Fitz Scalps Hand - Help Plz

30something

90 Runners in this tonight. Down to the last 16. Pays 12. Table is tightening. I've 20k, blinds 1k/2k Avg stack 25k. Pick up AJo mp and open for 5k (The table was tightening!)

Villan (35k) in cut-off puts me AI. About 2 hours earlier he did the same to me and I folded. He is however solid enough. He had also re-raised AI PF with 88 about 1 hour ago. to a smaller stack.

I figure his range to be AA - 77, AK and MAYBE AQ. I also figure slight chance of a bluff (maybe 5%).

There's 13k in the middle, its my last 15k to call to win a total of 43k.

I chickened out

I didn't think hard enough about the odds before I folded. On my way home I tried to work it out.

(i)If he's AA-QQ I win 10% of the time (?). He has this hand 25% of the time
(ii)If he's 1010 - 77 I win (say) 50% of the time (?). He has this hand 50% of the time
(iii)If he's AK / AQ I win 20% of the time (?). He has this hand 15% of the time
(iv) If he's JJ I win 30% of the time (?). He has this hand 5% of the time
(v) If he bluffs I win 80% of the time (?). He has this hand 5% of the time

Thus
(i) (10% x 43k) x 25% = 1.1k
(ii) (50% x 43k) x 50% = 10.7k
(iii) (20% x 43k) x 15% = 1.3k
(iv) (30% x 43k) x 5% = .75k
(v) (80% x 43k) x 5% = 1.7k
Total return on 15k = 15.5k. Damn, shoulda called.

Good fold / Bad fold? Did I work it out right?

Goodluck2me

i dont call here. i much rather wait a hand or two then be the aggressor and push later. its much to easy to be behind here. your risking your tournament on a very marginal hand. if the table is tightening, and he is re-raising, alarm bell should ring somewhat. its not always a monster but unless hes showed otherwise give him credit for a hand

BigDragon

I can look at maths all night but for me...

On the bubble, MP with 10xBB = Open push.

cooker3

BigDragon wrote:

I can look at maths all night but for me...

On the bubble, MP with 10xBB = Open push.

agreed, I would push if I was play at all and if table was tightening then definately make move.
As played, hmmmn probably fold, with 15k, stil have some folding equity especially if average is 25k.

Daithio

When the structure is this tight you need to commit yourself to a hand or dump it. It's a pretty common mistake for good players off here to assume that the structure of say the scalps game in the Fitz allows for play, it doesn't. It doesn't matter a ****e what the average stack is, you should only be thinking of your stack in relation to the blinds.

This hand depends alot on what you are looking for. If you really want to/ need to cash, I think it's a fold. If you want to go on to win the tournament I think it's a push. Alot is dependant on the players that are left to act behind you though. The ONLY time I think that a standard raise as you made is OK, is when ALL the players to act behind you are absolute rocks that would fold to a standard raise as much as to a push. This is extremely rare if you're acting from mid position though, in fact it's pretty much unheard of, so I think it's a push or a fold. I push.

EDIT to say, as played I call.

brianmc

BigDragon wrote:

I can look at maths all night but for me...

On the bubble, MP with 10xBB = Open push.

.

30something

Villan showed 1010 which meant I was getting 2:1 on the call, should have called

Hitman Actual

Daithio wrote:

It doesn't matter a ****e what the average stack is, you should only be thinking of your stack in relation to the blinds.

QFT. Finally somebody said this; average stack rarely means a thing in the regular Dublin tourneys.

As said, push or fold preflop. Easy push for me.

As played: For the maths, I don't think you need to split up the % for each possible holding if you think 77+ to AK is equally likely i.e. they have the same weighting. Just stick the range into pokerstove: this give AJo as ~2/1 dog against opponents range. So getting ~3/1 on your money, it's a call if you stick to the whole maths thingy. Adding AQ to the range changes nothing, and a 5% bluff chance shouldn't be enough to tip the scales either.

Hitman Actual

30something wrote:

Villan showed 1010 which meant I was getting 2:1 on the call, should have called

Results-oriented thinking! Don't dare do that here.

30something

lenny_leonard wrote:

Results-oriented thinking! Don't dare do that here.

LOL, I actually meant to post his hand originally. As I folded I just wanted to know whether people thought my fold was "right or wrong".

I appreciate that avg stack doesnt really come into the equation here, I just wanted to give all the info.

As for limping into the money, that was not in the equation. My ethos in all tourneys is to get as far as possible. Cashing in the Fitz Scalps is only relevant top 3/4. Again, I said 16 left just for info purposes so the dynamics of the situation were clear.

I appreciate the feed-back. I think this type of call for your tourney life is as difficult as they come. The situation is that I was NEARLY pot-committed, with a NEARLY good enough hand, with NEARLY a good enough reward to justify a call.