Saturday

scojones

Ayr
1.40 Glenbuck should go well in the 1.40 at Ayr. This is its first time taking on a class 3 challenge but given it's recent form you can see why the trainers are coming here today. Francis Norton is 2 from 2 on it, and it has a good draw being drawn in stall 1. 1st @ 7/1

3.15 Borderlescott (NAP) was a big winner for me last time out at 10s, and I'm a long time supporter of this horse since November 2005. Will do well to win here again but is expected to run a big one and is certainly used to this company. Royston Ffrench has partnered this horse more times than I've had hot dinners. 2nd @ 11/2

Catterick

3.05 Monkey Glas' step up to 7f proved effective when winning last time out under the hands of Pat Cosgrave. Good form as of late and should appreciate the step up in class today given the generosity in the weights. Seb Sanders takes the mount on this Karl Burke 2yo for the first time today. unplaced

3.40 Anything could win this race, but if Nero's Return can reproduce it's latest effort to win at Epsom then it should have anyone win under it's belt today. unplaced

Newbury

3.30 Formal Decree (NB) won a race nearly identical to this 2 runs ago, and failed to win again last time out in similar circumtances when the ground was easing to soft. It has taken well to the step up in trip and a repeat performance of two runs again is expected again today. 3rd @ 9s

4.05 Dixie Belle was a 50/1 3rd last time out in a race that was dominated by Tax Free. My placepot system threw out this as a selection when it came 3rd at 50s and again today. I'm honestly just chancing my arm with this selection and won't be having any significant money on it. Hoping for a place at best. 1st @ 50/1

4.40 Leaving out Ascot's run, Plum Pudding's form is impressive. Especially it's most recent effort at Newmarket. A repeat of that effort should see it go close today unplaced

Warwick
1.45 Namir is starting to become somewhat expensive for me to follow since it won at 12/1 back in June. It has won on soft ground and good to soft ground back in early 2005 so I'm hoping today's going won't be too much of an issue for it. Should appreciate being back in class 6 company. unplaced

4.30 Gandalf is a lightly raced sort who should be used to this company by now. Expected to go close. unplaced

wb

My thoughts on the Curragh:

3:10
Supposition ticks the boxes for me here. Currently trading at just over evens at 2.2, the Weld trained filly looks a cut above the rest. Only races 3 times, she has done well on each occasion including a win. She also is proven on the distance.

Bet:
Supposition to win @ 2.2 (2pts)


3:45
I’m probably going to be lynched for this, but I’m going to oppose Yeats here. While there is no denying that he has turned out to be one of the stars of O’Brien’s yard, he can have the odd off day, and 1/3 does not represent good value to me. Instead, I’m going to go with the Oxx trained Kastoria. Kinnane is on board this C&D winner today, and I think this filly has plenty more to come. She is proven on the ground, and unlike Yeats, the distance. Her form has been great too. Currently 7.4 on betfair. In the place market, there are 3 places up for grabs, so I think 1.45 is not too bad value also.

Bets:
Kastoria to win @ 7.4 (1pt)
Kastoria to place @ 1.45 (3pts)


4:15
Although carrying top weight, Davorian looks decent enough to me here. Beggy has won on him before and always gives him a good ride when on board. It is also worth noting that blindly backing Burns’ horses at the Curragh shows a small profit too, and I‘d expect at least a place.. A decent enough price at 13/1 too. The main threat here is Rockall Blizzard. Slippers is on board, and this C&D winner has been showing great form, so it could be worth a place bet at 1.6

Bets:
Davorian to win @ 14 (1pt)
Davorian to place @ 2.48 (3pts)
Rockall Blizzard to place @ 1.6 (3pts)

scojones

I'm also opposing Yeats today and going in favour of The Whistling Teal who is currently 20/1 with PP. The veteran ran a great race last time out but the final furlong was too much. Today's effort is 2f shorter and that is a huge positive. I would be very surprised and delighted if it beat Yeats today, and I'm hopeful of a 2nd place result.

scojones

sjones wrote:

Ayr
1.40 Glenbuck should go well in the 1.40 at Ayr. This is its first time taking on a class 3 challenge but given it's recent form you can see why the trainers are coming here today. Francis Norton is 2 from 2 on it, and it has a good draw being drawn in stall 1.

