Hand from MTT Final Table

lazlo

How should I proceed on this flop. Not a lot is known of the villain. About 4 hands before he moved over a simlar raise of mine for all his chips(95K at time) with AKo which I swiftly called with QQ(200K deep at time) he obviously caught and is causing further problems for me here....

Holdem No Limit - $10000 BB

UTG+1 ($159,630) [Hero]
UTG+2 ($175,620)
MP+1 ($105,050)
MP+2 ($165,830)
CO ($159,630)
Button ($175,620)
SB ($105,050)
BB ($165,830)
UTG ($23,870)

Hero is UTG+1 with Jc, Kc
Preflop: (5 players, $15000)
UTG folds, HERO calls 10,000 and raises 20,000, Button calls 30,000, 2 folds

Flop: 2c, Qh, Qc (2 players, $75000)
HERO ?

Ollieboy

With 75k in the middle and you have only 120k behind you and the blinds been so big, I would push and hope he doesn't have the Q, if he does than you still have outs.

Also, I would throw this hand away in that position with blinds so big.

It would also be more helpiful if you gave us the details of the table and tourney, like prize structure etc

lazlo

It was a $20 rebuy tourney yesterday afternoon. Top prize 2k, 2nd 980$ etc etc. -- I was the biggest stack at the final table and had been very aggreessive had I won the Q hand against this villain about 15 mins previous I would have had a commanding chip lead (300k). The guy in MP+2 was the only other player at the table who seemed to pose a considerable threat to me.

After losing the QQ hand I stole a further 2 pots to bring my stack back to the level it was at in this hand.

NickyOD

Preflop its very close whether or not you should play this hand depending on how the table is playing. Postflop is tricky. I think I might try to CRAI.

FoxRiver8

I dont agree with either response so far :eek: preflop isnt the issue here either, you're looking for flop advice so gotta assume ur happy with the move pre.....

on the flop with 129k behind and a similar stack for your opponent, i cant agree with pushing or CRAI - generally any push on that flop is not representing strength, he clearly wont put you on a set, flush draw possibly but more than likely he'll put u on a missed AK or a mid pair. with 75k in the pot, i dont like CRAI at all, our objective is to take down this pot on the flop and failing that we need to give our opponent the chance to fold a marginal hand; CRAI defeats both of these purposes because if he leads with a pot sized bet, it will be very difficult for him to fold any hand to a reraise and we still only have K high flush draw, and if he pushes then it puts the decision on you, conceivably you could fold. Both moves are losing the initiative in this hand.

As played, and assuming you want this pot, lead for 65k. It appears stronger than a push, you give him the opportunity to pass and you can still call any all in (and again conceivably fold with 80k left at 5/10k). Let's face it, if he has the Q and a set, then neither CRAI or open push will affect the outcome, the money will be going in from both sides. Assuming no set, a strong lead has a much wider scope to take this pot - the last thing i would want to do is CRAI and have given my opponent the chance to get it in with AK/AJ or a mid pair and to miss my draw, because i'd know i made it easy for him.

NickyOD

FoxRiver8 wrote:

I dont agree with either response so far :eek: preflop isnt the issue here either, you're looking for flop advice so gotta assume ur happy with the move pre.....

on the flop with 129k behind and a similar stack for your opponent, i cant agree with pushing or CRAI - generally any push on that flop is not representing strength, he clearly wont put you on a set, flush draw possibly but more than likely he'll put u on a missed AK or a mid pair. with 75k in the pot, i dont like CRAI at all, our objective is to take down this pot on the flop and failing that we need to give our opponent the chance to fold a marginal hand; CRAI defeats both of these purposes because if he leads with a pot sized bet, it will be very difficult for him to fold any hand to a reraise and we still only have K high flush draw, and if he pushes then it puts the decision on you, conceivably you could fold. Both moves are losing the initiative in this hand.

