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Hurricane Florence

  • 04-09-2006 9:38am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭


    Tropical depression six has formed out in the tropical mid atlantic well away from land.
    This is a huge depression and is forecast to to be become TS Florence today.
    Its heading in a NW direction and should miss the lesser antilles and heading (ATM) towards bahamas.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    Just heard about this and having a look at it now. will have map and links shortly, probably after Advisory 6 comes out.

    Will make interesting viewing, however I forsee either a bermuda hit or a fish spinner. Can't see it hitting mainland US personally.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    As promised, Map for TD 06. And it is still a Tropical Depression despite the promise of it being upgraded.

    Storm0606.jpg

    NHC Advisory
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/050246.shtml

    NHC Forcast Model Map
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/024625W_sm.gif

    All Models
    http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    It is expected to become WNW and then westerly as a high pressure is building down from the North diverting this NW course.I say it will become a Bahamas hit alright with Florida on the cards.
    It all depends if it can lose the shear its encountering atm and then strenghten as it is forecasted too.Anyway lets wait for the next advisory.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Upgraded to tropical storm Florence now, seems like its going to go north of the Bahamas
    AL0606W5_sm2.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Yep looks like it will avoid the bahamas now.
    Will it be a fish spinner?
    The carolinas?
    New Yorks overdue Hurricane????:eek:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    we are evil bastards arn't we, we want them all to hit the mainland US :D

    I'm still going for bermuda.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    we are evil bastards arn't we, we want them all to hit the mainland US :D

    I'm still going for bermuda.

    LOL Bill:D

    Will set up bookies.
    OK 3/1 hits Bermuda
    6/1 hits carolinas
    10/1 hits New York
    2/1F, it gulf streams it to Limerick.:p

    Place your bets.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    Snowbie wrote:
    LOL Bill:D

    Will set up bookies.
    OK 3/1 hits Bermuda
    6/1 hits carolinas
    10/1 hits New York
    2/1F, it gulf streams it to Limerick.:p

    Place your bets.

    They still talk about the "night of the big wind" in these parts :D

    back on topic though 91L INVEST close behind Florence.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    But will it develop is another thing.
    If florence does become a hurricane and the new depression follows it wont have much of time to develop as Florence will cool the waters behind it,thats if it takes the same path.But nonetheless if it maintains its westerly movement it will move into favorable conditions as Florence moves NW,while another tropical wave moved off the African coast too.Picking up a bit now as this is the peak month.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    re: Florence

    Track as of the 09Z advisory takes it closer to Bermuda. I will take those 3/1 odds on it hammering bermuda as a hurricane. whether its eye makes landfall is another thing.

    re : 91LINVEST

    Looks like it is not going to make it
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
    SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY
    POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS
    FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

    If it follows Florence then it will more than likely fall apart i think.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Florence the fish spinner.Bermuda a direct hit?
    This system is huge looking at the messed formation it has taken on.
    If it does organise it could be one large storm but i think minimal hurricane status will be reached.One thing is for sure Florence is very reluctant to dissipate from havin being attacked by shear on two sides.

    After all said and done Florence might pay us a visit as a strong mid atlantic storm at the end of next week??????????. as it looks like it will gulf stream it looking at the potential track.NW to N then NE.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    Tropical Storm watch issued for the entire island of Bermuda. and windspeeds now estimated at 65mph. I would imagine that the trop storm watch will be upgraded to a dual hurricane watch/tropical storm warning by sometime tomorrow.

    As for where it goes after that, the NHC model has it remaining at hurricane strength for a long while, if it does make it as far as here it could get a little wet and windy here.

    The good people of Bermuda can't seem to throw together a local web radio stream therefore I cannot give any links to local media. They all have the same ISP which has gone tits up.

    EDIT > Acftualy a hurrifcane watch issued for Bermuda

    map updated


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 879 ✭✭✭sirpsycho


    windspeeds 70mph now and hurricane watch issued in bermuda. TS force winds extending 354miles!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    A hurricane warning will likely be issued for Bermuda before the end of the day. After Bermuda I cannot imagine it staying at hurricane strength much longer than that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    http://66.55.123.26/home/homeJ.html
    Webcam Bermuda Harbour Fort George.

    Update...
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 100554
    TCPAT1
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
    200 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

    ...FLORENCE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...

    A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
    BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
    HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

    Hurricane Florence as of 06Z intermediary advisory.
    HURRICANE FLORENCE is a threat to Bermuda.
    Current Position: 27.1N 65.2W approx. 313 nm S of Bermuda
    Recent Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 11 kt
    Central Pressure: 981 mb / 28.96 in
    Max Sustained Winds: 65kt gusts 75kt
    Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:
    Date: 12 pm Mon, Sep 11, 2006
    Distance: 20 nm to the W
    http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?StormID=227&Num=265

    Radar - Bermuda
    http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Rapid intensification is likely for the next 24-36 hours and the storm
    is likely to hit CAT 3 levels on passing Bermuda:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Florence may not be a Hurricane for long as there is dry air to its east now be sucked into the storm.This will slow/halt its intensification and will lead to it be no bigger than CAT2.
    But the way this system has fogged off shear in its early days i wouldnt be surprised if it made CAT2 today some time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    There was a 93LINVEST there earlier today but it seems to be gone now, oh well.

    Anyway With 90mph winds, Florence is starting to hammer Bermuda I would imagine. The webcams don't work any more so one can assume that parts of the island have lost power.

    @Weathercheck: I would imagine that at most it would be a Cat 2 unless it strengthens exponentially like some of them did last year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    That wave following Florence is expected to become a TD later.It is not far off the Northern Antilles.It is moving into favourable conditions to develop.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    Snowbie wrote:
    That wave following Florence is expected to become a TD later.It is not far off the Northern Antilles.It is moving into favourable conditions to develop.

    I see, when i had seen that it was taken down from the FMNOC site, I had assumed that it had discipated.

    EDIT: 93LINVEST is back as TD07.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    024626.gif

    What are the odds of this bringing us more than just rain?

    This says 10pc chance of it making it to our shores. although we have seen such things before.

    Also notice after vince last year, they have changed the limits of their map software, they now include europe in their calculations where as last year the probability projection would end abruptly west of Europe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    The USNHC issued its last advisory at 10 o clock on Florence, however the Canadian hurricane centre is still issuing advisories. Their next one will be at 10.30am.

    When last checked Florence was becoming extratropical and had max sustained winds of 75mph.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    024626.gif

    What are the odds of this bringing us more than just rain?

    This says 10pc chance of it making it to our shores. although we have seen such things before.

    Also notice after vince last year, they have changed the limits of their map software, they now include europe in their calculations where as last year the probability projection would end abruptly west of Europe.
    Isnt that actually the probablity of the strong winds reaching us as a "tropical storm"
    The storm though barocylinic by then looks likely to reach Ireland given its current track.
    It will manifest itself in the usual wet and windy conditions,but shouldnt be anything spectacular unless it deepens in the North Atlantic,which is likely but not by a whole lot maybe-we shall see.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    If it does reach our shores,we can expect a load of rain and very muggy conditions,windy but not stormy.Too early to tell the track but i still think Billy will be washed out first as i predicted.:D :D:p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    Another hurrican charley yep, 20 years on. :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    EX Florence giving Newfoundland a belting

    CHC reporting a house completely destroyed in Newfoundland. Winds estimated at 100kmph(62mph)

    pressure at 970mb


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