Playing AK against a villain who will not fold.

NickyOD

$30+3 on Party. 20 players getting paid and 65 are left. I'm a little below average with 5.8K. Villain has 4.8K.

With blinds 100-200 he over raises preflop from 3rd position to 925. I am 100% certain this is 99-JJ. It's folded to me in the SB with AK.

Now my dilemma here is I am also 100% certain he will not let this hand go preflop. This is true of every moron online who overraises with these hand. However, I'm not afraid to raice as I've no intention of trying to blind into the money. This is one of the reasons why I often hate tournament poker. i.e. being forced into a raice situation with a moron that I am probably a thousand times better than. Anyway. I raise to 2700. hoping that this will look more like a big pair than AK and he might go away but of course he shoves and I call. Moron has 99. I flop a King but he spikes the 9 on the river.

Quetion:

While smooth calling never even enters my head here, its something I see a lot of players do. Can anyone on the forum make a solid argument for smooth caling preflop with AK here? Also how bad is folding preflop in this particular spot?

tacker

push and race.When in rome.................................

staringelf

its kind of a tough one i think. i think folding is the worst of the 3 options simply because your stack is below average. you COULD call and see a flop if you think that he's going all the way even if an A or K hits (and you check to him and let him bluff it). if you think he can get away from 99-JJ post flop then i push. an unfortunate situation but you have to win some coin flips at some stage if you want to cash in these kind of tournaments.

if you had another 3 or 4 thousand chips you could fold and wait for a better spot but since you're below average i think its a push.

ul but i think you played it in the most optimal way possible.

Hitman Actual

If you're so sure of the 99-JJ range, and that you have no folding equity, then I dont think folding is a big mistake at all. Your AK is quite a big dog here (42%-45%). But it's something I never really thought about, because when someone raises, I usually have AQ/AJ (well, maybe AJ) in their range as well. Edit: Also, when someone raises and I have AK, surely a lot of the value of pushing AK comes in the folding equity.

As for calling, I made a call with AK to an over-raise in the IPC, which is the first hand I wrote about in my Day 1 blog post. But the stacks were much deeper (10K at 25/50 blinds) and I really felt that just flat calling and taking a flop was right. The stack sizes are tighter here, so just calling is a tougher decision, but at 25BB left if you call you're not in bad shape at all. I think flat-calling is probably better than raising half your stack as you did, because this guy looks like he's sticking around no matter what.

Maybe you should ask the question of what order people place the different plays in i.e. standard raise; raise AI; flat call; fold.

Edit 2: Raising AI here has a -EV if you have no folding equity, whle folding is zero EV, so surely folding is better than raising AI?

Hitman Actual

staringelf wrote:

I think folding is the worst of the 3 options simply because your stack is below average.

He's below average, but he has 30BBs, i.e. potentially a lot of play left.

staringelf

lenny_leonard wrote:

He's below average, but he has 30BBs, i.e. potentially a lot of play left.

good point. i'm not actually sure what the right play here is now. you can make pretty strong arguments for both folding, calling and pushing. still, my default is to push here and thats probably what most people would do.

breadmonkey

I don't understand. You know you are behind, you know villain won't fold, so why are you getting invovled?

sikes

lenny_leonard wrote:

Edit 2: Raising AI here has a -EV if you have no folding equity, whle folding is zero EV, so surely folding is better than raising AI?

i would think so....

if you have confidence in your read, then smooth calling is prob the best option as opposed to raising. any akq will be a scare card. there are at least 10 scare cards 3 times. 60% chance of one on the flop.

is he good enough to lay it down post flop? i know the type of player your talking about and to be honest its going to be very difficult to bluff a Q rag rag board successfully. however a K,x,x flop is ideal because a lot of the time, you will see them push to a check. I also dont think you will get paid enough on a A board. i think this is a time you can let it go.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Imposter

I'm never raising to 2.7k there. It pot commits you and I can't see anyone with 99-JJ folding that too often. I say call or push. I know the push looks a little big but it gives you a little fold equity (it has too! right?). See 5 cards if you feel your read is good or call to see what the flop brings and try check-raising him if you hit or folding otherwise.

sikes

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Villian will still have approx 3,800 left in his stack if you smooth call. Given the confidence in your read I think that you can call and check / fold if you don't flop an Ace or King. If an Ace or King flops you will know you're ahead, and if not you still have a playable stack when he pushes all in and forces you to fold.

then there are only 4 cards then that we are looking for on the flop, getting only 1.3/1 on the call. also bear in mind that opponent will also see the a/k so it will be difficult to get paid on the A anyway.

calling can only be done if we think we can bluff the villian if a Q comes, and we can get paid by the a/k. but these two points kind of conflict eachother so i think a fold is the correct option.

Hitman Actual

I think with flat-calling, it all comes down to how much money you can make when you do hit. Is this player really going to pay you off an A/K flop? Two times out of three you miss and burn up T925, so the pay-off when you hit that one time has to compensate you for when you miss. Position actually suits you here, as a check-raise may get you his stack when you hit. So if you think villain will pay you off big, then flat-calling looks to be the best option.

