Special hand advice

cardshark202

This is taken from the poker player magazine and its website. This is world-class advice from 2-time bracelet winner scott fischman. Enjoy

The situation
Mandalay Bay: $1,500 buy-in; 300 entrants; 3000 starting chips

Scott's hand
9♣ - 8♦

Second level, blinds 50-100, and I have 11,000 chips. I limp in with 9-8 off-suit in middle position. The player on the button has 4500 and limps in. Small blind completes, and the big blind checks.

Both blinds have about 2500 each. The fl op comes 6♦ -10♦ -7♣, giving me the nuts. The blinds check. I bet 200 into a pot of 400. The player on the button calls. The small blind folds, while the big blind hesitates, looking confused, and finally decides to call. The turn card is 9♠ . At this point the big blind pushes all-in for 2300. The pot size was 1000. It’s my turn to act with 2300 to call and one player behind me with 4300. What do I do?

The answer

I actually folded the hand. At this point I'm thinking I'm beaten by J-8, which is unlikely for either of my opponents to hold, but possible. Given the big blind's reaction before his call on the flop, I'm fairly certain he has some sort of weakish draw, which could definately include J-8, because he could have had a gutshot. However, I'm ruling out J-8 because he pushed all-in, and I don't think he'd do that with the nuts.

So what do I put him on? In my mind, the most common options are 6-8 or 7-8 giving him a pair on the flop with a gutshot. Two-pair is also fairly likely, 7-9 or 9-10. His push on the turn fits this because its a scary board and there's a flush draw out there.

So my conclusion is that most of the time, he has the same hand as me, some of the time he has two-pair, and rarely he has me beat. It's 2300 for me to call and there's still one more person to act and I'm not sure what I put him on. It's possible he has a flush draw, a set or possibly J-8. I'm currently sitting on a stack of 11k and I've got huge control of the table. For that reason, I don't really want to call an additional 2300 (with the possibility of the player behind me pushing all-in for another 2000) in a situation where, most of the time, the best scenario is a chop of 1000.

I fold, the player behind me folds and the big blind doesn't show. On the break I ask him what he had and he tells me he had an 8, giving him the same hand as me. I was happy with my decision to fold and it shows that even though you might be almost certain you have the best hand, you don't have to call. The size of your stack and your risk vs reward makes this a spot where folding is definately the best thing to do.

Hectorjelly

What a chump.

MrPillowTalk

lol surely he is taking the piste

staringelf

hang on a minute. i think fischman is a tool, in fact i dislike him more than any other pro player with the possible exception of humberto brenes, but his decision to fold and the reasoning behind it are actually quite sound.

in all likelihood ( actually definately unless the guy who moved all in is the biggest fish in the world) he is at best chopping this pot and at worst losing up to 4500 or so. he has only invested 300 chips and the guy who moved all in has at least an 8, if not J8. never mind the guy behind him still to act.

as he said he has 11k in chips and is bullying the table and likely increasing his stack bit by bit at little risk and outplaying his oppenents postflop. why should he call here and risk dropping to 6 or 7k? i think his analysis is spot on.

doesn't make him any less of a tool though. anybody who associates with that scumbag dutch boyd is a crap human being.

can someone who thinks my analysis is wrong explain why? i'm genuinely interested to hear the arguments for calling.

NickyOD

I see plenty of stupid palyers make the same bet panicing because they slowplayed 2 pair or a set.

cardshark202

staringelf wrote:

hang on a minute. i think fischman is a tool, in fact i dislike him more than any other pro player with the possible exception of humberto brenes, but his decision to fold and the reasoning behind it are actually quite sound.

in all likelihood ( actually definately unless the guy who moved all in is the biggest fish in the world) he is at best chopping this pot and at worst losing up to 4500 or so. he has only invested 300 chips and the guy who moved all in has at least an 8, if not J8. never mind the guy behind him still to act.

as he said he has 11k in chips and is bullying the table and likely increasing his stack bit by bit at little risk and outplaying his oppenents postflop. why should he call here and risk dropping to 6 or 7k? i think his analysis is spot on.

doesn't make him any less of a tool though. anybody who associates with that scumbag dutch boyd is a crap human being.

can someone who thinks my analysis is wrong explain why? i'm genuinely interested to hear the arguments for calling.

Look back at the range of hands he puts the guy on.

NickyOD

cardshark202 wrote:

Look back at the range of hands he puts the guy on.

lol. He actually states 2 pair is in the guys range.

