99 Late on in MTT...

marius

About 30 left in an MTT im in late posn (1 before button) and have 10K in, blinds are 400/800. UTG (chip leader at table and seems relatively tight has about 35K) min raises. Folded to me, I look down at 99. Im pretty sure he has 2 overcards prob AK/AQ - what is my move? Given my read should I be prepared to race here?
I dont think I have any FE here but feel I will probably be going into the hand slight favourite.....

El Stuntman

marius wrote:

About 30 left in an MTT im in late posn (1 before button) and have 10K in, blinds are 400/800. UTG (chip leader at table and seems relatively tight has about 35K) min raises. Folded to me, I look down at 99. Im pretty sure he has 2 overcards prob AK/AQ - what is my move? Given my read should I be prepared to race here?
I dont think I have any FE here but feel I will probably be going into the hand slight favourite.....

ahhhhh, the ol' minraise

fold (I'm serious)

shoutman

Does he often min raise with hands such as AK/AQ?

If this is your read I would probably reraise to 3500 and push any non threatening board, unless you hit trips in which case I would slow play.

If he reraises you all in preflop I think I would probably fold as he may have something stronger then two overcards.

marius

shoutman wrote:

Does he often min raise with hands such as AK/AQ?

If this is your read I would probably reraise to 3500 and push any non threatening board, unless you hit trips in which case I would slow play.

If he reraises you all in preflop I think I would probably fold as he may have something stronger then two overcards.

He has not played a pot in ages so I think he has a decent hand - however he did luckbox his way to chiplead all in behind twice....

Don't like risking 3500 with the intention of folding to a push - this would leave me playing push poker. I cant see the chip leader laying down a hand, that they raised with UTG, to a 3x raise.

rogue trader

It's push or call for me, not re raise.
I think i would call.
If we feel he has AK, AQ (i would say it's more like KQ, KJ, A rag) and we are dealt a low flop, with 35k in chips, is he not obliged to represent a big hand and bet something?
If he does, i'd push
If an A, K hit on the flop we can get out of this without being out of the tourny.
There is also the possibility of hitting a set.

Gholimoli

shoutman wrote:

Does he often min raise with hands such as AK/AQ?

If this is your read I would probably reraise to 3500 and push any non threatening board, unless you hit trips in which case I would slow play.

If he reraises you all in preflop I think I would probably fold as he may have something stronger then two overcards.

this is very bad advice.
your suggesting to put nearly 40% of your stack in and then fold if comes over the top !!!
this is bad both in the raise and in the fold section.
if you raise him that much then your giving him odds to call with pretty much anything.
also when you put that much of your stack in there then your going to have to call him even if he does come over the top.
also what is a none threatening board?

to OP:
it really depend what you know if him.
have u seen him min raise before?
you can push and gamble or you can fold .
i would prob push unless i thought he was very tight.

marius

Gholimoli wrote:

this is very bad advice.
your suggesting to put nearly 40% of your stack in and then fold if comes over the top !!!
this is bad both in the raise and in the fold section.
if you raise him that much then your giving him odds to call with pretty much anything.
also when you put that much of your stack in there then your going to have to call him even if he does come over the top.
also what is a none threatening board?

to OP:
it really depend what you know if him.
have u seen him min raise before?
you can push and gamble or you can fold .
i would prob push unless i thought he was very tight.

Agreed re: the raise.
Say you know he has overcards - in general are you willing to risk your tourney life on a slightly better than 50/50 chance. You are getting odds of about 2.2:1 and you feel you are about 1.9:1.....IN GENERAL is this enough for you to risk your tourney life? Would you push in the WSOP?

Hitman Actual

It's a bit risky to be putting him on such a tight range, but if you think this is overcards more often an overpair, then fair enough. The easiest way to play the hand (besides folding) is to just push it and be done with it. You really need a double-up yourself; you're not that comfortable, and now could be a good opportunity to take it. Just calling is tricky as you could burn up a lot of chips on the flop when you'd be in trouble (i.e. you probably don't make much money on the flop if you're ahead, but could lose a lot when behind). Re-raising pre-flop with that stack and hand is poor.

