Time to stop backing on the Flat?

masterK

After noticing a larger number than usual outsiders winning in Flat races over the last couple of weeks I decided to do some research.

Over the last couple of weeks (since 9th September) for races I've kept stats in 56 out 173 races have been won by horses priced 10/1 or greater, that's 32.36% of winners.

Comparing that to the period from the 1st of June to September 8th 128 out of 697 winners were priced 10/1 or over, or just 18.3%.

These stats show are fairly substantial rise in the number of outsiders winning recently, I don't have stats for previous years but would guess they are quite similar.

Crumbs

Interesting stat.

I remember posting here this time last year about how September and October have always been losing months for me when most other months are winning ones and as such, I'm happy to say that I've hardly made a bet at all in the last few weeks.

Which is a shame because a lot of my horse tracker runners have won recently.

Bluetonic

One word. Weather.

masterK

Bluetonic wrote:

One word. Weather.

I'm not so sure the weather can be totally to blame, of the 173 races since 9th September 75 were on Good to Firm ground while 65 where on Good ground. I personally believe one of the main factors is a lot of horses having long seasons and going off the boil and therefore not running as expected, many badly need a break.

Bluetonic

Since the 9th of September how many of the 56 >= 10/1 winners have run and won prior to September 9th this season?

ricerocket

most tipping sites - (non-premium ones) will tell you to avoid backing towards the end of the flat season - makes sense that trainers would have their horses geared up for the big summer meetings - time to start looking at the NH

Morgans

I think its a mixture of reasons but trainers who think they have a horse well handicapped wont want to ruin it by winning less valuable races at this time of the season. I suppose the cesarawich,cambridgeshire, and the Novermber handicaps are left.