FG/Labour slide continues.

mike65

Lastest polling in SBP puts FF/PDs on 42% I belive with Labour down 4 and FG down 2.

Given that the polling trend was firmly towards the 'alternative coalition' over the last year or so whats caused this sudden halt? Is it still the 'Poor Old Bertie' factor or do the public just reckon FG/Lab are all hot-air and no policies?

Mike.

They seem to lack ideas and a vision of the direction the country should be heading in. They appear too reactionary, criticising current government policy far more often than coming with their own. From my perspective what people want changed about modern Ireland is not how (in)efficiently it is being run, but the direction the country is heading in.

MontgomeryClift

It just matters who's being talked about. With the Bertie corruption thing it was Bertie who was being talked about, and even though it showed him to be a liar and a shyster, the focus was on him. That's all that matters.

It can't be policies, because 'ordinary people' don't know what a policy is, and FF/PDs don't have any and could not have any that they agree on, yet they're in government.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote:

They seem to lack ideas and a vision of the direction the country should be heading in. They appear too reactionary, criticising current government policy far more often than coming with their own. From my perspective what people want changed about modern Ireland is not how (in)efficiently it is being run, but the direction the country is heading in.

the opposition can't put forward any good ideas this far from an election because the incumbent government would just steal them

This is not to say that the opposition have any good ideas though.

As far as I can see, FF and FG are identical in their awfulness, and labour are pretty pathetic, who is in their base these days? The corporate Unions?

Dirk Gently

As depressing as it is you can't really blame people if the government is actually more popular now. It is a failure on the part of the opposition to do anything constructive. I'm sure a lot of Labour supporters will be bitterly disappointed that they are now aliened with the blue shirts, ruling out any kind of left or possibly even centre government. Likewise the blueshirt supporters will be somewhat dissatisfied with the labour connection but in fairness it shouldn't bother them that much as labour will fall in line and abandon any kind of socialism they might be holding onto sooner than FG will abandon its conservatism.

Truth be told there is no visible difference between the main parties and as a result no real choice. Only the PD's stand out as a party with a clear vision, unfortunately though a horrible neo liberal vision.

I think if people had a choice between a left wing party, a centre party and a right wing party we might see less apathy and more punishment of government failings by the public but when all the main parties are just one big fudge with no clear differences their seems little point getting upset about FF only to replace him with someone politically no different but with less experience.

In short I blame a pathetic opposition for the poll results. I'm sure if people had the choice of a strong alternative they would support it.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote:

the opposition can't put forward any good ideas this far from an election because the incumbent government would just steal them

That's depressing but probably true. It's sad how political parties in this country are so much more office seekers than policy seekers. Politics would be a lot healthier in this country if the opposition had more influence in policy (via more powerful oireachtas committees etc).

Akrasia

the Irish government voted to give themselves 4 pay rises this year, (well, that'snot fully true, the Taoiseach managed to give himself 6 pay rises) and they only work 3 days a week for 6 months of the year.

They spend the vast majority of their time and our money on just trying to get themselves re-elected. No wonder they're all so morally bankrupt.

mike65

The first job of an elected member is to get re-elected. Formulating or improving legistation is at ones discretion.

Mike.

wow sierra

All the vocal opposition to the Govt relates to side issues - PPARS, Electronic Voting, Bertie Gate etc

This gives the impression that there is nothing substantial to oppose.

The only serious issues being discussed relate to the State of the Health Service and Deaths on the roads. Anyone with a tiny bit of insight knows these are hugely complex problems to solve and the simplistic, repetative comments from the opposition in relation to them don't impress anyone.

The other simple fact is Fianna Fail are simply far better at the whole game/business of Politics (similar to Sinn Féin) - they have a way of having the finger on the pulse of the publlic.

The Bertie issue helped a lot also - nothing like attacking Fianna Fáil to get the support mobilised.

constitutionus

clown bag wrote:

As depressing as it is you can't really blame people if the government is actually more popular now. It is a failure on the part of the opposition to do anything constructive. I'm sure a lot of Labour supporters will be bitterly disappointed that they are now aliened with the blue shirts, ruling out any kind of left or possibly even centre government. Likewise the blueshirt supporters will be somewhat dissatisfied with the labour connection but in fairness it shouldn't bother them that much as labour will fall in line and abandon any kind of socialism they might be holding onto sooner than FG will abandon its conservatism.

Truth be told there is no visible difference between the main parties and as a result no real choice. Only the PD's stand out as a party with a clear vision, unfortunately though a horrible neo liberal vision.

I think if people had a choice between a left wing party, a centre party and a right wing party we might see less apathy and more punishment of government failings by the public but when all the main parties are just one big fudge with no clear differences their seems little point getting upset about FF only to replace him with someone politically no different but with less experience.