Gholimoli

marius wrote:

Agreed re: the raise.
Say you know he has overcards - in general are you willing to risk your tourney life on a slightly better than 50/50 chance. You are getting odds of about 2.2:1 and you feel you are about 1.9:1.....IN GENERAL is this enough for you to risk your tourney life? Would you push in the WSOP?

see the thing is he will be asking him self the same question.
AJ/AQ/AK are well with in his range and when faced with a call for a third of his stack he would prob only call with AK and fold the other two.
If your asking me if I would do this then yes as if I knew he had AQ/AK/AJ there and I knew he was going to call my all in I would still do it because im looking to double up here and then try and go for a high finish.
Whilst folding here may be more conservative approach that could potentially move you up in the money a few places ,I generally look for a high finish.
If it’s the WSOP and each place in money is a huge step up then I would prob pass this.
But I would know that by passing this im not looking to take it down and just go up in prize.

slegs

Min raise at this stage of an MTT stinks especially by someone perceived as tight...would suggest he has better than AK/AQ

Fold..you can probably get your 10K back soon thru agression

jimbling

there is no option of either raising or calling. both bad plays. It's either a fold or a push.
You have just over 10BB, so if you think you're correct with the overcard judgement I would push every time. U have very little left to be playing around with..... i.e. stealing / general aggression. You need to take that edge at this point.

and people going on about risking tourney life..... no way is that a factor. You must risk it with any edge in this sort of situation. If he had 20/30BB then absolutely I would fold here everytime.

EDIT: obviously something like the WSOP, as gholi was saying, is different. But in general these tournaments pay very little outside the top 5 and almost nothing outside the top 10.

bubbleking

result?

BigCityBanker

Given the situation id push.

If I was in the Villians seat I fold to a push at this point/stacks unless I have JJ / QQ / KK / AA as I would like to protect my stack unless id be pretty sure im ahead. With AK or similar the probability that I am racing is enuf to frighten me off.

TacT

I would push and go in a slight favourite and only fold if I thought he was the kind of player that would do this with a better hand than Ax/Kx, ie TT+ fishing for a push further down the line from a shortstack.

phantom_lord

It's push or fold. I'd be leaning towards the push.

califano

Is this online or live?. Min raising isnt what it once was.
How about min raising him right back if your willing to commit all here?.

rogue trader

jimbling wrote:

there is no option of either raising or calling. both bad plays. It's either a fold or a push.
You have just over 10BB, so if you think you're correct with the overcard judgement I would push every time. U have very little left to be playing around with..... i.e. stealing / general aggression. You need to take that edge at this point.

and people going on about risking tourney life..... no way is that a factor. You must risk it with any edge in this sort of situation. If he had 20/30BB then absolutely I would fold here everytime.

EDIT: obviously something like the WSOP, as gholi was saying, is different. But in general these tournaments pay very little outside the top 5 and almost nothing outside the top 10.

Jimbling, you say push or fold and push your prefferable option.
But fold to me is no option (i do recognise merits of pushing) -
especially when its only 1600 to see a flop and you are in position.
But what worries me most about your advice is that you say that you fold everytime when you have 20 or 30bbs.
This is ridiculous.
You are not willing to risk seeing a flop to a min raise on the button with pocket 9's?
If this is the case than stealing your blinds must be easier than taking candy from a baby.

luckyvegas7

3 FT Tables today .... building br up nicely....

was CL in the 5k until my aq to a8 lost... he went on to win fair play to him... but ive a question....

To same villain on the bb blinds at 8/16k... im utg +1 6 handed... a9o

ive 90k..i raised to 36k... BB pushes... would you call here given how much you have invested, knowing that you are dominated?...i folded btw...just wondering would you fish here... that was when there was 10 left... i fin 7th.

jimbling

rogue trader wrote:

Jimbling, you say push or fold and push your prefferable option.
But fold to me is no option (i do recognise merits of pushing) -
especially when its only 1600 to see a flop and you are in position.
But what worries me most about your advice is that you say that you fold everytime when you have 20 or 30bbs.
This is ridiculous.
You are not willing to risk seeing a flop to a min raise on the button with pocket 9's?
If this is the case than stealing your blinds must be easier than taking candy from a baby.

I still think calling is a very bad play here. How can you say only 1600 - that's almost 1/6th your stack. You don't have the chips to be playing around.
If you do call then SB/BB are also more than likely going to call with the odds been offered. Now, if any overcard hits the deck you most likely have to fold.

I was leaning towards pushing based on the fact he felt it was a race. I feel you should be willing to race when your this short and still quite far from the "money".


As regards folding 99 in position with 20/30bbs.... you're right..... It was a knee jerk reaction to the "risking tournament life" issue...i.e with 10bb you absolutely need to risk, with 20/30bb you wouldn't need to risk.
I responded too quickly to the remark. Obviously if I had 30BB I would probably call, and sometimes raise with 99 in this position. But you do need to be very careful with such a fragile hand.


