[Article] Vehicles on roads expected to double by 2020

Victor

http://home.eircom.net/content/unison/national/9068677?view=Eircomnet

Vehicles on roads expected to double by 2020
From:The Irish Independent
Wednesday, 11th October, 2006

CAR ownership will double to nearly 3m vehicles by 2020 increasing the pressure on roads, land and commuters.

With road building and public transport lagging behind that will mean more congestion and ever longer commutes.

The population will rise to 5.3m by 2020 with a corresponding increase in the number of cars from its current level of 1.6m, Dr Dermot O'Brien of NCB Stockbrokers told the 'From Muck to Millions' land use conference in the RDS.

Official estimates by the National Roads Authority of 2m cars on our roads by 2020 are "at best conservative" as the Irish population will rise to 5.3m in that time putting huge extra pressure on our transport infrastructure, Dr O'Brien said. "It's clear that if you build more roads, people will use them, so unless you put viable public transport in place as an alternative, you're going to have more congestion," he said.

Demographic change has been the key driver of the economic boom and will remain a positive force over the next 10 to 15 years, while the population will continue to increase to around 6m by 2050, he said.

While increasing population will keep demand for new homes high, it will put added pressure on transport infrastructure that will need sustained public investment, said Dr O'Brien.

Despite recent blips the demand for new housing will remain strong at between 60,000 to 65,000 new units a year over the next 10 years, Dr O'Brien said. While housing activity may have come off the boil, the rising population make it inescapable that it will continue at a substantially higher rate than in previous eras. The homebuilding rate could rise even higher if immigration is above the expected level of 53,000 new arrivals a year, as 3,000 new homes are needed for every 10,000 extra immigrants.

Aideen Sheehan

silverharp

Peak oil is due in the 2008-2011 period by some experts, what exactly will all these cars run on?

DerekP11

silverharp wrote:

Peak oil is due in the 2008-2011 period by some experts, what exactly will all these cars run on?

The fart fumes of the Celtic Tiger.:D and Transport 21 will save you all.:eek:

spacetweek

silverharp wrote:

Peak oil is due in the 2008-2011 period by some experts, what exactly will all these cars run on?

Eh, biodiesel / biopetrol / electricity. I always laugh when people ask why roads are being built when oil is going to run out. In the future, there will be the same or more traffic than now, but the cars will all use alternative fuels. Apart from the that, the situation will be the same.

What, you think with the advent of the electric car that traffic jams will suddenly evapourate? Why would they? In fact if anything traffic will probably increase as people who used to curb their driving for environmental reasons no longer have to.

mike65

Heard something interesting today - we are, infrastucuraly speaking, worse off now than in 1987 on a per capita basis! Just thought I'd mention that.

Mike.

Stark

Dublin doesn't sound like it will be a pleasant place in 2020

Navan Junction

mike65 wrote:

Heard something interesting today - we are, infrastucuraly speaking, worse off now than in 1987 on a per capita basis! Just thought I'd mention that.

There's a surprise.. Do you have a ref for that?

mike65

Nope sorry. It was mentioned on the radio, can't even remember in what context or which station.

Mike.

DerekP11

mike65 wrote:

Nope sorry. It was mentioned on the radio, can't even remember in what context or which station.

Mike.

No need to reference it. The dogs in the street could tell you this.

1987 - less cars on the roads. Less employment. Less money, less shopping centres, less population, etc etc etc.

2006 - The opposite of the above.

Quite simply, infrastructural spending/planning by Goverment, has failed miserably to match growth in the economic and social areas. Decades of poor housing policy has caught up with the economically charged drive towards home/car ownership.

Ireland is rather unique as its urban planning policy was low density sprawl (unsustainable by public transport) while its rural policy was "one-off" housing that required car dependency.

mike65

Today I was on a track (very rough and muddy one vehicle width wide) near Kilmuckridge in Wexford, there is no way any sane local authority would allow domestic homes to be built down there but another two South Forks are sprouting forth. The track will come January be almost unnavigable. They never learn.

Mike.

Metrobest

DerekP11 wrote:

Ireland is rather unique as its urban planning policy was low density sprawl (unsustainable by public transport) while its rural policy was "one-off" housing that required car dependency.

Derek, it's not that unique.

All the Australian cities face the exact same problems. The unique situation in Dublin is that the streets are tiny and cannot cater for the traffic volumes on them. Dublin is a city for horses and cars and bikes, not giant SUVs.

