Interesting hand - Flopped the top set

Mellor

Consider this hypothetical hand.

It's the first hand of the EPT in Dublin.
It's ten handed. You are the on the button.

You are dealt 9s9h
Everybody in the hand limps in.
So you follow suit and limp.
SB calls and BB checks.

The flop comes 3d 6h 9c.
You feel confident with the top set.
And to your left you hear the words All-in from the player in the sb.
BUT the BB calls. As do every other player at the table.
The action is on you. 9 all-ins in the pot. You have top set.
You wonder what thay are holding??
How likely are you to be out drawn??
What do you do?

Decision time................




EDIT: Now look at the other cards in the hand.
What hands can your opponents have, high pairs, other sets or straight draws?
Like this:
1. AA
2. KK
3. QQ
4. JJ
5. 66
6. 33
7. 45
8. 57
9. 78

You need to hit the 9 to stay in the lead in this hand. Or possible a house on the river if a straight card comes.
I ah a go at working out the odds and you pretty much getting no edge at all. about 11% to win against those hands.

valor

this is not an interesting hand at all

cardshark202

valor wrote:

this is not an interesting hand at all

Well its interesting that we're going to decuple up

Marcom

You're playing against idiots or a full table of very unlucky people because you are very far ahead. Either way you should be in this

Hectorjelly

cardshark202 wrote:

Well its interesting that we're going to decuple up

I think we lose the hand at least 55% of the time, maybe more. Obviously we still call.

Lafortezza

This is an easy fold given the hands you are likely to be up against.
You should fold and wait until you can exploit bigger edges against the resulting monster stack(s).

pokenum  -h 9d 9s  - 6d 6s  - 3h 3s  - ac kc  - 7h 8h  - kd ks  - qd qh  - 4s 5c  -- 3d 6h 9c 
Holdem Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 9c 3d 6h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
9s 9d  120  22.73   408  77.27    0  0.00  0.227
6s 6d   31   5.87   497  94.13    0  0.00  0.059
3s 3h   30   5.68   498  94.32    0  0.00  0.057
Ac Kc   21   3.98   507  96.02    0  0.00  0.040
8h 7h  179  33.90   349  66.10    0  0.00  0.339
Ks Kd   12   2.27   516  97.73    0  0.00  0.023
Qd Qh   24   4.55   504  95.45    0  0.00  0.045
4s 5c  111  21.02   417  78.98    0  0.00  0.210

cardshark202

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think we lose the hand at least 55% of the time, maybe more. Obviously we still call.

Yeah I think we win about 40% of the time on average.

Mellor

cardshark202 wrote:

Yeah I think we win about 40% of the time on average.

Pick 9 hands that could call this all-in. assumming that the other 9 players have different hands. After you give them all hands. You are ahead right now. only have 1 OUT for the turn.
Why? What hands can your opponents have, high pairs, other sets or straight draws?
Like this:
1. AA
2. KK
3. QQ
4. JJ
5. 66
6. 33
7. 45
8. 57
9. 78

Unless the case 9 falls on the turn you are behind. And possibly drawing almost dead. If on of the straight cards fall on the turn (2,4,5,7,8,10) you have only 2 or 3 (2 or a 10) outs for the river.
I know this is a made up situation, but I think it shows perfectly how the nuts can change as a hand progresses.

Bandana boy

It is 100% a call
but dont be suprised if we get beat
I put us at a win rate between 40-60% getting 9-1 yum yum

paul8200

Mellor, you weren't in the Fitz at a cash game on Friday were you? Practically this hand ... I have the set of 9s but 2 hearts on the flop.

BB bets pot. I re-pot it for 140 and get 3 callers (2 of which are all-in)

turn is a blank 2c I think. I push my last 120 and get called.

river 4s.

I take a €740 pot with my set of 9s.

Other hands were

bottom 2 pair
KK
busted gutshot (i kid you not - this was the last caller on the turn)

So it is a survivable hand:D

(in the Fitz!!!)