OwenHargreaves

WCOOP last year on pokerstars, 1k buy-in event. 1000+ field, down to about 250 i think it was.... i have KK UTG +3 6k chips blinds still low with the long clock (100/200 ante 25) UTG (9k) raises to 800, Fischman (Emptyseat88 - 7.5k) smooth calls, i didnt want to get too tricky with the hand so i pushed AI. Folded to initial raiser who folds, Fischman insta-calls me. Not a moments thought. Immediately im thinking '**** uh oh'. Then i see his hand and im more angry and nervous than worried - Ah 10h. Insta-call!!!! Effectively for both our games.

flop 10x 8h 6h and i put my hand over the screen. Heard the ping and "you have finished in blah blah place". I hung around for a few minutes abusing the genius only to be told by the rail "hey you can go tell your friends a 2-time bracelet winner knocked you out". Needless to say that didnt happen. He certainly has an apt surname.

gerry87

staringelf wrote:

hang on a minute. i think fischman is a tool, in fact i dislike him more than any other pro player with the possible exception of humberto brenes

Whats wrong with humberto? I loved his run up all in on some WPT i think it was.

Atlas_IRL

no way he can fold this, if he chops then so what he'll get some small dead money as well + maybe half the other persons stack

if he's afraid someone has j8 and takes the pot down sure he still has a lot of chips and if he's running all over the table he can still do this....

staringelf

cardshark202 wrote:

Look back at the range of hands he puts the guy on.

ok yeah, sure he could have 2 pair or a set but he more than likely has the 8 or worse, J8. its a horrible horrible bet if he has 2 pair and not much better if he has a set. the risk > reward imo, especially since he has control of the table and only has 300 in the pot. if this player put all his chips in with 2 pair or a set on that board there's gonna be a much better chance to bust him later on. sorry guys, i'm still unconvinced.

to gerry87 - wait until you watch the wsop 06 coverage and you'll see why humberto brenes is so disliked. or check out i think its nickys thread about dimitri nobles - i think theres some humberto stuff in there

Gholimoli

staringelf wrote:

ok yeah, sure he could have 2 pair or a set but he more than likely has the 8 or worse, J8. its a horrible horrible bet if he has 2 pair and not much better if he has a set. the risk > reward imo, especially since he has control of the table and only has 300 in the pot. if this player put all his chips in with 2 pair or a set on that board there's gonna be a much better chance to bust him later on. sorry guys, i'm still unconvinced.

to gerry87 - wait until you watch the wsop 06 coverage and you'll see why humberto brenes is so disliked. or check out i think its nickys thread about dimitri nobles - i think theres some humberto stuff in there

please please please for the love of god tell me your joking with this?

staringelf

Gholimoli wrote:

please please please for the love of god tell me your joking with this?

LOL, i'm not. seriously. if he's running over the table and picking up pots uncontested which he says he is then there's no need to call this. he has a measly 300 in the pot. sure yer man might have 2 pair or a set but i'd say at least 80% of the time he's chopping this for 500 chips and the possibility one of them has J8 means i don't mind the fold. maybe that makes me a weak tight nit but i can definately understand his reasoning for folding and i don't think its an instacall. far from it.

i knew i'd get flamed for this.

Gholimoli

staringelf wrote:

LOL, i'm not. seriously. if he's running over the table and picking up pots uncontested which he says he is then there's no need to call this. he has a measly 300 in the pot. sure yer man might have 2 pair or a set but i'd say at least 80% of the time he's chopping this for 500 chips and the possibility one of them has J8 means i don't mind the fold. maybe that makes me a weak tight nit but i can definately understand his reasoning for folding and i don't think its an instacall. far from it.

i knew i'd get flamed for this.

your totally right.

staringelf

Gholimoli wrote:

your totally right.

ouch

MrPillowTalk

anyone who thinks a fold is the right move here is cordially invited to any game i ever play for the running over of your life lol.

anyone who even considers a fold here is as big as fish as there is.

cardshark202

MrPillowTalk wrote:

anyone who thinks a fold is the right move here is cordially invited to any game i ever play for the running over of your life lol.

anyone who even considers a fold here is as big as fish as there is.

As big as this?

NickyOD

Fischman said he rules out J-8 because he pushed all in, so basically what he's saying is he either definietly has the best hand or is splitting the pot. He says 2 pair is in the guys range so we have to assume a set is also possible. I think we can eliminate the button from the hand because of his quick call on the flop. It's likley he was just flushing or has 1 pair. The only way the button is staying in the hand is if he has pocket 8s.

