Euro Millions

marius

Might be of interest to Poker players....stats-wise

The euro-millions is 150 million today, there are (i think) 69 million different combinations of numbers and a single line costs 2 yoyo's.

Given that the lottery is in general a tax on people who don't understand statistics......do I have the correct odds to play this time?

Sangre

Eh, no. It wouldn't be a very good lottery system if you could get 'odds' to play. (Also you're assuming there will be a single winner)

I always enjoy telling lottery heads that they're much more likely to be murdered than win the Euromillions.

sikes

1 in 76,275,360 to hit the jackot. You would be rolled for life.

Bandana boy

Yes lotterys are bad but the change in lifestyle when they hit these heights is defo worth a gamble at bad odds

Goodluck2me

your not taking into account thought the fact that if you did every combination you would def win as youd get paid for all the 5 number lines 4,3,2 etc...its a CERT!

phantom_lord

2 yoyos? Sure you'd pay that limp fold with a bag of ****e.

Duff Man Jr.

I dont think i've ever even hit a one outer, never mind a 76million to 1 shot.

phantom_lord

All the same tho, I would never play the lotto, scratch cards, or roulette.

RoundTower

yes I think it is borderline profitable

marius

Sangre wrote:

Eh, no. It wouldn't be a very good lottery system if you could get 'odds' to play.

Thats my point - it looks to me that reward (75mill * initial stake) is about the same as the risk (75 million to 1)

Sangre wrote:

(Also you're assuming there will be a single winner)

granted - if there are two winners and you are one on them your initial reason for playing it debunked - but you would have 75 million to consloe you.

Sangre wrote:

I always enjoy telling lottery heads that they're much more likely to be murdered than win the Euromillions.

That is true - but its not the point, im simply asking whether in this situation it is correct to buy a lotto ticket?

marius

RoundTower wrote:

yes I think it is borderline profitable

are you gonna buy a ticket?;)

califano

I believe your getting the odds to play . Its better than one in 76,275,360 because i heard that if its not won tonite it gets split between the next closest tickets.

sikes

if you can figure out how many people play and the likely hood of a split then youd be in a better position to figure it out.

If i was in charge of a €150mil, id be all over the lotto tonight!!

JackieChan

Are profits from the Euromillions used to fund good causes(as is the Irish one).
If you don't win you could take some consolation from that

Ste05

I think when it gets up to 150m+ it becomes slightly +EV, if you think about it in the long term, if we keep making this same play and paying €2 on a 76m:1 shot, when we stand to win over €152m (assuming it's not a split pot), then we'll show a profit overall... :rolleyes:

EDIT: I always buy lotto tickets when I'm getting odds to play, i.e. very seldomly

phantom_lord

Anyone have a loan of 70m?



Actually, i think it'd be better just to stake the chief for a ticket.

Ste05

phantom_lord wrote:

Anyone have a loan of 70m?

that'd only make it a 50:50 shot for you... you'd need a loan of €152m to guarantee the jackpot...

sikes

phantom_lord wrote:

Anyone have a loan of 70m?

why 70m? we want 150m!

Some hedge fund should does this for ****s and giggles.

Samba

phantom_lord wrote:

All the same tho, I would never play the lotto, scratch cards, or roulette.

amateur.....

Only two weeks ago i dug out an old scratch card that had a winning free ticket....so off to the shops i went with full intent to take down my very own little freeroll.

Line one revealed two free tickets, oh no i thought, not a ticket into another freeroll!

But alas line two revealed a 250 and 50 euro ticket, i paused i thought carefully about what my next move would be, would i go all in or just check....

To heck with it, i scratched myself all in and low and behold I was the winner of 250 Eur.

With my new found riches i banked 245 Eur profit and decided to invest 5 Eur as a bankroll.

More victories came in the form of 4 Euro's and a free ticket.. but my run of luck was not to be, down to a free ticket I pushed all in and with so many outs two 50's and two 5000's revealed, I failed to hit.

I've since retired from the pro scratch card circuit, maybe one day i'll return, at least I can say I made a healthy profit.

RoundTower

I suppose I am now, though I'm not bankrolled for the swings.

