Hurricane Helene (Eight)

billy the squid

just declared...

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.5 N...23.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/121431.shtml

NHC Forecast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0806W5+gif/144924W_sm.gif

All models map
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif (availible shortly)

Snowbie

Now 35mph,moving west but will encounter west winds slowing down development but look likely to become Helene by tomorrow.

billy the squid

No change in intensification with TD08, have noticed a slight WSW movement in direction which is a little odd. I wonder where these things go if they cross the equator. Do they turn north again or do they keep going south?

Snowbie

Have never heard of hurricanes at the equator as it seems the Doldrum winds do be more favourable for conditions to be perfect for development.
I think that air might be too dry and anything that does enter into the area around the equator out at sea wont have a chance.
Its only at the tropics zones that they develop from waves and into depresions but not lower.I may be wrong.Have never heard of them turning south,but did a hurricane hit Brazil a few years back?Have a distant faint memory of one.

billy the squid

RE Brazillian Hurricane
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/media/spotlight/brazil_hurricane.html

As for TD08, seems slow to get underway. Would have expected a named storm by now. I think however as the latest advisory said, that it will happen over night as it is a little better organised.

Snowbie

billy the squid wrote:

RE Brazillian Hurricane
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/media/spotlight/brazil_hurricane.html

As for TD08, seems slow to get underway. Would have expected a named storm by now. I think however as the latest advisory said, that it will happen over night as it is a little better organised.

Ah bless me memory about the Brazillian Hurricane.Cheers for the link Billy.:)

Helene should be born overnight.

billy the squid

Snowbie wrote:

Ah bless me memory about the Brazillian Hurricane.Cheers for the link Billy.:)

Helene should be born overnight.

just for ****s and giggles i made this up. Track of Caterina, as it was called. Am baffled why they called it that, if it was that unusual we would have heard of an A or a B storm.

billy the squid

TS Helene going in a straight line more-or-less all day, but it seems to be turning now.

very slow to develop. another fish.

Snowbie

Be close to Bermuda but maybe east of it.

billy the squid

I'd also go for east of Bermuda. At least it is moving somewhere which is more than I can say for Gordon.

billy the squid

The only development of note with regard to Helene is that it has become the second category 3 hurricane of the season. Other than that it is just going to be yet another fish in this very fishy hurricane season.

Meanwhile 93LINVEST formed to the north east of Bermuda.

darkman2

Check out the fax:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

billy the squid

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif
Tropical storm warning has been issued for Fantasy Island.

boardsdotie

billy the squid wrote:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif
Tropical storm warning has been issued for Fantasy Island.

Gordon is dead For (SW anyway)... Long live helene

Looking pretty extreme :eek:

BigCon

Seems to be heading in our direction so far:

Danno

How come these ex hurricanes are affecting us more this year than *since I remember*

billy the squid

A fair few of them came our way last year too. although none were as severe as Gordon was. Ophelia affeced parts of scotland though.

That is very odd. Yesterday that was at 75mph winds now it is at 90mph. and for such a high latitude too.

fatherdougalmag

The past two advisories have put Helene further and further south (WRT Ireland's west coast) so it suggests they (the models) don't know where it's going. If this trend keeps up, Helene will just dissapate. GFS certainly doesn't have much hope for it.

MetLuver

Hi I just joined.Been following gordon thanks to this forum.
She does look pretty pathetic on arrival doesnt she!
At bout 600mls she looks quite a storm strange how she dies so quickly

billy the squid

Won't know what is happening until munday at least. Helene's hurricane field is three times the size of Gordon's though. Gordon hurricane field had a radius of 40 miles, Helene's has a radius of 130 miles.

Snowbie

MetLuver wrote:

Hi I just joined.Been following gordon thanks to this forum.
She does look pretty pathetic on arrival doesnt she!
At bout 600mls she looks quite a storm strange how she dies so quickly

Welcome

billy the squid

Indeed welcome metluver

one to watch. 96LINVEST just west of the Cape Verde islands.

Tillie

Hi guys!!! New on here too! I've been keeping an eye on Helene over the past couple of days and notice that initially she was looking to skim the north west coast however she looks set to hit us full on now. Having said that I think she'll have well lost her hurricane status by then and will probably just be strong to gale force winds.

chat again!!

Snowbie

Tillie wrote:

Hi guys!!! New on here too! I've been keeping an eye on Helene over the past couple of days and notice that initially she was looking to skim the north west coast however she looks set to hit us full on now. Having said that I think she'll have well lost her hurricane status by then and will probably just be strong to gale force winds.

chat again!!

Double welcome

Big Tone

Thanks to the cooler north Atlantic waters there's not enough heat there to keep Helene at hurricane status. Its like for example if you have a saucepan of water on the oven, the more you turn up the heat the more violent it becomes ie the waters in the gulf of mexico, turn down the heat ie north atlantic, and you lose the volatility. These hurricanes feed off the heat which is why we have little to ever worry about.

Snowbie

True but its rains are the cause for concern on this island.
Wind or maybe stormy but the rain causes the pain.Look at the west over the last few days.

Wertz

Danno wrote:

How come these ex hurricanes are affecting us more this year than *since I remember*

Looks like the el nino this year is pushing a lot of things in a funny easterly pattern....look at the last couple of E. pacific hurricanes that made early landfall in W Mexico, with one even managing to traverse a lot of the ways across to texas.
Look at how many of the active atlantic basin storms have taken an early turn NW and N and then eventually heading east.
Look too at just how many high category storms have spawned in the central pacific....soem awful warm water out there.
Should be an interesting winter...

SpitfireIV

Wertz wrote:

Should be an interesting winter...

Interesting in a good way....ie snow/cold wise? Or interesting as in more storms etc? What was winter like in Ireland the last time El Nino was present in 93/94 (I think)?

Hal1

NHC has now classed helene as an extratropical cyclone. Its 955 WNW of the azores islands and moving NE at about 33kph with windspeeds of 110kph, winds extending 430 miles. Heading towards the british isles. :eek: Thats the last NHC advisory on helene.

billy the squid

I am just guessing here, but having looked at various charts I think that Helene's low pressure centre will fill before it reaches us, if it reaches us, some models have it sitting in the atlantic and dissapating.

Snowbie

Helene is dead.New Thread opened on Helene remnants.

EDIT: RE: Billy

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054995043

Start discussion on there.