Friday

fade2black

Ayr - 2:45

With races like these it's best to save some time and just rule out those who have shown no form on soft ground. In this race, that rules out quite a few horses. Two against the field though, are Matty Tun and Orphan. The first mentioned relishes soft ground and seems to be coming nicely to the boil this after after some decent near placed efforts. Runs off a rating of 77 today and his last win came off a mark of 81 so a big run would certainly not come as a shock. Orphan is one that could well go off at a massive price but there are a couple of titbits in his form that suggests a big run could be in the offing today. First off, he's got a rating of 75 and has won off 77 in a better race than todays. More relevant for me though was the form of his last race when he finished 6 lengths behind vanadium. Horses finishing well behind him that day include Paris Bell and Sir Nod who have come out and run well since. In a very trappy race, these are just two who would have big shouts today.

More to come.

fade2black

Ayr 3:55

Again I have to look at the ground in this one. The favourite is currently Alzera but that one had every chance of winning last time when 7-4 favourite. The ground that day was softish and with all his best form on good ground it's very possible that this is not the kind of ground that he acts on. It's even softer that day so I think he's opposable. The horse that beat him last time is Abbey Road, who I expected to go on and win again but was found wanting in a higher grade. In saying all that, the form is decent enough but my reservations remain about the ground. The one I prefer is We'll Confer for Kevin Ryan. As well as some highly progressive form this one just loves the soft ground and he's one of only a very small few in this race who you can say that about.

masterK

fade2black wrote:

Ayr - 2:45

With races like these it's best to save some time and just rule out those who have shown no form on soft ground. In this race, that rules out quite a few horses. Two against the field though, are Matty Tun and Orphan. The first mentioned relishes soft ground and seems to be coming nicely to the boil this after after some decent near placed efforts. Runs off a rating of 77 today and his last win came off a mark of 81 so a big run would certainly not come as a shock. Orphan is one that could well go off at a massive price but there are a couple of titbits in his form that suggests a big run could be in the offing today. First off, he's got a rating of 75 and has won off 77 in a better race than todays. More relevant for me though was the form of his last race when he finished 6 lengths behind vanadium. Horses finishing well behind him that day include Paris Bell and Sir Nod who have come out and run well since. In a very trappy race, these are just two who would have big shouts today.

More to come.

Historically at Ayr you want to be drawn either very high or very low but not in the middle. Yesterday's evidence suggests very high is the place to be. Of the horses drawn very high today there is Blackheath, Dizzy in the head and Oranmore castle filling the top 3 stalls, none of whom I can see winning. That leaves Sea Salt in box 19 as the most likely winner by my reckoning. You really want improving 3 year olds on your side at this time of the year. He already proven on the ground and over the distance.

Just in case low numbers turn out to be at an advantage I'll have a saver on Bo McGinty.

masterK

3:45 Newbury

I'm quite happy to take favourite Blue Monday on with Tam Lin, although Blue Monday is an admirable sort who rarely runs a bad race I find he can be fairly one paced. Tam Lin on the other hand is another progressive 3 year old (see above post) who has done nothing but improve and gets a handly weight concession from the older horses. He's also 3 from 3 with Ryan Moore on board.

5:55 Newbury

Bauer is yet another improving 3 year old who will have no problem with ground or distance. Has beaten some decent yardsticks this season and interestingly Frankie Dettori takes the ride today. I reckon there's still a lot of improvement to come from him.

dvdfan

fade2black wrote:

Ayr 3:55

Again I have to look at the ground in this one. The favourite is currently Alzera but that one had every chance of winning last time when 7-4 favourite. The ground that day was softish and with all his best form on good ground it's very possible that this is not the kind of ground that he acts on. It's even softer that day so I think he's opposable. The horse that beat him last time is Abbey Road, who I expected to go on and win again but was found wanting in a higher grade. In saying all that, the form is decent enough but my reservations remain about the ground. The one I prefer is We'll Confer for Kevin Ryan. As well as some highly progressive form this one just loves the soft ground and he's one of only a very small few in this race who you can say that about.

I got a tip for Southandwest in this one, it came through the grapevine so to speak but was supposed to have originated from the owner who was very confident but i wouldnt be too confident as hes drifting in price now but taught id just pass the info along.

Nalz

Ayr 4:30
http://www.irish-racing.com/v4card002200609151630.htm

gonna have a fiver each way on Balakerif at 25/1. the softer ground should suit, low in the weights...hopeful to be in first 4. worth a pop IMO

Keyzer

Ayr 4.30 Burning Incense
Ayr 4.30 Commando Scott

plonk

Got 2 tips for southandwest ayr 3.55 and burning incense 4.30 ayr I put a 20 double on them so hopefully they will come in

Bluetonic

I've had a bit of word for Talkingtonbates in the 4.40 in Kilbeggan. Barry Geraghty is on board today, the second time he's ridden him, the other time being riding him to a 2nd place finish in Bellewstown 8 weeks ago in a handicap hurdle over 2m 4f. 2m 6f is the trip today in a Maiden Hurdle. The source is to be well respected based in past performance. For the record I won't be having anything substancial on it, just something to quell my curiosity. Should open around 7s or 8s, obvious each way value.


2nd @ 6s.