Rb

sikes wrote:

why 70m? we want 150m!

Some hedge fund should does this for ****s and giggles.

Ah but if someone had the same numbers and split the jackpot, thats a ~€70 million loss right there.
I certainly wouldn't be laughing after that!

phantom_lord

Ste05 wrote:

that'd only make it a 50:50 shot for you... you'd need a loan of €152m to guarantee the jackpot...

Oh yeah, 2 yoyos a line. Whoops. forget I said anything....

peeko

LOL @ Samba!

Washout

sambas post gets my vote for post of the year

Bandana boy

sikes wrote:

why 70m? we want 150m!

Some hedge fund should does this for ****s and giggles.

The thing is if you put 150million in to win this the prize fund would go up although not by the full 150m of course but i think 50% goes to the jackpot and assorted other prizes
So your return assuming there is not another winner should be
circa 130%

marius

phantom_lord wrote:

Anyone have a loan of 70m?

Euro or Sterling?

5starpool

It is a testament to my sadness when I have tried to explain this very phenomenon to non poker players in terms of pot odds. I almost started talking about the lesser (but still big) prizes as side pots that can be won even if you don't have the nuts, but I decided to hold my tongue as I had said enough anyways.

Ste05

I thought it was a 150m jackpot and then more money for the other prizes??

EDIT: I've done the very same thing 5Star... :rolleyes:

Goodluck2me

Washout wrote:

sambas post gets my vote for post of the year

.

sikes

Bandana boy wrote:

The thing is if you put 150million in to win this the prize fund would go up although not by the full 150m of course but i think 50% goes to the jackpot and assorted other prizes
So your return assuming there is not another winner should be
circa 130%

exactly, now what are the odds that it will be spilt. I would assume a 25-30% chance of a spilt considering its been rolling over for the 11th time or something.

so clearly anyone with 150million burning a hole should be lumping on.

5starpool

If someone lumps on 150 million then all the prizes will be substantially swollen and there will be more than that to return.

Imposter

Buying every combination was tried on the irish lotto before. I think they split it and they still made a 20% or so profit. They had a few problems though. Buying up all the tickets in 3 days was a serious problem for them. People in shops began to get suspicious toward them. Marking all the sheets and finally finding the winning tickets among so many ain't easy

They only got about 90% of the tickets bought too iirc.

marius

O.K. I was less talking about whether it is a good idea to put my spare 150 million into lotto tickets and more talking about whether it is a good idea to put my spare 2 euro into a lotto ticket.

Basically, as a poker player, is it a good idea to trot down to the Spar down the road and buy a lotto ticket?

This is obviously not something that it will ever be possibly for me to do 75 million times - so do pot odds just go out the window or is it still a good idea to do it once?

phantom_lord

Imposter wrote:

Buying every combination was tried on the irish lotto before. I think they split it and they still made a 20% or so profit. They had a few problems though. Buying up all the tickets in 3 days was a serious problem for them. People in shops began to get suspicious toward them. Marking all the sheets and finally finding the winning tickets among so many ain't easy

They only got about 90% of the tickets bought too iirc.

my maths teacher told us that story years ago, i think the lotto added extra numbers or something afterwards.

so do pot odds just go out the window or is it still a good idea to do it once?

Does the evs+ of buying a ticket not go out the window since this is such a small sample size and only slightly good odds. Sure in the long run it's good....but the long run is 75m draws...

sikes

phantom_lord wrote:

my maths teacher told us that story years ago, i think the lotto added extra numbers or something afterwards.




Does the evs+ of buying a ticket not go out the window since this is such a small sample size and only slightly good odds. Sure in the long run it's good....but the long run is 75m draws...

as RT said you aint rolled to deal with the swings.

As for the long run in this case, 75m, is way short, thats like saying 2 coinflips is the long run for coin flipping

Solksjaer

Samba wrote:

amateur.....

Only two weeks ago i dug out an old scratch card that had a winning free ticket....so off to the shops i went with full intent to take down my very own little freeroll.

Line one revealed two free tickets, oh no i thought, not a ticket into another freeroll!

But alas line two revealed a 250 and 50 euro ticket, i paused i thought carefully about what my next move would be, would i go all in or just check....