But the comment about stealing my blinds... come on mate. Who tries to steal the blinds from UTG??? if you do, then taking your chips anytime/anywhere must be easier than taking candy from a baby

peeko

rogue trader wrote:

Jimbling, you say push or fold and push your prefferable option.
But fold to me is no option (i do recognise merits of pushing) -
especially when its only 1600 to see a flop and you are in position.
But what worries me most about your advice is that you say that you fold everytime when you have 20 or 30bbs.
This is ridiculous.
You are not willing to risk seeing a flop to a min raise on the button with pocket 9's?
If this is the case than stealing your blinds must be easier than taking candy from a baby.

He wasn't on blinds, folding here in LP with 20/30xBB is a very viable option imo. If he was on blinds it would be a totally different situation.

Am I an idiot for thinking a tight player who min raises UTG always has a monster? AK/AA/KK/QQ possible JJ/TT/AQ?

I fold here and wait(hope) for better situation. If I was guaranteed the player UTG had only over cards I'd push, hoping for some FE, but because he was seen as tight I doubt I have this.

rogue trader

Firstly, jimbling your analysis behind pushing in your original post, IMO, was perfectly valid and i agree with it.
and i didnt mean to have a go with the remark about stealing your blinds

However, and this refers to Peeko's comments as well.
I still believe that folding here is not an option. People speak about waiting for better opportunities... like what?
If somebody is considering folding this hand than IMO they should at least call, as i dont believe min raising necessarily equates to a monster. I think we are giving this min raise too much credit.

peeko

rogue trader wrote:

I think we are giving this min raise too much credit.

probably true

peeko

rogue trader wrote:

Firstly, jimbling your analysis behind pushing in your original post, IMO, was perfectly valid and i agree with it.
and i didnt mean to have a go with the remark about stealing your blinds

However, and this refers to Peeko's comments as well.
I still believe that folding here is not an option. People speak about waiting for better opportunities... like what?
If somebody is considering folding this hand than IMO they should at least call, as i dont believe min raising necessarily equates to a monster. I think we are giving this min raise too much credit.

When I say wait (hope) for a better op, I'm hoping I can make a good positional raise all in with no limpers behind me in this or the next orbit. Or possibly pick up a hand. Like I say I'm hoping. I just don't like the min raise UTG from a tight player. And I am by no means a good MTT player, so please tell me how wrong my thinking on this matter is.

marius

When im this late in a tourney a bit short stacked and I see 99 I am only folding to a push before me - if, as in this case, it is raised before me I see that as being perfect - more chips for me when I push.

Basicaly I pushed here and was called by AK. The reason I posted this is because I think there is an arguement here for just calling and seeing the flop. My read was 2 overcards and that my push would get called. My question is - if I am going to trust this read - is calling and seeing what the flop is like, the best option? In the situation where flop is bad we can fold to any action, where flop is good we can push and the 2 overs are far more likely to fold. Basically by pushing I was going to win more chips if things worked out - but by calling I will loose far less chips on a bad flop or win less on a good flop - but my tourney life will not (yet) be on the line. Also I can still double up with a very favourable flop.

Thoughts?

jimbling

rogue trader wrote:

Firstly, jimbling your analysis behind pushing in your original post, IMO, was perfectly valid and i agree with it.
and i didnt mean to have a go with the remark about stealing your blinds

However, and this refers to Peeko's comments as well.
I still believe that folding here is not an option. People speak about waiting for better opportunities... like what?
If somebody is considering folding this hand than IMO they should at least call, as i dont believe min raising necessarily equates to a monster. I think we are giving this min raise too much credit.

You're looking at it the wrong way though... you say if you consider folding then call. I say if you consider calling then push. Therefor..... you have no choice but to push

jimbling

peeko wrote:

When I say wait (hope) for a better op, I'm hoping I can make a good positional raise all in with no limpers behind me in this or the next orbit. Or possibly pick up a hand. Like I say I'm hoping. I just don't like the min raise UTG from a tight player. And I am by no means a good MTT player, so please tell me how wrong my thinking on this matter is.

why do you not want any limpers behind you? The best position for stealing some chips is not in late position when no one's in the hand yet. It's when there was a limper, even two, from mp and you're in late.

bubbleking

hang on i think i remember this hand did you spike a 9 on the river to beat 2 pair?

Hitman Actual

marius wrote:

When im this late in a tourney a bit short stacked and I see 99 I am only folding to a push before me - if, as in this case, it is raised before me I see that as being perfect - more chips for me when I push.