(ahem ... just read the op properly....obviously not exactly the same....just 3 others in the pot)

Hectorjelly

That is a worse case scenario, and even so you would still call. Btw the only thing this hand shows perfectly is why poker players shouldnt have kids

bohsman

Heres an interesting scenario

Your on your way to the EPT in Dublin when you find a lotto ticket on the ground, on closer inspection you see its the winning euromillions ticket

Do you still play the tournament?

If its worth 100million?
10million?
1million?
Its a scratchcard for £50?

bubbleking

bohsman wrote:

Heres an interesting scenario

Your on your way to the EPT in Dublin when you find a lotto ticket on the ground, on closer inspection you see its the winning euromillions ticket

Do you still play the tournament?

If its worth 100million?
10million?
1million?
Its a scratchcard for £50?

yeah pocket the ticket no matter what it is and play in the tournament you might just decide to play a little looser

phantom_lord

Without doubt go play the tournament.

Hectorjelly

bubbleking wrote:

yeah pocket the ticket no matter what it is and play in the tournament you might just decide to play a little looser

I think its pretty disgusting that you dont plan to give any money to charity

cardshark202

bohsman wrote:

Heres an interesting scenario

Your on your way to the EPT in Dublin when you find a lotto ticket on the ground, on closer inspection you see its the winning euromillions ticket

Do you still play the tournament?

If its worth 100million?
10million?
1million?
Its a scratchcard for £50?

No you don't play the tournament. You go to the nearest garda station to report the lost ticket and make sure it gets to its rightful owner. You guys sicken me you greedy fúcks

phantom_lord

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think its pretty disgusting that you dont plan to give any money to charity

lol.


I'd give my ept winnings.

bubbleking

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think its pretty disgusting that you dont plan to give any money to charity

i play poker i have no soul

ArmaniJeanss

Mellor wrote:

Pick 9 hands that could call this all-in. assumming that the other 9 players have different hands. After you give them all hands. You are ahead right now. only have 1 OUT for the turn.
Why? What hands can your opponents have, high pairs, other sets or straight draws?
Like this:
1. AA
2. KK
3. QQ
4. JJ
5. 66
6. 33
7. 45
8. 57
9. 78

Unless the case 9 falls on the turn you are behind and possibly drawing dead

Unless the EPT gets hit by an unexpected hurricane, how can a set of 9s ever be be drawing dead after the turn on a 963r flop?

Hectorjelly

I stole a homeless persons sandwich once then threw it away because it had sweet corn in it. I fcuking hate sweetcorn

ianmc38

Hectorjelly wrote:

I stole a homeless persons sandwich once then threw it away because it had sweet corn in it. I fcuking hate sweetcorn

LOL.

RoundTower

Or instead of that, here's an interesting one. Suppose you were on the big blind in the first hand of next year's WSOP main event. UTG goes all in for $10,000. Then UTG+1 goes all in. Then to your shock all the other players one by one go all in. You look down and see you have a pair of black aces. What would you do then????

Mellor

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

Unless the EPT gets hit by an unexpected hurricane, how can a set of 9s ever be be drawing dead after the turn on a 963r flop?

With the 9 hands I posted your are almost dead drawing to the last 9.

1. AA Ace on the turn and you are behind
2. KK.......Any King
3. QQ.......Any Queen
4. JJ.......Any Jack
5. 66.......Any 6
6. 33.......Any 3
7. 45.......Any 2 or 7
8. 57.......Any 4 or 8
9. 78.......Any 5 or 10

Any card except the nine on the turn you are behind. 23 cards out. 1 in 29 of being ahead on the turn. And you are drawing to the nine on the river 28/29 times, or when a straight car came on the flop, you have 2 or 3 more outs for a house.

phantom_lord

RoundTower wrote:

Or instead of that, here's an interesting one. Suppose you were on the big blind in the first hand of next year's WSOP main event. UTG goes all in for $10,000. Then UTG+1 goes all in. Then to your shock all the other players one by one go all in. You look down and see you have a pair of black aces. What would you do then????

