Turn value and pot control - Where is the line?

pok3rplaya

I used to bet lots of turn cards and get minraised on the turn too much. Then I learned about pot control and started checking far too many turns. I realised that this was causing me problems too so now I'm trying to discover a happy medium.

So, here's a spot where the flop is pretty draw heavy, yet I have a hand which is rather vulnerable. I'm stuck between betting and checking, both options having pros and cons.

Should I bet or check?
If I should bet, how much?
Should I be more likely to check the turn if I am OOP?
How does this change if my hand is A J
How does this change if my hand is A A

Assume I have no reads.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($118.40)
BB ($90.53)
UTG ($197.45)
MP ($213.75)
Hero ($191)
Button ($75.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T, J. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) 7, J, 4(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16, UTG calls $16.

Turn: ($55) 5(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ??

cardshark202

I would bet about 40 here and probably fold to a raise, and if called I would check behind on the river. If the river is a blank I may call a bet.

EDIT: With AJ I will bet the river more often, and call the river more often. With AA, I will again bet with a higher frequency on the turn and river, as well as call more often.

Bandana boy

I tend to check here
if checked to me on river i lead for half pot and i will call some bets on river

Gholimoli

Bandana boy wrote:

I tend to check here
if checked to me on river i lead for half pot and i will call some bets on river

i cant really see suits in work so i cant comment on the hand but
why would you lead on the river if checked to?

pok3rplaya

Gholimoli wrote:

i cant really see suits in work so i cant comment on the hand but
why would you lead on the river if checked to?

the 4 and 7 are diamonds. Turn doesn't complete the flush. Our hands are all offsuit.

Bandana boy

I would lead for half pot as a mixture of a value bet with tp so under pps etc can call but also and mainly because if i raised pre with AK here i would play the hand similarly AND i see no value in letting dude know i raised with jt here unless he wants to give me some money for this info
I am of course assuming 3 checks would have my hand ahead most of the time here

valor

Any stats on the opponent?

IN general im betting the turn here 100% with both hands for ~40

Gholimoli

Ok this is just my opinion on the matter and I could be very off but im sure I will get corrected if I am.
With JT here you are possibly facing a flush draw that can out draw you plus two over cards for example if he has (KdQd).
In this case you are facing a possible 15 outs that can outdraw you. I think on the turn the odds against that are 3:1 .
Assuming im correct with the above odds then you have to make sure you don’t give him sufficient odds to draw which means making sure he gets less then 3:1 from the pot.
With 55 in the pot if you bet 30 then your giving him 2.8:1 which is close enough.
If you bet 40 then your offering 2.3:1.
If you had AA then your really looking at flush to outdraw you so your really looking at 9 outs which is I think about 4:1 on the turn.
So if you bet anything that offers less than that then you should be ok.
What this suggests is bet more when your hand is more vulnerable to outdraws and less when its not.
Again I could be missing something here and I wait for others to comment.

spectre

Bandana boy wrote:

I would lead for half pot as a mixture of a value bet with tp so under pps etc can call but also and mainly because if i raised pre with AK here i would play the hand similarly AND i see no value in letting dude know i raised with jt here unless he wants to give me some money for this info
I am of course assuming 3 checks would have my hand ahead most of the time here

With no reads, betting the river is bad imo. Villain has played the hand very passively. You will often get check-called by KJ and QJ and AJ if villain is very passive.

If you think villain would open the flop betting with a J, you can be more comfortable with betting for value on the river, like you say, he may call with a smaller pair.

With AJ, I always value bet the river if checked to.

Bandana boy

Gholimoli wrote:

Ok this is just my opinion on the matter and I could be very off but im sure I will get corrected if I am.
With JT here you are possibly facing a flush draw that can out draw you plus two over cards for example if he has (KdQd).
In this case you are facing a possible 15 outs that can outdraw you. I think on the turn the odds against that are 3:1 .
Assuming im correct with the above odds then you have to make sure you don’t give him sufficient odds to draw which means making sure he gets less then 3:1 from the pot.
With 55 in the pot if you bet 30 then your giving him 2.8:1 which is close enough.
If you bet 40 then your offering 2.3:1.
If you had AA then your really looking at flush to outdraw you so your really looking at 9 outs which is I think about 4:1 on the turn.
So if you bet anything that offers less than that then you should be ok.
What this suggests is bet more when your hand is more vulnerable to outdraws and less when its not.
Again I could be missing something here and I wait for others to comment.

i think your logic here is fine G man except i think his range to call you on flop is a lot bigger than 2 overcards and fd(i could also be wrong here)

I think we add 2nd pair, pp and air in here that we are ahead of and two pair ,sets and unlikely but possible op that we are behind

I know i will often check raise the turn here with a draw or any of those ahead hands and air which we can never really call

I believe if he checks the river we are pretty comftorably ahead of his 2nd pair and PP and will likely get paid and we also can induce bluffing although this is not always easy to call

I think our holding is too marginal to be sure we are outpricing the draws if we get called on turn and now we have bloated the pot enough for missed flush draws to bluff us and hands that outflopped us to play passively and let us hang ourselves

pok3rplaya

So how weak does our hand have to be before checking becomes correct? What if I turn the 4d into the Qd on the flop?

Hectorjelly

I think betting with JTo on the turn is very bad against most opponents, unless you have a specific read that your opponent is on a draw. Checking the turn and always calling a bet on a blank river is much more profitable.

Good No limit hold em is about playing big pots with hands, JTo here is not a big hand and you will win more in the long run if you tend to play medium sized pots with it.

AJ and AA are different because there are much more hands you beat than can call you.

boba_fett3099

I posted a hand exactly like this about three days ago called "controlling pot size on a draw heavy board" !!! nice to see people replying to a post by a newbie...oh wait they didnt.

Hectorjelly

boba_fett3099 wrote:

I posted a hand exactly like this about three days ago called "controlling pot size on a draw heavy board" !!! nice to see people replying to a post by a newbie...oh wait they didnt.

I read that thread and almost commented. I thought the stacks were too shallow for pot control to be worth considering. You should of pushed the turn. - once the pot gets bigger than your stack you must do everything to protect it.

boba_fett3099

Hectorjelly wrote:

I read that thread and almost commented. I thought the stacks were too shallow for pot control to be worth considering. You should of pushed the turn. - once the pot gets bigger than your stack you must do everything to protect it.

Yeah i think i should have pushed, turns out he had AhJh so he was freerolling and hit his flush on the river! Cheers HJ.

pok3rplaya

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think betting with JTo on the turn is very bad against most opponents, unless you have a specific read that your opponent is on a draw. Checking the turn and always calling a bet on a blank river is much more profitable.

Good No limit hold em is about playing big pots with hands, JTo here is not a big hand and you will win more in the long run if you tend to play medium sized pots with it.

AJ and AA are different because there are much more hands you beat than can call you.

So you feel we should be checking against all but the biggest of fish?

What factors are you taking into consideration when deciding whether or not to call a half pot bet on a diamond river?

Hectorjelly

pok3rplaya wrote:

So you feel we should be checking against all but the biggest of fish?

What factors are you taking into consideration when deciding whether or not to call a half pot bet on a diamond river?

On a diamond river we dont really beat much, he might have 88 or some other pair but usually im folding.

If I bet the turn there against anyone who is anyway tight it would be with the intention of bluffing someone off a better hand.