The Arc next Sunday-1st Oct

fr wishy washy

Anybody fancy something outside the top 2 or 3 in the betting.
I think Sixties Icon at about 16/1 is going to be my bet.He goes on any ground and will definitely get the trip.I don't think the top three are good value at 3/1.

ChuckProphet

I backed sir percy in june. now he's out. i'm gonna give up antepost betting altogether. It's a tough one to call. If I had to pick one of the top 3 I'd pick deep impact. But the odds are skimpy enuff. Rail link could be the one for me tho. Sixties icon does look a decent e/w bet at 16-1 but st. leger winners have a poor record in this afaik.

Robin1982

I backed Deep Impact at 7/1 in June and although I'm still happy with the bet, there is obviously some temptation to trade some out.

As for the current market, I'd love to see Alexandrova run (and at ~12/1 I think thats a very good price) but with Hurricane Run in the field thats more than unlikely. Pride probably represents place prospects but I can't see the winner outside the top 3.

wb

I don't think I'll have a bet, but I can't wait to see how deep impact runs. After watching some of his races, he really is quite a unique horse. It will be interesting to see how he gets on with this company.

ChuckProphet

Robin1982 wrote:

I backed Deep Impact at 7/1 in June and although I'm still happy with the bet, there is obviously some temptation to trade some out.

As for the current market, I'd love to see Alexandrova run (and at ~12/1 I think thats a very good price) but with Hurricane Run in the field thats more than unlikely. Pride probably represents place prospects but I can't see the winner outside the top 3.

I agree with Alexandrova. If she were to run at 12-1 I'd be on her. Unlikely tho. Has deep impact beaten much in japan? it's hard to judge the form tho you can't really argue with 11 from 12 wins

oceansize

Sixties icon looks tasty. He was still on the bridle after already running 12 Furlongs in the Leger. And to his advantage. Fabre thinks theres not going to be much pace in the race. Sixties icon is my bet.

He has the pedigree for this race as well. His Sire's dam won this race after all, and his own dam won the oaks at this distance... well.

Hurricane has been a flop in the last couple of races as far as i can see, and deep impact has come a long way.

oceansize

ChuckProphet wrote:

I agree with Alexandrova. If she were to run at 12-1 I'd be on her. Unlikely tho. Has deep impact beaten much in japan? it's hard to judge the form tho you can't really argue with 11 from 12 wins

Ye sounds good, but the last Jap horse to come over was supposed to be great as well, and he got his arse handed to him by the europeans. Can'd remember his name now. Think it was Manhattan Cafe or Manhatten something or other.

ChuckProphet

oceansize wrote:

Ye sounds good, but the last Jap horse to come over was supposed to be great as well, and he got his arse handed to him by the europeans. Can'd remember his name now. Think it was Manhattan Cafe or Manhatten something or other.

the only one i remember was el condor pasa, who was just beaten by montjeu in the arc. apparently deep impact is a far beter horse.

Crumbs

ChuckProphet wrote:

Has deep impact beaten much in japan? it's hard to judge the form tho you can't really argue with 11 from 12 wins

The obvious line of form with Deep Impact is through Hearts Cry, the horse that beat him last December when Take (Deep Impact's jockey) admitted that he fecked up his timing.

Hearts Cry went on to win a big race in Dubai (the Sheema Classic?) and was very close to winning the King George at Ascot in June, finishing marginally behind Hurricane Run and Electrocutionist. I'm sure Deep Impact is regarded as a better horse than Hearts Cry so he has a glaringly obvious chance to win this Arc.

There are light rain showers forecast for the weekend in Paris and although anything like good ground should be fine for him, soft ground would be a concern (and would greatly help Hurricane Run and Pride).

Arc races are generally run over a fast pace but there's a possibility of there not being much pace on this time and that would be against Deep Impact. You could see a horse like Shirocco being kicked on from the front with 3 furlongs to go and not being caught.

I'd love to see Deep Impact winning but if he loses, I hope it's not down to the jockey taking him 7 horses wide around the final two bends before finishing like Dancing Brave on acid but just failing to head the leader. I think if the jockey just runs his own sectionals, Deep Impact will win.

Japanese racing has improved a lot in recent years. They've invested highly in breeding and the prize-money on offer is huge compared to Europe.

Robin1982

I can think of only 3 Japanese horses that have run in the Arc;

Tap Dance City ran in Bago's Arc win (04 I think) setting a strong pace before finishing almost last. He had previously won the Japan Cup by 9L (unchallenged on the lead) but never reproduced a similar performance.

Manhatten Cafe had won the Japanese St. Leger and the Spring Tenno Sho but was well beaten behind Marienbard on 02.

El Condor Pasa was an excellent Japanese trained horse - however after winning the Japan Cup he raced exclusively in Europe in 1999; winning the G1 Prix d'Isphan and G1 GP de Saint-Cloud and the traditional older-horse Arc prep, the G2 Prix Foy. It took an exceptional horse in Montjeu to beat him in the Arc, the pair finishing 6L ahead of the rest.

Japan has an excellent record when sending horses to Europe and abroad - in recent years Seeking The Pearl, Stay Gold, Agnes World, Cesario, Agnes Digital and Heart's Cry have all won G1s around the world.

Hawk Wing

The Hurricane for the double, he'll gallop the **** out of them

fr wishy washy

oceansize wrote:

Sixties icon looks tasty. He was still on the bridle after already running 12 Furlongs in the Leger. And to his advantage. Fabre thinks theres not going to be much pace in the race. Sixties icon is my bet.

Likewise, but has been very weak in the last couple of days on the exchanges
16/1 - 20/1:(

fade2black

I´d be amazed if sixties icon was good enough in this. A waste of money supplementing to be honest. SI won a prtty average leger and this is a lot hotter. I don´t think the ground will be right for deep impact and i think fabre will dominate the race with his main three. Surprised that some of you are thinking about backing sixties icon to be honest.

ChuckProphet

looks like alexandrova is running in the prix l'opera

kincsem

I have a small bet on Irish Wells at 150 on Betfair.

He might be taken out if the ground is firm. He was a close-up 6th in the French Derby, and has won twice since, beating the 2004 Italian Derby winner at Deauville in his last race, getting weight but winning easily on very soft ground.

oceansize

Hawk Wing wrote:

The Hurricane for the double, he'll gallop the **** out of them

Pride is not good enough to go close in this i wouldn't say. And pride has been close to Hurricane in his last 2 runs. Including 1 win. Another 50-100 yards and Pride would have beaten both of them last time out.

Corben Dallas

Pride is the horse that turned over Hurricane Run in France few races back, (mugged himn on the line to nick it)?
If so seems to have a bit of quality about him, Should be Hurricanes race, KF onboard and if its wet/damp then def. Seem to remember that French race(Longchamps?) Pride beat HR was mucky as well,(tho HR seemed not to travel as freely as i've seen.
Hurricane to win.
Pride good e/w bet? (if any more than 8's) what is Christian Smullion riding?

ChuckProphet

Corben Dallas wrote:

Pride good e/w bet? (if any more than 8's) what is Christian Smullion riding?

he's on shirocco. anyone have the best price available on rail link ??