:rolleyes:

bubbleking

RoundTower wrote:

Or instead of that, here's an interesting one. Suppose you were on the big blind in the first hand of next year's WSOP main event. UTG goes all in for $10,000. Then UTG+1 goes all in. Then to your shock all the other players one by one go all in. You look down and see you have a pair of black aces. What would you do then????

fold and wait for a better position......WTF man AA preflop what more do you want + its a chance to increase your stack 10 fold.

RoundTower

Hey I joined the Flipper club on Saturday night.

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

Hey I joined the Flipper club on Saturday night.

you did not .did you?
do you feel elite now?

Hitman Actual

bubbleking wrote:

fold and wait for a better position......WTF man AA preflop what more do you want + its a chance to increase your stack 10 fold.

Sarcasm detector switched off, bubbleking???

5starpool

RoundTower wrote:

Hey I joined the Flipper club on Saturday night.

You crashed your bike? :rolleyes:

It's ok to jest when he's ok........

bubbleking

lenny_leonard wrote:

Sarcasm detector switched off, bubbleking???

oooppps

5starpool

Mellor wrote:

Consider this hypothetical hand.

It's the first hand of the EPT in Dublin.
It's ten handed. You are the on the button.

You deal your self 9s9h

I wouldn't want to play in the EPT if it was self deal..........

We haven't had one of these threads in ages. I haven't really missed them.

What would you do if there was a 7 on board in snap, and another one came down? Would you go for snap even if your opponent had big hairy sweaty hands that you knew would hit really hard? Hypothetically speaking of course. This is to win the firsst big 'snap' of the game.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

cardshark202

RoundTower wrote:

Or instead of that, here's an interesting one. Suppose you were on the big blind in the first hand of next year's WSOP main event. UTG goes all in for $10,000. Then UTG+1 goes all in. Then to your shock all the other players one by one go all in. You look down and see you have a pair of black aces. What would you do then????

This is a very interesting situation. I have never seen this before. Could you start a new thread about it so it can be discussed in detail? After all we don't want to detract from the enlightening discussion here.

NickyOD

LMFAO @ 5Star and Lucky. I rule at snap!

Gholimoli

NickyOD wrote:

LMFAO @ 5Star and Lucky. I rule at snap!

i challenge you HU for bankrolls...

brianmc

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Your opponent has a significant edge in this situation. I would concede.

I think perhaps it may be the other way around. The extra inertia associated with the big sweaty hands probably gives your own smaller hands an edge in acceleration. However, I may be a little rusty on the finer points of the game because I gave it up due to it's violent nature.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

NickyOD

Gholimoli wrote:

i challenge you HU for bankrolls...

Ok. I'm sure you can easily afford the €10.

careca

Hectorjelly wrote:

I stole a homeless persons sandwich once then threw it away because it had sweet corn in it. I fcuking hate sweetcorn

you have a major problem and need to get it looked at. whats wrong with sweetcorn.

5starpool

careca wrote:

you have a major problem and need to get it looked at. whats wrong with sweetcorn.

I'm with Hector on this one. If some nice hobo is generous enough to have a stealable sandwich, he should make sure it has only nice things in it. It was probably a beetroot and sweetcorn sandwich.

cardshark202

5starpool wrote:

I'm with Hector on this one. If some nice hobo is generous enough to have a stealable sandwich, he should make sure it has only nice things in it. It was probably a beetroot and sweetcorn sandwich.

I can't say I agree with this. Sweetcorn is a vital ingredient to any high quality sandwich. I'm absolutely disgusted by the talk of throwing away what is probably a chicken, tomato, coleslaw and sweetcorn sandwich. mmmm

bohsman

RoundTower wrote:

Hey I joined the Flipper club on Saturday night.

What channels it going to be on?

Goodluck2me

5starpool wrote:

I wouldn't want to play in the EPT if it was self deal..........