To heck with it, i scratched myself all in and low and behold I was the winner of 250 Eur.

With my new found riches i banked 245 Eur profit and decided to invest 5 Eur as a bankroll.

More victories came in the form of 4 Euro's and a free ticket.. but my run of luck was not to be, down to a free ticket I pushed all in and with so many outs two 50's and two 5000's revealed, I failed to hit.

I've since retired from the pro scratch card circuit, maybe one day i'll return, at least I can say I made a healthy profit.

That post was just the ticket for a Friday afternoon....LMAO nice one.

30something

With the way first prize the World Series of poker has been increasing year by year, I suspect by 2025 1st prize will make winning Euro-millions akin to the buy-in for the WSOP.

[Figure that out!]

Scotty #

RE: The lotto syndicate from a few years ago.....A guy I know recently won an apartment on one of a radio competitions recently. I think you had to have €15,000 worth of Irish Independent Newspaper headings or something like that. Anyway... he borrowed the money from the bank and bought the papers only to find out someone else had done the same. These other people got in touch with him and they decided to split the prize. He later found out these other people were the same people involved in that lotto syndicate and entering competitions is what they do for a living now.

califano

Scotty # wrote:

RE: The lotto syndicate from a few years ago.....A guy I know recently won an apartment on one of a radio competitions recently. I think you had to have €15,000 worth of Irish Independent Newspaper headings or something like that. Anyway... he borrowed the money from the bank and bought the papers only to find out someone else had done the same. These other people got in touch with him and they decided to split the prize. He later found out these other people were the same people involved in that lotto syndicate and entering competitions is what they do for a living now.

Lucky fella. I remember listening on radio1 to this guys story about a couple of years ago shaking my head. He seriously thought he was the only one with this fiendish plan but i believe he was out chipped on newspaper clippings 33:1 or something ridiculous by the syndicate and he was even behind other randomers with the same idea.
Radio listeners tried to shame the syndicate into doing him a deal and I can only think they did as a concilliatory gesture so as they can use this kindness as their morality card the next time their up for pulling a stroke. Not that this was a stroke, they acted within the rules.

rag2gar

Sangre wrote:

Eh, no. It wouldn't be a very good lottery system if you could get 'odds' to play. (Also you're assuming there will be a single winner)

I always enjoy telling lottery heads that they're much more likely to be murdered than win the Euromillions.

Your also more likey to become a saint then win the euromillions

cooker3

Scotty # wrote:

RE: The lotto syndicate from a few years ago.....A guy I know recently won an apartment on one of a radio competitions recently. I think you had to have €15,000 worth of Irish Independent Newspaper headings or something like that. Anyway... he borrowed the money from the bank and bought the papers only to find out someone else had done the same. These other people got in touch with him and they decided to split the prize. He later found out these other people were the same people involved in that lotto syndicate and entering competitions is what they do for a living now.

I have often comtemplated dedicating a few months of my life to entering every single competition you come accross, pull out in papers, magazines, phone in competitions on tv and the radio, etc. I always thought it would be a profitable venture. Does anyone else think it would?
I also graduate in June, so hey those free few months may be here sooner rather then later!

sendic

Imposter wrote:

Buying every combination was tried on the irish lotto before. I think they split it and they still made a 20% or so profit. They had a few problems though. Buying up all the tickets in 3 days was a serious problem for them. People in shops began to get suspicious toward them. Marking all the sheets and finally finding the winning tickets among so many ain't easy

They only got about 90% of the tickets bought too iirc.

iirc, the lotto guaranteed min payouts for 4 numbers and 5 numbers for one particular weekend, making it easier for the syndicate youre talking about (i dont remember the details but they only needed a certain % of the tickets to break even)

I remember it was on the tv at the time and certain places were refusing to sell these guys tickets as they saw it as bad sportsmanship :eek:

sendic

btw, I'm in for 4 euro tonight, all you 2 euro suckers dont stand a chance!

Goodluck2me

sendic wrote:

btw, I'm in for 4 euro tonight, all you 2 euro suckers dont stand a chance!

dammit!

58o

180 million next friday, definetly getting odds now.