There is a perception in Ireland that the congestion levels in Dublin are down to excessive use of the car, but that's only part of the story.

Dublin has the lowest car ownership rate in Ireland, and Ireland has one of the lowest car ownership rates in Europe. Things are only going to get worse - even if existing urban areas were consolidated and a high density policy implemented in outer suburbs.

Upgrading Dublin's road infrastructure to 21st century standards is going to be a mammoth task - possibly involving tunnels under the city with the Eastern Bypass under Dublin Bay and a tunnel under the Liffey from the Port to the M4/M50 junction. I think these projects should be looked into sooner or later. The city is going to need them. I mean, who ten years ago would have imagined we would have Transport 21?

Now even that 31bn Euro plan looks unambitious and tawdry.

Victor

Metrobest wrote:

Dublin has the lowest car ownership rate in Ireland, and Ireland has one of the lowest car ownership rates in Europe.

Its not the number of cars, but how they are used.

The CSO have found a glitch in the measurement of total distance travelled. Whatever estimate they had, which was very high by international standards, has been disrupted by results taken directly from NCTs, which were much lower.

Stark

Victor wrote:

has been disrupted by results taken directly from NCTs, which were much lower.

Clocked cars perhaps?

bmaxi

mike65 wrote:

Today I was on a track (very rough and muddy one vehicle width wide) near Kilmuckridge in Wexford, there is no way any sane local authority would allow domestic homes to be built down there but another two South Forks are sprouting forth. The track will come January be almost unnavigable. They never learn.


Mike.

Mike, I'm an ex Dub who moved to Wexford a few years back, before that I was a truck driver and travelled all over the country. I have to say Wexford takes the biscuit when it comes to planning. House entrances on blind bends ( I'm sure if you've ever travelled the road between Courtown and Ballymoney you'll have seen the entrance to Seaview housing estate and golf club on a hairpin bend), ramps that you need oxygen to get over and roundabouts even Hiace vans have difficulty negotiating. Gorey town is a joke, parking is allowed on both sides of Main St at all times despite congestion, (it's probably just a coincidence that some of the Town councillors have businesses on Main St)
I could go on and on but the fact is, not that they haven't learned but that they've learned too well. Money talks and big money talks loudest. Have a look at the housing applications that are turned down ( in the interests of public safety and aesthetics and other noble causes) which appear again a few weeks later with the door colour changed from mauve to pink or 50 type A's and 20Type B's becoming 51 type A's and 19 type B's and all of a sudden that's o.k. never mind the fact that there isn't a shop, school or doctor nearer than Ballybunion. God help you if you don't have a car, public transport is unheard of (this apparently is because the last stagecoach to venture down here was lost with all hands down a pothole created by 40ft juggernauts full of concrete trying to access roads 8ft wide). This is where the huge increase in car numberswill come from as wage earners needing a car to commute will have to have a second car at home to allow their family to function normally.

DerekP11

Metrobest wrote:

Derek, it's not that unique.

All the Australian cities face the exact same problems. The unique situation in Dublin is that the streets are tiny and cannot cater for the traffic volumes on them. Dublin is a city for horses and cars and bikes, not giant SUVs.

There is a perception in Ireland that the congestion levels in Dublin are down to excessive use of the car, but that's only part of the story.

Dublin has the lowest car ownership rate in Ireland, and Ireland has one of the lowest car ownership rates in Europe. Things are only going to get worse - even if existing urban areas were consolidated and a high density policy implemented in outer suburbs.

Upgrading Dublin's road infrastructure to 21st century standards is going to be a mammoth task - possibly involving tunnels under the city with the Eastern Bypass under Dublin Bay and a tunnel under the Liffey from the Port to the M4/M50 junction. I think these projects should be looked into sooner or later. The city is going to need them. I mean, who ten years ago would have imagined we would have Transport 21?

Now even that 31bn Euro plan looks unambitious and tawdry.

We are meant to live and apparently learn. However this is not always the case. As a "student" of Irelands public transport crisis (and learning fast) I tend to concentrate on the home soil. I agree with your points and Im quite aware that Ireland can be compared to other parts of the world. However and in relation to Dublin and your point about its tiny streets and SUVs, where do we go from there?

Ive a lot experience of traffic flows in Dublin and I don't think that T21 can get anyway near solving it. I appreciate the fact that we do actually need to invest very heavily in both workable road and rail solutions. I never subscribed to the "either or" philosophy. But surely you can appreciate that applying solutions to previously, badly planned, housing areas in Dublin and the ill-founded satellite towns, along with a renewed effort to plan in relation to high density development, could actually make progress. But T21 doesn't do this. So what do we do?

