I was guaranteed 3 callers maybe 4. (technically speaking I should have had 5 both hands because 2 of the bigger stacks were folding when they should have been calling with any 2, it was rather annoying when others were all-in)

And it was K9o

Jaden

This thread kept me up all night last night. I torn between thinking this was a good, disciplined fold, or that the OP is a complete ****ing donkey.....

Looking at it, what can the BB have? Surely he would shove pre-flop with any pair, AK-T, or any two suited broadway cards. His checking range is anything else. Based on this premise the SB can only be worried about 2 holdings - KJ and K9 - with two pair, he crushes every other holding. With J9 and that flop, I'd have given myself felt-burns getting my chips in. I'd rather the certainty of *knowing* I'm ahead here, than the *possibility* someone else will be knocked out in a few hands. Checking on the flop gives the green light to the BB to take this pot if he has any of it.

Folding this was a mistake. The justification for doing so looks good, but the more I think about it, the more certain I am that it's the wrong move.

ollyk1

Jaden wrote:

This thread kept me up all night last night. I torn between thinking this was a good, disciplined fold, or that the OP is a complete ****ing donkey.....

Looking at it, what can the BB have? Surely he would shove pre-flop with any pair, AK-T, or any two suited broadway cards. His checking range is anything else. Based on this premise the SB can only be worried about 2 holdings - KJ and K9 - with two pair, he crushes every other holding. With J9 and that flop, I'd have given myself felt-burns getting my chips in. I'd rather the certainty of *knowing* I'm ahead here, than the *possibility* someone else will be knocked out in a few hands. Checking on the flop gives the green light to the BB to take this pot if he has any of it.

Folding this was a mistake. The justification for doing so looks good, but the more I think about it, the more certain I am that it's the wrong move.

What distubs me is that the BB was Eamon and he could have absolutely anything!!! That would really have confused me.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Ste05

LuckyLloyd wrote:

A) There is no chance in hell that Ste is a Donkey. "Complete and ****ing other" or no.

Well you never know... :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Just one thing Jaden I was the BB in the hand. Eamon was in the SB, so PF he completed, I checked my option and then he open pushed the flop.

And basically no matter what he had he wasn't pushing PF except possibly AA, but he might have even limped with that too. So you can rule nothing out by his limp really. There is no chance he'd have pushed with A10, broadway cards, etc., he had already seen me make big calls all-in with 92o once and with 102o for a large % of my stack when the pot odds dictated I had to call, and he (correctly) was not willing to race for his ticket, (I would have folded nearly everything here to a push, but at the time I think he thought I was a bit of a maniac and might have called) if he lost this race he'd have less than a BB left and would be All-In next if the other 2 shorties survived.

I won't say anything more about the fold, incase others want to discuss it.

5starpool

Ste05 wrote:

Well you never know... :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Just one thing Jaden I was the BB in the hand. Eamon was in the SB, so PF he completed, I checked my option and then he open pushed the flop.

And basically no matter what he had he wasn't pushing PF except possibly AA, but he might have even limped with that too. So you can rule nothing out by his limp really. There is no chance he'd have pushed with A10, broadway cards, etc., he had already seen me make big calls all-in with 92o once and with 102o for a large % of my stack when the pot odds dictated I had to call, and he (correctly) was not willing to race for his ticket, (I would have folded nearly everything here to a push, but at the time I think he thought I was a bit of a maniac and might have called) if he lost this race he'd have less than a BB left and would be All-In next if the other 2 shorties survived.

I won't say anything more about the fold, incase others want to discuss it.

Eamonn told me today what he had in that hand. PM me Ste if you want to know

Ste05

Thanks Dom, he showed, so I know... how did you get on today, I'm sure you've probably posted it somewhere so I'll go and have a look...

I'd still fold because I'd still lose my seat 25% of the time.

Goodluck2me

sorry just seen post now...