Hurricane Florence

Snowbie

Tropical depression six has formed out in the tropical mid atlantic well away from land.
This is a huge depression and is forecast to to be become TS Florence today.
Its heading in a NW direction and should miss the lesser antilles and heading (ATM) towards bahamas.

billy the squid

Just heard about this and having a look at it now. will have map and links shortly, probably after Advisory 6 comes out.

Will make interesting viewing, however I forsee either a bermuda hit or a fish spinner. Can't see it hitting mainland US personally.

billy the squid

As promised, Map for TD 06. And it is still a Tropical Depression despite the promise of it being upgraded.



NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/050246.shtml

NHC Forcast Model Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/024625W_sm.gif

All Models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

Snowbie

It is expected to become WNW and then westerly as a high pressure is building down from the North diverting this NW course.I say it will become a Bahamas hit alright with Florida on the cards.
It all depends if it can lose the shear its encountering atm and then strenghten as it is forecasted too.Anyway lets wait for the next advisory.

Trogdor

Upgraded to tropical storm Florence now, seems like its going to go north of the Bahamas

Snowbie

Yep looks like it will avoid the bahamas now.
Will it be a fish spinner?
The carolinas?
New Yorks overdue Hurricane????:eek:

billy the squid

we are evil bastards arn't we, we want them all to hit the mainland US

I'm still going for bermuda.

Snowbie

billy the squid wrote:

we are evil bastards arn't we, we want them all to hit the mainland US

I'm still going for bermuda.

LOL Bill:D

Will set up bookies.
OK 3/1 hits Bermuda
6/1 hits carolinas
10/1 hits New York
2/1F, it gulf streams it to Limerick.:p

Place your bets.

billy the squid

Snowbie wrote:

LOL Bill:D

Will set up bookies.
OK 3/1 hits Bermuda
6/1 hits carolinas
10/1 hits New York
2/1F, it gulf streams it to Limerick.:p

Place your bets.

They still talk about the "night of the big wind" in these parts

back on topic though 91L INVEST close behind Florence.

Snowbie

But will it develop is another thing.
If florence does become a hurricane and the new depression follows it wont have much of time to develop as Florence will cool the waters behind it,thats if it takes the same path.But nonetheless if it maintains its westerly movement it will move into favorable conditions as Florence moves NW,while another tropical wave moved off the African coast too.Picking up a bit now as this is the peak month.

billy the squid

re: Florence

Track as of the 09Z advisory takes it closer to Bermuda. I will take those 3/1 odds on it hammering bermuda as a hurricane. whether its eye makes landfall is another thing.

re : 91LINVEST

Looks like it is not going to make it

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY
POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS
FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

If it follows Florence then it will more than likely fall apart i think.

Snowbie

Florence the fish spinner.Bermuda a direct hit?
This system is huge looking at the messed formation it has taken on.
If it does organise it could be one large storm but i think minimal hurricane status will be reached.One thing is for sure Florence is very reluctant to dissipate from havin being attacked by shear on two sides.

After all said and done Florence might pay us a visit as a strong mid atlantic storm at the end of next week??????????. as it looks like it will gulf stream it looking at the potential track.NW to N then NE.

billy the squid

Tropical Storm watch issued for the entire island of Bermuda. and windspeeds now estimated at 65mph. I would imagine that the trop storm watch will be upgraded to a dual hurricane watch/tropical storm warning by sometime tomorrow.

As for where it goes after that, the NHC model has it remaining at hurricane strength for a long while, if it does make it as far as here it could get a little wet and windy here.

The good people of Bermuda can't seem to throw together a local web radio stream therefore I cannot give any links to local media. They all have the same ISP which has gone tits up.

EDIT > Acftualy a hurrifcane watch issued for Bermuda

map updated

sirpsycho

windspeeds 70mph now and hurricane watch issued in bermuda. TS force winds extending 354miles!

billy the squid

A hurricane warning will likely be issued for Bermuda before the end of the day. After Bermuda I cannot imagine it staying at hurricane strength much longer than that.

billy the squid

http://66.55.123.26/home/homeJ.html
Webcam Bermuda Harbour Fort George.

Update...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 100554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
200 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...FLORENCE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

Hurricane Florence as of 06Z intermediary advisory.

HURRICANE FLORENCE is a threat to Bermuda.
Current Position: 27.1N 65.2W approx. 313 nm S of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 11 kt
Central Pressure: 981 mb / 28.96 in
Max Sustained Winds: 65kt gusts 75kt
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:
Date: 12 pm Mon, Sep 11, 2006
Distance: 20 nm to the W

http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?StormID=227&Num=265

Radar - Bermuda
http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

ninebeanrows

Rapid intensification is likely for the next 24-36 hours and the storm
is likely to hit CAT 3 levels on passing Bermuda:)

Snowbie

Florence may not be a Hurricane for long as there is dry air to its east now be sucked into the storm.This will slow/halt its intensification and will lead to it be no bigger than CAT2.
But the way this system has fogged off shear in its early days i wouldnt be surprised if it made CAT2 today some time.

billy the squid

There was a 93LINVEST there earlier today but it seems to be gone now, oh well.

Anyway With 90mph winds, Florence is starting to hammer Bermuda I would imagine. The webcams don't work any more so one can assume that parts of the island have lost power.

@Weathercheck: I would imagine that at most it would be a Cat 2 unless it strengthens exponentially like some of them did last year.

Snowbie

That wave following Florence is expected to become a TD later.It is not far off the Northern Antilles.It is moving into favourable conditions to develop.

billy the squid

Snowbie wrote:

That wave following Florence is expected to become a TD later.It is not far off the Northern Antilles.It is moving into favourable conditions to develop.

I see, when i had seen that it was taken down from the FMNOC site, I had assumed that it had discipated.

EDIT: 93LINVEST is back as TD07.

billy the squid

What are the odds of this bringing us more than just rain?

This says 10pc chance of it making it to our shores. although we have seen such things before.

Also notice after vince last year, they have changed the limits of their map software, they now include europe in their calculations where as last year the probability projection would end abruptly west of Europe.

billy the squid

The USNHC issued its last advisory at 10 o clock on Florence, however the Canadian hurricane centre is still issuing advisories. Their next one will be at 10.30am.

When last checked Florence was becoming extratropical and had max sustained winds of 75mph.

billy the squid

billy the squid wrote:

What are the odds of this bringing us more than just rain?

This says 10pc chance of it making it to our shores. although we have seen such things before.

Also notice after vince last year, they have changed the limits of their map software, they now include europe in their calculations where as last year the probability projection would end abruptly west of Europe.

Isnt that actually the probablity of the strong winds reaching us as a "tropical storm"
The storm though barocylinic by then looks likely to reach Ireland given its current track.
It will manifest itself in the usual wet and windy conditions,but shouldnt be anything spectacular unless it deepens in the North Atlantic,which is likely but not by a whole lot maybe-we shall see.

Snowbie

If it does reach our shores,we can expect a load of rain and very muggy conditions,windy but not stormy.Too early to tell the track but i still think Billy will be washed out first as i predicted.:D

Hal1

Another hurrican charley yep, 20 years on.

billy the squid

EX Florence giving Newfoundland a belting

CHC reporting a house completely destroyed in Newfoundland. Winds estimated at 100kmph(62mph)

pressure at 970mb