Metrobest

DerekP11 wrote:

We are meant to live and apparently learn. However this is not always the case. As a "student" of Irelands public transport crisis (and learning fast) I tend to concentrate on the home soil. I agree with your points and Im quite aware that Ireland can be compared to other parts of the world. However and in relation to Dublin and your point about its tiny streets and SUVs, where do we go from there?

Ive a lot experience of traffic flows in Dublin and I don't think that T21 can get anyway near solving it. I appreciate the fact that we do actually need to invest very heavily in both workable road and rail solutions. I never subscribed to the "either or" philosophy. But surely you can appreciate that applying solutions to previously, badly planned, housing areas in Dublin and the ill-founded satellite towns, along with a renewed effort to plan in relation to high density development, could actually make progress. But T21 doesn't do this. So what do we do?

Because of the way our suburban housing estates have been planned - there is often only one entrance into and out of a private estate - it is difficult for public transport to serve them in a meaningful way. The exception would be the canal ring suburbs which could support a metro.

Therefore, the next big step in infrastruture planning in Dublin is going to have a focus on upgrading the roads, combined with punitive measures designed to limit car usage.

The Frank McDonalds of this world complain that the government has been overspending on roads but let's face it: they haven't been spending enough. They need to recognise that congestion in Dublin won't go away just by sticking in a few ridiculous "QBCs" on streets too tiny to accomodate them. Token infrastucture is no replacement for spending big bucks on proper roads.

Every big city has road tunnels and I don't see why Dublin has to be the odd one out. A population of 2M by 2020 for Dublin is not unrealistic - that's the size of Barcelona or Kuala Lumper and look at the roads those cities have. And crucially, these cities are building more tunnels too.

As far as Dublin's tiny streets go, I think there has to a realisation that square pegs do not fit round holes. These streets aren't suitable for cars. Particularly, I'm thinking of places like the Quays, College Street, Nassau Street, Westland Row, Dawson Streets. These prime city streets should be given back to people, not cars. A view I've heard expressed by several urban planners who know Dublin is, "why on earth don't you just ban cars from that whole area of the south city centre?"' And I agree with them.

But if we're banning cars in the city centre we have to give motorists options for crossing the city without having to drive through the city centre.

I would like to see a North/South road tunnels under the city connecting the N11 (UCD) with and N3 (Blanchardstown) with an East-West tunnel from the N4 to the Port Tunnel. Further tunnels could run under the canals, the slowest roads in Dublin. Imagine what those tunnels would do to take traffic off the streets.

It's not just about catering to cars, it's about giving the city back to the people. How wonderful it would be to have a park running the length of the Grand Canal, and a city beach in summer from the FourCourts to Liberty Hall. These things can only happen if we put the roads underground.

However, to avoid an LA-style situation (where you're driving at 120km/h one minute, then 5km/h the next), Electronic Road Pricing should be brought in. Used in Singapore, this system charges you as you pass under the toll gantrys at peak times. The more you drive, the more you pay.

I believe Dublin's motorists are so frustrated with the current road infrastucture that they would gladly pay several Euro per day to avoid the congestion via the tunnels.

DerekP11

Tunnels yes. But without proper public transport no penetration can happen without the car. We also have to allow for the "obviius" traffic that has to enter these areas, even if we attempt to ban the car. Couriers etc.

As for suburban housing estates, your description is accurate and well known to some. It has long been established that we built housing developments that could not be properly served by public transport (buses).

I agree/disagree that the perception of "overspending" on roads is true. You are right when you say that we havent spent enough on "proper" road solutions. But in light of our poor road planning, you must be able to see why some assume that all this spending on "poor" road projects is a waste and "rail" must rule.

As I said before Metrobest, I favour both, as in any other European city Ive visted, Ive seen wonderful road and rail infrastructure that is light years ahead of Ireland in general and offers choice without compromising the integrity of life in the city. In Dublin, as an example, we have implemented very poor road projects and until quite recently, ignored the rail based transport options. Basically, Dublin hasn't got a clue as to where its actually going. Am I close?

Metrobest

DerekP11 wrote:

Basically, Dublin hasn't got a clue as to where its actually going. Am I close?

I think you are, Derek.

And I'm never going to live there again until all the infrastructure is sorted out. See you in 2050