In short I blame a pathetic opposition for the poll results. I'm sure if people had the choice of a strong alternative they would support it.

some good points here. the main problem with the opposition is theyre not opposed to anything the government is doing. whilst im not taking a position on any of the following who do you vote for if you want the deal with shell reexamined? the military use of a civilian airport at shannon? the provision of services for our taxes i.e bin charges? enda and co havent taken a position on any of these issue thats contrary to the governments and thats why theyre losing. if they want to win the election they need to grow a pair of balls and state definetively where they stand on these issues and tell us if they actually represent an alternative view for the future development of the country. no ones gonna vote for em if all they represent in reality is the same government with different characters, and unproven ones at that.

its interesting to note in the poll that the oppostion parties to do well out of it are the greens and sinn fein. coincidently the only parties , bar higgins, to lay into bertie on actual issues during the bertiegate affair instead of trying to smear him. and also the ones whove come out and said they take an actual opposing view on the use of shannon and the protesters in mayo.

clownbags right, if we actually had parties that stood for something they'd be rewarded for it, if someone came out and said "were againsts toll roads, water rates , bin taxes, foreign military use of our airports thus violating our neutrality,acutally want to get something out of the countrys natural resources for the people of ireland instead of handing em lock stock and barrell to foreign multinationals and shock horror acutally want the millionaires in this country to pay 42% tax like everybody else earning over 33k and use that money to fund the previous issues" theyd get peoples attention

while im not saying clown bag or myself are infavor of these policies they would represent a seachange in the way this country is governed. an actual real alternative, and thered be a potentially huge protest vote there for em . i guess now we just have to wait for someone to have the courage to do it.

lostexpectation

hmm well the previous poll there a week aog was partly explained by the terrible position of FF/PD were in the last poll, someody out that was taken just after the A case, I don't know if this previous poll was taken at the same time, so it could be a repeat of rise rather then a continuation, along with the ridiculous bertie bounce

I suppose I'd have to ask why would the government be depressing if a majority of people didnt agree with you ?
Now dont get me wrong,there are loads of reasons to bash this particular government but at the end of the day this is a democracy and every one registered has a vote.

Theres plenty of time for the wind to change,but to be frank after what nearly 10 years,if people arent annoyed enough now to vote fro the opposition,you would want to be bracing yourself for more

constitutionus

plus remember its is still just a poll. these things are notoriously unreliable in certain situations depending on what question was actually asked. im actually starting to think it should be mandatory to put up what question was posited when media comment on these things. take the shell poll on support of their on shore refinery. they got huge mileage out of the fact 60% of people supported it, till it was pointed out the question asked was "if its impossible to do it at sea would you want it done on land" not exactly an unbiased question is it? and even worse shows that 40% still think it shouldnt be done regardless.

personally i think the poll is suspect. the anecdotal evidence i see is the people are majoryly pissed with this government and it doesnt tally with this result. i think we've got another citizenship referendum thing going on here what with no one in the media seeing that one coming. all in all the only result that matters will be in june

P.S does anyone know how they actually conduct these polls? no one i know has ever been asked. whats the base figure, 1000,10,000? is it a random selection out of the phonebook or electoral register or what?

Mad Finn

clown bag wrote:

I blame a pathetic opposition for the poll results.

Too true!

The questions asked are what the poll publishes.
It's fairly well recognised that 1000 random people is a typical poll sample.

They dont ask would you vote for FG if Enda Kenny and the entire shadow cabinet were found in questionable circumstances with donkeys and then publish the result as an answer to the question would you vote for fine Gael...

constitutionus

constitutionus wrote:

plus remember its is still just a poll. these things are notoriously unreliable in certain situations depending on what question was actually asked.

Yes. But presume in these type of polls it's a pretty straightforward 'who will you vote for in the next election'.

constitutionus wrote:

personally i think the poll is suspect. the anecdotal evidence i see

Polls are notoriously unreliable. But surely you are not suggesting that you would take anecdotal evidence as a more accurate measurement of opinion? :eek: Anecdotal evidence is the stuff used to form articles in Reader's Digest, Bella and Chat magazines. My anecdotal evidence is that everyone is happy with the government except for the lunatics who ring Joe Duffy, love Eddie Hobbs and who post on internet sites like you and I.

constitutionus wrote:

P.S does anyone know how they actually conduct these polls? no one i know has ever been asked. whats the base figure, 1000,10,000? is it a random selection out of the phonebook or electoral register or what?

I presume the marketing company would put exact details of their sampling and figures on their site. Of course it's not in their interests to start producing wildly inaccurate polls or they will simply become discredited and dropped by newspapers as a reliable source.

SeanW

Garfield the Cat could make a better government than the shower that are in ATM.

SeanW

SeanW wrote:

Garfield the Cat could make a better government than the shower that are in ATM.

Touché

is_that_so

Polls are good for analysts and talk radio. To me the reason is obvious
"They got nothing".
Not a solitary coherent policy that makes them even worth considering. You can whack Bertie with a wet salmon every so often but this is not America. Unless the government has committed some heinous crime we won't vote them out on negative ads. After all they have presided over a period that has made the country rich - or that part of the country that votes.
I'm with George Lee on this we need a vision for the next period of our existence and Bertie bashing isn't it.