Draw heavy flops

connie147

I'm talking mtt here, online only. I see this situation becomming more and more prevalent over the last few weeks and I'd like some opinions on it.

For instance you hit two pair on a two tone flop,bet out 800 into an 800 pot,
(say hero 5,000 stack--villian 5,000 stack ), now mostly I find these players are reraising all in on a flush draw hoping to take it down here by hero folding or possibly doubling up if called.
Blind are still relatively small, 100-200 and your on the average stack. I find this kind of situation is knocking me out of a lot of tournaments on line and I'm just wondering how right or wrong is the fold in this position.

I know the possiblity of a set is there as well but a lot of the players I come across on the site I play are known to me so I'm pretty sure I know what I'm up against . Might sound like a bad beat moan but its not really,I understand varience but the amount of times this specific situation comes up merits others opinions for me.
Even though I'm fairly sure I'm ahead after the flop and I think my opponnent is drawing to hit a flush, is it right to put my tourney life on line in this spot?

Mellor

Yeah call. The odds that he will hit a flush with turn river is >50%. So your fav to win and have the odds to call.
Throw in the situation where he hits his flush and can still lose and your looking even better. If you lose, and it happens, then its just tough luck.

The only situation where i would fold is say very early stages and I have a massive stack, say top 5 out of 100 in tourney. And the only player at the table who covers puts me all in. I might fold here because I can get alot of play out of my stack and he is the only one to bust me. But then again i might call and try go top.
MTT are full poxy drawing hands, short stacks going for it pre-flop with J7 and making a str8.

BIG-SLICK-POKER

Mellor wrote:

Yeah call. The odds that he will hit a flush with turn river is >50%. So your fav to win and have the odds to call.
.

If the odds r 50/50 hows it in his favour m8

neill

phantom_lord

Mellor wrote:

>50%

That means less than fifty.

carfax

phantom_lord wrote:

That means less than fifty.

It actually means greater than fifty but we know what you meant Connie, lol.

I would say that most of the time I would be calling there early on simply to put yourself in a good position later but I would also try not to get myself into a situation where I was the one calling the all-in.

Maybe it would be a good idea from time to time to re-raise all-in when you think you're in that situation even if it means a big over-bet.

carfax

carfax wrote:

It actually means greater than fifty but we know what you meant Connie, lol.

Sorry Connie, I didn't mean to incriminate you in that.....It was Mellor I ment to refer to.

I suppose thats what I get for trying to be a smart ass.

Mellor

BIG-SLICK-POKER wrote:

If the odds r 50/50 hows it in his favour m8

neill

Hero bets 800 into 800 pot.
Villian re-raises 4200.
The pot stands at 5800.
The hero needs to call 4200 to win this. Which is about 7/5 pot odds
The Hero is more than 2/1 favourite.
About 68%.

The maths of it makes it a call. You will get busted the odd time. But you will win more.

And sorry I used the wrong sign in my first post. I'll leave it as is to save confusion.
But even if it was a 50/50 as Big Slick asked, the pots odds still are 7/5. Call

spectre

It's a maths problem and it all depends on how often you think your opponent is on a draw and the odds your getting to call.

If say 20% of the time, he has a set and you're drawing to two outs, the expected number of wins is:

0.2*(0.084) + 0.8*(0.6875) = 56.68%

Therefore your expectation is:

0.5668*5800 - 0.4332*4200 = 1468

So you can expect to make 1468 chips by calling.

If you think he has a set more often than 45% you should fold

Mellor

spectre wrote:

If say 20% of the time, he has a set and you're drawing to two outs, the expected number of wins is:

I based my calcs on a flush draw only, as the OP came accross as annoyed with hands drawing out on him.

But if you are up against a set, you might have no outs, two outs or four outs. Depending on which it is.
Guessing thats why you took 2 outs as the average.

fold to a set, call a draw, but which is which

phantom_lord

carfax wrote:

It actually means greater than fifty but we know what you meant Connie, lol.

.