River bet sizing problem

Hectorjelly

AQs on the bb. 24 again. The button limps, he is 55/5 and a pretty poor player. The sb is 25/7 and pretty poor post flop. SB then makes it 12 to go. I call as does the button.

The flop is 56Q, the 5 and 6 are spades. The sb bets 16. This doesnt really mean a whole lot as he would bet here with anything. I call, as does the button.

The turn is a red queen. Sb checks, I bet 72 - button calls and the Sb folds.

River is an red ace. Full boat! What should I do here? The button called instantly on the flop and turn. Really really fast. If i bet how much should I bet. We both have over 400 left. About 210 in the pot. The only big hand that me and this gut played before was when we both flopped sets. He minraised me on the flop with top set.

Norwich Fan Rob

push, he may well have a set of 5's or 6's and pay u off.
he also may well have something like 78spades and he wont call a bean.
if hes calling 100 heres he probably calling a push, and at that level, a huge overbet often looks like a missed draw, he could even call with KQ if he is stubborn.

Hectorjelly

I think its unlikely he has a set because he would of raised the flop or turn. Also if he has a full boat here he will almost certainly raise me anyway.

Wombatman

Check like Gus. It's the new "push with a set on the flop"

valor

I check here. most hands that are calling are value betting anyway and it gives him a chance to bluff his missed draw

eggie

I bet 50-60 here trying to make him think i missed the draw and attempting to steal with a weak bet (something he might try himself if roles were reversed), if he hit something he should at least call it or come over the top to try and push you off. If he folds to this he'd probably fold to a push too.

fuzzbox

I like a few different options

A. Shove (i always like shove)
B. Weak lead ... sorta blocking bet, hoping to get raised (prolly wont work)
C. CRAI
D. Pot

yaaay - I managed to say nothing .

eggie

fuzzbox wrote:

I like a few different options

A. Shove (i always like shove)
B. Weak lead ... sorta blocking bet, hoping to get raised (prolly wont work)
C. CRAI
D. Pot

yaaay - I managed to say nothing .

A - if he hasnt got trip Q or better, i think he's folding here
B - with a poor player I think this is still an option. Against a good player prob not.

C- like this too

D - puts him in a sticky wicket (especially with Q, poor kicker)

I reckon he has Q5 or Q6, getting paid no matter what if he has.

robinlacey

if i've been pushing people around a bit at the table and making them fold,then i push
if i've been made to fold a few times,or taken the lead in a hand and had to back down to pressure at all,then i check raise or bet small...

eggie i think it's very unlikely that he has Q5 or Q6 here

NickyOD

A straight forward lead out for 120 looks fine to me. I hate the idea of checking. I think the only hand you get called by though is a flush draw that caught an ace.

Marq

I dislike checking as it means he can check behind with a weak queen for free, whereas he will usually call with a weak queen if you lead for 2/3 - Full pot.

Hectorjelly

Marq wrote:

I dislike checking as it means he can check behind with a weak queen for free, whereas he will usually call with a weak queen if you lead for 2/3 - Full pot.

against a player like this they will never check a queen behind

Gholimoli

i agree with Rob here.
if he has any sort of hand to pay any decent sized bet with then he will go broke with it and if he dosent then he is not going to put much in to this pot at all so shove looks like the best option.

Marq

Hectorjelly wrote:

against a player like this they will never check a queen behind

In that case check to induce a bluff when they have nothing, and to CRAI when they do (obv you CRAI either way).
Do you think he calls any sized bet on the river with a pair of jacks or tens?

Jaden

The action on the river would be determined by what the villian is most likely holding. (Duh).

Villian Limps from the Button, then calls a 3 x BB raise and call. Pot is 36.

He has position.
So - his range.
A,x suited.
Any two broadways.
Any PP.
Suited connectors.

On the flop, he calls a 16 bet.
Pot is now 84.
He'd proabaly call with any find of draw or pair.

On the turn, he calls a 72 bet.
Pot is now 228.
He must have had something to call this bet with.
A/K/J/T Q.
Suited 78 (spades or not).
Suited 56 (spades or not). (Would have raised Flop?)
A 5/6
55
66

River is an A. Hmmm. Assuming range is accurate. He'll only call a pot raise or possibly push with 6 out of 16 holdings. Bet 120 or half-pot and he'd call with 11 out of 16.

Looks like shovey time to me. Marginally.
I couldn't check it for fear he would too. Betting seems like the best option. You've shown strength on every street, he'd ben an idiot to have a go now.

Of course, please remember that I am a Cash Donkey. In fact I am also a Tourney Donkey.

Hectorjelly

I thought he was probably on a draw so I bet 80 hoping he would come over the top of me, he just flat called. In hindsight I dont think the average fish at this level has the balls to raise over my bet so I should of bet much bigger or checked.

Scouser in Dub

What did he call with?

Hectorjelly

Scouser in Dub wrote:

What did he call with?

no idea!