So given the villains range (by Fishman's own admittance) this is how his hand rates against the villains. Notice that the villain only wins the hand outright 5% of the time

Board: 6h Th 7c 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.9575 % 33.20% 30.76% { 9h8c }
Hand 2: 36.0425 % 05.29% 30.76% { 99-66, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

Nice fold. WP.

staringelf

NickyOD wrote:

Fischman said he rules out J-8 because he pushed all in, so basically what he's saying is he either definietly has the best hand or is splitting the pot. He says 2 pair is in the guys range so we have to assume a set is also possible. I think we can eliminate the button from the hand because of his quick call on the flop. It's likley he was just flushing or has 1 pair. The only way the button is staying in the hand is if he has pocket 8s.

So given the villains range (by Fishman's own admittance) this is how his hand rates against the villains. Notice that the villain only wins the hand outright 5% of the time

Board: 6h Th 7c 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.9575 % 33.20% 30.76% { 9h8c }
Hand 2: 36.0425 % 05.29% 30.76% { 99-66, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

Nice fold. WP.

he doesn't rule out j8, he says its unlikely. regardless, say the villain does have 2 pair or a set. what fischman is saying is is it worth the risk of the villain sucking out with a set when the board pairs (about 33% or so) for only 500 chips? is it worth dropping to 6k and losing a lot of control of the table? he is picking up chips easily at the minute by his own admission. he feels that he can continue to do so with much less risk than he is currently faced with should he call an all in. your math says it is a +EV call but the math here has its flaws in that it doesn't take into account all the factors involved in the game (such as player aggression, image, etc)

its totally a risk vs reward situation and in a case like this the math alone shouldn't be the only deciding factor.

to give you an example, how many times have you folded your sb to the super shortstack's bb for only a couple more chips when you're 4 handed in a sng, and you've got a monster stack. you just want to keep the short stack alive so you can continue to rob the huge blinds from the other 2 medium stacks. the math says its a +EV move to complete your sb but you know the future EV you gain is greater if you fold and keep him alive.

the fischman situation is a similar type of concept. sometimes there's more involved than whether or not it is +EV at that moment

bohsman

staringelf wrote:

he doesn't rule out j8, he says its unlikely. regardless, say the villain does have 2 pair or a set. what fischman is saying is is it worth the risk of the villain sucking out with a set when the board pairs (about 33% or so) for only 500 chips? is it worth dropping to 6k and losing a lot of control of the table? he is picking up chips easily at the minute by his own admission. he feels that he can continue to do so with much less risk than he is currently faced with should he call an all in. your math says it is a +EV call but the math here has its flaws in that it doesn't take into account all the factors involved in the game (such as player aggression, image, etc)

Not sure where you're getting 33% from, if he has him on a set/2pair the board pairs 20% of the time with 2pair only filling 1 in 12.

fuzzbox

staringelf wrote:

what fischman is saying is is it worth the risk of the villain sucking out with a set when the board pairs (about 33% or so) for only 500 chips? i

When villain goes all in for 2300, the pot contains 3300. If villain has the range described by Nicky, then, if we call, we have an equity of :

66% of 5600 = 3734

Since we have to call 2300, our net gain is 3734 - 2300 = 1434 ... on AVERAGE.

Since we have a stack of 11000, and calling here would give us +1434 on average - we would increase our stack by 13% by calling (on average).

Only if villain has an 8 do we receive 500 chips back for our call, however, if villain has a set or two pair, then we get a lot more than 500 chips (and this is where we accept the risk of villain sucking out).

You dont have both at the same time - either you split the pot (thus getting 500 chips), OR you have a big edge in a big pot.

PS - with 4 cards on the board - a set will suck out approx 20% of the time, and two pair about 10%. (not 33% as you stated)

NickyOD

staringelf wrote:

he doesn't rule out j8, he says its unlikely.

You didn't read it very carefully did you.

"However, I'm ruling out J-8 because he pushed all-in, and I don't think he'd do that with the nuts."

RoundTower

this fold would be fine if he said "the guy was an absolute rock and I thought a lot of the time he would need 8x at an absolute minimum here, and often J8". (I looked again and it turns out he cant be freerolled as he has the 8d). The way he puts it he sounsd like an idiot.