Basicaly I pushed here and was called by AK. The reason I posted this is because I think there is an arguement here for just calling and seeing the flop. My read was 2 overcards and that my push would get called. My question is - if I am going to trust this read - is calling and seeing what the flop is like, the best option? In the situation where flop is bad we can fold to any action, where flop is good we can push and the 2 overs are far more likely to fold. Basically by pushing I was going to win more chips if things worked out - but by calling I will loose far less chips on a bad flop or win less on a good flop - but my tourney life will not (yet) be on the line. Also I can still double up with a very favourable flop.

Thoughts?

It should be easy enough to do the maths to compare the two (haven't time to do this now). Pushing pre-flop is easy, it's just the Chip EV of 99 v AK/AQ with no folding equity (sticking by your read).

On the flop it's a bit trickier, as you're not sure how opponent will play it. But if you're assuming that he always checks when he misses, then just work out the EV of calling preflop, and then pushing a non-AorKorQ flop when checked to.

We're assuming a lot here, but it should give a good idea of which option looks better.

marius

bubbleking wrote:

hang on i think i remember this hand did you spike a 9 on the river to beat 2 pair?

Nope....;)
Flop was a nice raggedy 8 6 3 or something:D - river was a K:mad:

I think that if I called - it probably would have been checked to me at which point I could have pushed and probably taken it down....

Problem is if I just call I am letting more people see the flop - BB will probably have a look with any two and SB might be tempted too......

marius

lenny_leonard wrote:

It should be easy enough to do the maths to compare the two (haven't time to do this now). Pushing pre-flop is easy, it's just the Chip EV of 99 v AK/AQ with no folding equity (sticking by your read).

On the flop it's a bit trickier, as you're not sure how opponent will play it. But if you're assuming that he always checks when he misses, then just work out the EV of calling preflop, and then pushing a non-AorKorQ flop when checked to.

We're assuming a lot here, but it should give a good idea of which option looks better.

I think it is a little more complicated than that - purely because there are people to act after me - if I call SB and more likely BB will have a look also....

Hitman Actual

luckyvegas7 wrote:

3 FT Tables today .... building br up nicely....

was CL in the 5k until my aq to a8 lost... he went on to win fair play to him... but ive a question....

To same villain on the bb blinds at 8/16k... im utg +1 6 handed... a9o

ive 90k..i raised to 36k... BB pushes... would you call here given how much you have invested, knowing that you are dominated?...i folded btw...just wondering would you fish here... that was when there was 10 left... i fin 7th.

You should always start a new thread, as you probably won't get many replies by piggy-backing, and it just switches the focus off the original post.

The simple answer for your Q is that you shouldn't be raising 40% of your stack like you did here, especially when you have only 5BBs. Either move all-in, or fold. And you have to call the push now, although A9o is probably marginal, but it's online so the ranges are wide. (btw, how much did the BB have, not that it makes much difference here, but it might in other cases).

Also, give more info in your questions: other stack sizes, thoughts on main opponents' play, etc.

rogue trader

jimbling wrote:

why do you not want any limpers behind you? The best position for stealing some chips is not in late position when no one's in the hand yet. It's when there was a limper, even two, from mp and you're in late.

Ok now we are getting somewhere.
.....whats more apparent, however, is that folding is NOT an option.

rogue trader

jimbling wrote:

You're looking at it the wrong way though... you say if you consider folding then call. I say if you consider calling then push. Therefor..... you have no choice but to push

oops wrong thread should have been reply to this one

Hitman Actual

marius wrote:

I think it is a little more complicated than that - purely because there are people to act after me - if I call SB and more likely BB will have a look also....

Agreed, but I assumed you were just talking about the situation where it was heads up with the original raiser. But with SB and BB in you have to hope it's checked to you by three players, and that they all fold to your push, so most of the time you're just wasting that 1600 with the pre-flop call (unless you make some crazy move on the flop). So just raising all-in pre-flop clearly looks like the better option. Or fold.

jimbling

rogue trader wrote:

Ok now we are getting somewhere.
.....whats more apparent, however, is that folding is NOT an option.

folding is most definitely an option. You can be pretty confident that you are going to get called and it's either a higher pair or two overcards.

What people mean by better opportunities, are spots where they have a higher folding equity. If you have 58o and a much higher folding equity you would be far better off.
Best case scenario you are 55/45 to win the hand (unless this guy is a complete donk and has a pair lower than 9s).

In saying that... I would generally push

peeko

jimbling wrote:

why do you not want any limpers behind you? The best position for stealing some chips is not in late position when no one's in the hand yet. It's when there was a limper, even two, from mp and you're in late.

noted. ty