We haven't had one of these threads in ages. I haven't really missed them.

What would you do if there was a 7 on board in snap, and another one came down? Would you go for snap even if your opponent had big hairy sweaty hands that you knew would hit really hard? Hypothetically speaking of course. This is to win the firsst big 'snap' of the game.

actually lol, no often that happens. Mods please move to humour forum

Goodluck2me

Hectorjelly wrote:

I stole a homeless persons sandwich once then threw it away because it had sweet corn in it. I fcuking hate sweetcorn

Nutrition Information : Sweetcorn
(yellow, raw)

Water (g/100g) 75.96
Food Energy (Calories) (kcal/100g) 86
Protein (g/100g) 3.22
Total Lipid (fat) (g/100g) 1.18
Ash (g/100g) 0.62
Carbohydrate (g/100g) 19.02
Total Dietary Fibre (g/100g) 2.7
Total Sugars (g/100g) 3.22
Calcium (mg/100g) 2
Iron (mg/100g) 0.52
Magnesium (mg/100g) 37
Phosphorus (mg/100g) 89
Potassium (mg/100g) 270
Sodium (mg/100g) 15
Zinc (mg/100g) 0.45
Copper(mg/100g) 0.054
Manganese (mg/100g) 0.161
Selenium (µ/100g) 0.6
Vitamin C (mg/100g) 6.8
Thiamin (mg/100g) 0.2
Riboflavin (mg/100g) 0.06
Niacin (mg/100g) 1.7
Pantothenic Acid (mg/100g) 0.76
Vitamin B6 (mg/100g) 0.055
Folate (µg/100g) 46
Folic Acid (µg/100g) 0
Food Folate (µg/100g) 46
Folate (Dietary Folate Equivalents/100g) 46
Vitamin B12 (µg/100g) 0
Vitamin A (µg/100g) 208
Vitamin A (IU/100g) 10
Retinol (µg/100g) 0
Vitamin E (µg/100g) 0.07
Vitamin K (µg/100g) 0.3
Alpha-carotene (µg/100g) 18
Beta-carotene (µg/100g) 52
Beta-crytoxanthin (µg/100g) 127
Lycopene (µg/100g) 0
Lutein & Zeazanthin (µg/100g) 764
Saturated Fatty Acid (g/100g) 0.182
Monosaturated Fatty Acids (g/100g) 0.347
Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids (g/100g) 0.559

How can you turn that down?

Lazare

cardshark202 wrote:

I'm absolutely disgusted by the talk of throwing away what is probably a chicken, tomato, coleslaw and sweetcorn sandwich. mmmm

I think your read is way off here.

How can a bum afford such a sandwich?

The odds of him holding this sandwich in his position are too big!

It has to be a sweetcorn and butter sandwich.

cardshark202

Lazare wrote:

I think your read is way off here.

How can a bum afford such a sandwich?

The odds of him holding this sandwich in his position are too big!

It has to be a sweetcorn and butter sandwich.

Its all hypothetical though cos we all no there's no such thing as a bum with a fresh and fully edible sandwich.

5starpool

cardshark202 wrote:

Its all hypothetical though cos we all no there's no such thing as a bum with a fresh and fully edible sandwich.

They bring them out to the lad outside the Fitz......

Then again that might be overstating sandwich quality, but hey, free is free.

Rnger

well theres 5 minutes of my life im not getting back

i could have being doing a sudoku

Ste05

I'm absolutely disgusted with HJ. TBH I've lost all respect for him.


I can't believe he'd throw away a sandwich with Sweetcorn in it. As Cardshark says, Sweetcorn is a VITAL ingredient for any sandwich...

Shame on you HJ, Shame!!!!!!

Hitman Actual

This thread is f**ked up. In a good way. For completeness, all we need now is for someone to tell someone else to go do something sinister with a goat.

Lafortezza

All of you can go **** some goats. Sweetcorn is optional!