First @ 7/1. Made all the running and won comfortably.

Warwick
1.45 Namir is starting to become somewhat expensive for me to follow since it won at 12/1 back in June. It has won on soft ground and good to soft ground back in early 2005 so I'm hoping today's going won't be too much of an issue for it. Should appreciate being back in class 6 company.

In a photo for second - unplaced.

Crumbs

Regarding the Ayr Gold Cup (3:15), I think Fantasy Believer can overcome his weight rise for winning at York last week. He's 8lbs worse off with the fav here after beating him 3.5 lengths that day but he won so well and coupled with being drawn better in stall 23, I can see the 8yo confirming those placings. My main worry is traffic problems as Fantasy Believer is ridden off the pace and most of the middle-drawn runners are going to bunch across towards the stands side, so Jimmy Quinn is going to have to find a good gap. I've taken 8.6/1.

Two bigger priced horses I came up with who could go well are Woodcote (drawn 20) and Viking Spirit (drawn 25). They should both race up with the pace. Woodcote is quite consistent and Viking Spirit is a fresh horse with some decent form last year. Pricewise wrecked the price a little on Viking Spirit but I've taken 25/1 e/w on both of them.

The 2:40 at the Curragh is a weak Group 3 and I'd give Beckermet a decent shout at 5/1. He didn't run well here a month ago but that was a stronger race than this and I'll give him another chance here. Also, Beauty Bright at 5/1 to place is decent value. I don't think she can win but she was only a short-head 2nd to Indian Maiden over this distance 6 weeks ago and Indian Maiden is 11/4 fav for this today. Beauty Bright wins, 30/1 on Betfair.

scojones

Well done Wayne! Top stuff mate.

fade2black

Nice one wayne. And nice picking from yourself jonesy.

Sizzler

Whats the chances of Mick & Oxx getting the treble up now with Karawana in the next

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Nice one wayne. And nice picking from yourself jonesy.

Cheers man.

sjones wrote:

Ayr


4.05 Dixie Belle was a 50/1 3rd last time out in a race that was dominated by Tax Free. My placepot system threw out this as a selection when it came 3rd at 50s and again today. I'm honestly just chancing my arm with this selection and won't be having any significant money on it. Hoping for a place at best.

50/1 winner. :eek:

Sizzler

Fook me Jonesey :eek: Tell me you had a few quid on it !

Ridden by FTB's mate as well

scojones

Sizzler wrote:

Fook me Jonesey :eek: Tell me you had a few quid on it !

Ridden by FTB's mate as well

Aye. I did 2.50 e/w at 66s and when it went into 50s again I put another 2.50 e/w on it at 50s.

fade2black

Jaysus!!!! Well done Petey.....

Tom is really riding out of his skin at the moment. He doens't give tips these days...everything just "has a chance"...typical.

Seriously though, Peter, that was brilliant, top tipster!!!!

Stick with this system for definite.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Jaysus!!!! Well done Petey.....

Tom is really riding out of his skin at the moment. He doens't give tips these days...everything just "has a chance"...typical.

Seriously though, Peter, that was brilliant, top tipster!!!!

Stick with this system for definite.

Cheers Darren. I definitely will now. My biggest priced winner.

fade2black

Think I'll unban Finnpark to enjoy that one.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Think I'll unban Finnpark to enjoy that one.

Haha. Do it!

Sizzler

Savage 50/1 !!!!

Karawana got a place in the last but I think I might do a sneaky small each way double on his last 2 runners, Ballette and Rhythm n Blues

fade2black

Jonesy celebrates his big winner

http://www.dancesisterdance.com/myvid/index.php?v=334d3bd358fd

Sizzler

Class!

scojones

Haha, you know me too well! If only I could dance like that!

wb

50/1...

well done jonsey, thats class tipping there.