30something

This is a clear call by process of elimination. Look at your options:

1. Re-Raise less then All in: Mistake as you're pot committed thus any re-raise must be all-in

2. Re-Raise AI: Mistake as you put him on 99-JJ thus you are behind and you know he won't fold

3. Fold: You can't fold AK pre flop to this size raise unless you put your opponent on AA/KK which you didn't.

4. Call No other option.

In this spot the call would prolly have won the pot as you hit your K on river and are first to act. You would go AI with TPTK and the 99 would have a hard time calling. If you miss the flop you can get away from the hand with 5k behind and the blinds have passed you.

sikes

30something wrote:

3. Fold: You can't fold AK pre flop to this size raise unless you put your opponent on AA/KK which you didn't.

he put him on 99-JJ so we are calling knowing we are behind and need help on the flop. so on the face of it, folding is superior to calling.

RoundTower

I think you are too certain in your "reads". He has AQ sometimes and you should go all in. If you really think he has to have 99-JJ you should fold.

PiperT

NickyOD wrote:

Quetion:

While smooth calling never even enters my head here, its something I see a lot of players do. Can anyone on the forum make a solid argument for smooth caling preflop with AK here? Also how bad is folding preflop in this particular spot?

Why does smooth calling never enter your head in this spot ? You have a read on his hand fair enough but you won't always be right. I call, take a flop and if I hit I have an opportunity to push him off his PP and if I don't, its easy to get away from it. Maybe I'm being too simplistic here.

Hitman Actual

PiperT wrote:

I call, take a flop and if I hit I have an opportunity to push him off his PP and if I don't, its easy to get away from it.

Why would you want to push him off his pocket pair if you hit? That makes flat-calling very -EV. You need to get paid when you hit.

PiperT

lenny_leonard wrote:

Why would you want to push him off his pocket pair if you hit? That makes flat-calling very -EV. You need to get paid when you hit.

Fair point. I guess I was looking ahead to the guy hitting his set which is what happened in the hand. Having said that the pot is still nice enough to take down at this point.

30something

sikes wrote:

he put him on 99-JJ so we are calling knowing we are behind and need help on the flop. so on the face of it, folding is superior to calling.

Clinical reply but if we are going to fold AK we are tighter than a gnat's chuff!

spectre

If you are 100% sure that he will call a push then pushing is bad.

I can call here, you are 2/1 to outflop him. You're getting about 6/4 to call. But do we have the implied odds?

Play this hand 100 times:
============================
66 times you call and miss: -825*66
34 times you call and hit: at least one A/K

---

4 of which he flops a set and you lose: -4800*4

---

30 of which,

---

23 times you stack him 4800*23

---

2 times he sucks out -4800*2

---

5 times the board is too scary and you make only 1225*5

EV = 33275
or +333 per hand

NickyOD

30something wrote:

Clinical reply but if we are going to fold AK we are tighter than a gnat's chuff!

not really. I've often straight fold AK preflop to large EP raises.

Hectorjelly

spectre wrote:

If you are 100% sure that he will call a push then pushing is bad.

I can call here, you are 2/1 to outflop him. You're getting about 6/4 to call. But do we have the implied odds?

Play this hand 100 times:
============================
66 times you call and miss: -825*66
34 times you call and hit: at least one A/K

---

4 of which he flops a set and you lose: -4800*4

---

30 of which,

---

23 times you stack him 4800*23

---

2 times he sucks out -4800*2

---

5 times the board is too scary and you make only 1225*5

EV = 33275
or +333 per hand

What makes you think you stack him 23 times? This seems pretty high

spectre

Hectorjelly wrote:

What makes you think you stack him 23 times? This seems pretty high

Perhaps it is a little high. However,

The 30 is broken down as: X times, he gets all his money in (he will suck out 8% of the time here) and (30-X) he gets away from it. This move carries +EV provided that x>=14

I think you will get his stack in the middle often enough to justify the play. It doesn't carry much +EV but it does seem to be better than pushing/folding

30something

NickyOD wrote:

not really. I've often straight fold AK preflop to large EP raises.

I didn't read the raise as being that big, we are sb here and already have some chips in the pot. I agree it is sometimes right to fold AK preflop to a big ep/mp raise but I guess it depends on the raiser. Is he LAG - call, tight as a gnat's chuff, prolly fold

NickyOD

30something wrote:

I didn't read the raise as being that big, we are sb here and already have some chips in the pot. I agree it is sometimes right to fold AK preflop to a big ep/mp raise but I guess it depends on the raiser. Is he LAG - call, tight as a gnat's chuff, prolly fold

Do you think half a BB makes that nig a difference in this case?

sikes

30something wrote:

Clinical reply but if we are going to fold AK we are tighter than a gnat's chuff!

while i will rarley fold AK preflop, this is one sitiuation where it calls for it. AK is a very powerful hand in this situation where we have folding equity. But it appears we have none, and so we deffo need help on the flop.

IMO if we are calling we need to

1) get paid on a A/K flop .... and
2) bluff a Q flop.

these points conflict eachother so i think a fold is the best option.

(opinions welcome?)