Hand of the tournament???

5starpool

The Fitz festival 50 multi rebuy tonight.

10 left (13 paid). Great tournament in general, 3x30 min levels, all others were 25 mins. 95 runners. Prizes ranged from 300 for 10th, to 500 for 5th, 4450/2400/1500/1000 for top 4. We were playing 5 handed. I had moved to the table about 30 mins previously when we lost player 11.

Blinds had just gone up to 4k/8k. I had 102k. Folded to me on the button, and I make it 30k with 99. Small blind and table chip leader, the only one that covers me, goes all in. What do you do? 220k pot if I call, around 670k in play. The BB was Spectre from boards. It is almost certainly a coin flip at best. I would be left wth 72k if I fold now.

Is this an easy decision? I am not posting this with results based thinking in mind, this is more a general situation also.

If payout was evenly stepped and not so top heavy, would peoples decision be different?

Result in spoiler.

I called reckoning the gamble was worth the risk with only small increments to 5th, Spectre showed AK diamonds, and the board was all rags with 4 diamonds.

End result for him was that when he got 3 handed with about 500k vs 150k vs 120k, the other 2 decided to split 2nd and third and gave him first. Mad eejits. Fair play though Bobby, I didn't play with you for most of the tourney but you are a damn good player

5starpool

Oh, just to add. I won a big pot with a flopped flush, and then called an allin after betting the flop which gave me 2 overcards and a gutshot. I hit the gutshot and the legend that is the Chief to my left (not in the hand) said' You played that like the chief - you chiefed him!!'. I was not sure whether to be proud or not.

califano

5starpool wrote:

If payout was evenly stepped and not so top heavy, would peoples decision be different?

I think most players will say call every time but saying and doing are two different things. I'd say perhaps. If the prize money was more and in folding i'd still be ahead of at least 2 players etc but i'd still call more times than fold i reckon 80%-20%. But in this instance i'd call here just about every time. Unlucky and wp.

Spectre very pleased to hear of your great result. Just what you need to keep you living like a hog in Australia for a few months at least!.

BigCityBanker

Well done Bobby... great stuff. The perfect job before you head down south.

Hitman Actual

I wouldn't like having to call, but I probably do. It's annoying having to put your tournament on a coin-flip when you're only in the low playout places. You're soooo close to the real money after a lot of play. But here, half the time you get €300, and the other half you're usually guaranteed 4th, so its CEV and €EV to call.

Edit: Well done Spectre, very good result. Well done Dom too, but I suppose you're disappointed.

Mellor

I'd call too. Hoping for a coin flip. 72k to win 220k. Call and look away

strewelpeter

9's in that spot are a no brainer for me.

It was a great tournament, I enjoyed it a lot, even more than the scalps but after playing pretty solid stuff for almost 8 hours I found myself putting it all in on what I suspect most people will think is a far dodgier call than 5*'s. I have no regrets other than it felt really lousy to be heading off at half past four 5 places off the money But realistically I'm going to be as disappointed going home in 5th as 15th. OK the hurt is going to be eased by the monkey in my new money clip or coffee bag sealer as it is now known

I had got to the last two tables very shortstacked on about 14K and after a nice bit of successful shortstack play I got back up to a very playable 65K ish stack.
The blinds are 2k/4K and on my left is (I think one of you guys) a known good player who came to that table as the chip leader and without doing anything wrong has come down by about 30 to 100K ish. I'm in MP and raise to 12K with QQ and aforementioned known good player puts me all in and its folded back around to me.
Now I'm sure its not aces and I'm giving a very low percentaqge to Kings I'm almost certain that its AK but I have small hopes of QQ->10 10. Once I'm confident that if its not AK I'ts 90% that if a pair its not a bigger one then I'm calling that in this position everytime and twice on Sundays.

My thinking is that with 50K I'm still playing a short stack game with the two biggest stack having position on me and I'll have to double up off one of them sooner or later. If I get through this I'm on 130+ and giving myself a chance to win...If I fold I have another hour or two scraping to get through the bubble.
I suppose the only argument I can hear is that I've done my gambling in getting from 14 to 65 and with 50 behind I have two or three laps to try to find a better spot before its back to ATC poker.

So what do ye think how -EV is that call? or is there anyone else who its an instacall for?

Any it was very enjoyable night Well done to all who cashed.

Hitman Actual

@ Strewelpeter: Instacall for me going by your read.

spectre

Thanks lads, the call with 9's was spot on Dom. A weaker player goes into survival mode in this situation and looks for a reason to fold. The good player will always aim for the top spot and take the coinflip - particularly with the odds you're getting.

strewelpeter, to win any tournament, you will almost always have to win at least one coinflip, I had to win two last night, the other was against you I believe. Nobody ever folds QQ in your situation, I would be getting my money in just as quickly with JJ to be honest. Unlucky, well played.