TS Ernesto for now

sirpsycho

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/250836.shtml

sirpsycho

Woo, really starting to look nasty:

billy the squid

On the verge of becoming a named storm...



NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/250836.shtml

NHC Forcast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084901.shtml?5day?large

All models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

At the moment there are no watches or warnings active.

billy the squid

Ernesto has been confirmed with max sustained winds of 40mph

Tropical storm watches have been issued for eastern Haiti and the entire island of Jamaica.

will update the map shortly.

billy the squid

Request to snowbie: any chance of a thread title change

In the last 24 hours the tropical storm watch for Souther Haiti have been upgraded to a tropical storm warning. Haiti tends to fair very badly with even a tropical storm.

The tropical storm watch for Jamaica remains in effect.

As for the US it is looking more like another New Orleans hit, if not Mobile Alabama.

billy the squid

Tropical storm warning and hurricane watch issued for Jamaica. Hurricane watch issued for the Cayman Islands.

Media - Power 106 Kingston Jamaica (RealAudio/Winamp)
http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

Media - Vibe 98.9 - Grand Cayman
http://www.vibefm.ky
Player 365 stream works in Internet explorer only, their Windows Media player stream seems to be shagged right now.

maquiladora

Hurricane now.

billy the squid

In the last 24 hours.

The first hurricane of the season ERNESTO forms. This time last year, Hurricane Katrina was on the verge of decimating New Orleans.

The tropical storm warning for southern Haiti has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. Hurricane watch has been issued for eastern Cuba. Hurricane Watch ant tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. It looks though that it will not be as bad for the Caymans as it looked on Friday or Saturday.

The Florida Keys look to be in the line of fire now as well as Western florida peninsula.

I will do an update on the map after the 15Z advisory.

Snowbie

Looks like Ernesto is starting to dissapate after becoming a Hurricane earlier today.the introduction of an upper level low to its NE and the influence of land will considerbly weaken it.It is then forecast to move right up through Cuba giving a lot of rainfall but only gusty winds.
Then it will reintroduce itself over warmer waters and can become a Cat1 Hurricane again right on top of the Florida keys and looks like it could make landfall on the western side of Florida.

billy the squid

Latest advisory still has it as a hurricane. it was upgraded to hurricane though in an intermediary advisory so I can't imagine there being much change in three hours.

Just have to wait for the discussion part of the advisory package and see what it has to say.

EDIT: Here it is

ERNESTO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT THERE ARE
SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LAST AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...SUGGESTING
THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD
TOWARD YUCATAN...THE SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
THUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH LAND. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD BE
OVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY. HOWEVER...AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY
AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE
PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA.

Snowbie

Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical storm with 6omph winds and a central pressure of 1007mb.

billy the squid

Ernesto has really weakened now, down to Max sustained winds of 50mph

The hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands has now been downgraded to a tropical storm watch.

Ernesto is expected to re-intensify when it passes between hispaniola and Cuba.

Snowbie

Will reintensify after leaving Cuba too.Probably up to CAT2.

billy the squid

I would be skeptical of that happening now. the 12Z advisory has the max winds at 45mph, and it has barely reached Cuba. By the time it re emerges in water again it will be a Depression I think.

Snowbie

Depending on where it emerges Billy i think is the key.
If on a more westerly side of say key west which are located in 29c waters it will intensify quickly but more of a direct hit or east of keys it wont be as quick to intensify.
It will however be a TD when leaving but i personnaly think it will regain minimum CAT1,but on a western side it should make CAT2 if on a direct hit with West Florida.
Its hard to tell with this one as the track is on the wobble and its the Strong trough coming down from the states determining the track,it could well push it more NE to hit Bahamas the way this is going atm.

billy the squid

It is looking more like a Miami Florida or Bahamas track at the moment.

here some links anyway

Radar - Miami Florida
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

nothing showing up on that

Also NBC 6 Florida ahsn't started its rolling coverage yet.
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html
Handy link to have as when it does begin, it is high quality streaming.

More 94 FM Bahamas
http://www.more94fm.com/listen.php
Windows Media Player