As played, and assuming you want this pot, lead for 65k. It appears stronger than a push, you give him the opportunity to pass and you can still call any all in (and again conceivably fold with 80k left at 5/10k). Let's face it, if he has the Q and a set, then neither CRAI or open push will affect the outcome, the money will be going in from both sides. Assuming no set, a strong lead has a much wider scope to take this pot - the last thing i would want to do is CRAI and have given my opponent the chance to get it in with AK/AJ or a mid pair and to miss my draw, because i'd know i made it easy for him.

The more I think about this hand the more I like open pushing.

I think you're being a little tunnel-visioned here. Leading out is not as superior a play as you make it out to be.

Leading the flop is fine but not for 65K. You said if you make this bet its concievable to fold to an all in but no way can you fold having put 95K in the middle with 64K (not 80K) left. If I lead the flop here I lead for 40 and at least leave room for a fold if our worst nightmare happens and he smooth calls the flop bet.

Also CRAI DOES give our oponent the chance to fold a marginal hand. How can he call a CRAI with AJ? AK is not in his range here and we're actually favourite over a middle pair, even one with a club in it so why would we want him to fold it, but if we did I don't see how leading out will get middle pairs to fold more often than check raising. Most players don't realise when they are pot committed will fold toa CR assuming you have a Q or an overpair. They're less likely to believe that if you continuation bet.

A better question is whether or not we actually want him to call since the only conceivable hand he can have that has us in bad shape is KQ. I think he's pushing with AQ preflop. We're a favourite over middle pairs, and even bigger favourite over AT. We're racing against AJ but he's unlikely to commit any chips to the pot with that hand unless he hits 1 of 5 cards on the turn.

fuzzbox

NickyOD wrote:

I think you're being a little tunnel-visioned here. Leading out is not as superior a play as you make it out to be.

Leading the flop is fine but not for 65K. You said if you make this bet its concievable to fold to an all in but no way can you fold having put 95K in the middle with 64K (not 80K) left. If I lead the flop here I lead for 40 and at least leave room for a fold if our worst nightmare happens and he smooth calls the flop bet.

Also CRAI DOES give our oponent the chance to fold a marginal hand. How can he call a CRAI with AJ? AK is not in his range here and we're actually favourite over a middle pair, even one with a club in it so why would we want him to fold it, but if we did I don't see how leading out will get middle pairs to fold more often than check raising. Most players don't realise when they are pot committed will fold toa CR assuming you have a Q or an overpair. They're less likely to believe that if you continuation bet.

A better question is whether or not we actually want him to call since the only conceivable hand he can have that has us in bad shape is KQ. I think he's pushing with AQ preflop. We're a favourite over middle pairs, and even bigger favourite over AT. We're racing against AJ but he's unlikely to commit any chips to the pot with that hand unless he hits 1 of 5 cards on the turn.

Of course we want him to fold. We are almost never a big big favourite, and even if he has 77, we are a very small favourite. The pot has 75k in it, so its a major coup if we can get him to lay down such a hand.
Similar for AK and AJ and so on.

NickyOD

fuzzbox wrote:

Of course we want him to fold. We are almost never a big big favourite, and even if he has 77, we are a very small favourite. The pot has 75k in it, so its a major coup if we can get him to lay down such a hand.
Similar for AK and AJ and so on.

I don't see how leading out is going to get him to fold those hands more often than a CRAI. Might as well just shove.

fuzzbox

NickyOD wrote:

I don't see how leading out is going to get him to fold those hands more often than a CRAI. Might as well just shove.

I dont have a problem with open shove.

lazlo

Result: I open-pushed as soon as the flop hit and he calls with 9,9

Turn and river both bring blanks to send me on my merry way. Was very disappointed as I had the run of that final table but for those two hands against the villain

fuzzbox

Yah, I would call with 99 there also.

Sux, but you will get him to lay down *some* hands in that spot, and regardless, you are slightly better than 50/50 Vs pairs under J.

lazlo

Yeah I cant blame him for calling. I don't think he would have put me on something as weak as KJ considering the range of hands I had been turning over up to that point. However having said that I had changed gears considereably since having the Queens cracked in a bid to consoldiate my stack.