Very unusual situation for live cash hand

BrokenArrows

Anyway i have about $350 infront of me and look down at A10s as the dealer.
Blinds are $5/5$
UTG makes it $25 and to everyone supprise everyone calls around to me and i decide to call. The SB folds and the BB goes all in for $75.

That makes the pot $305. Once again amazed as i was it gets called by EVERYONE around to me. Now its $50 for me to see a pot of $675 is that value or what.

But im just thinking that seen as i have A10 and its very unlikely in this situation that there are any Aces left in the deck should i bother just calling and PUSH for my remaining 275.

What would you do? even though this situation is very unlikely to happen again.

spectre

I'd just call and hope for a really nice flop. It sounds like you have very little fold equity here, the others will probably call "for the value". Also, it looks like you're making a move as you didn't reraise in the first place.

Call, a nice flop will make you push.
A bad flop, and you can limp away to fight another hand.

Dave147

I probably would have layed down A10 pre flop, but you have to push here. You'd be surprised the amount that would fold. You may be up against an underpair in this situation from the BB who is all in or if anyone calls. If someone has AK AQ they'll prob call. So what did you do?

ollyk1

BrokenArrows wrote:

Anyway i have about $350 infront of me and look down at A10s as the dealer.
Blinds are $5/5$
UTG makes it $25 and to everyone supprise everyone calls around to me and i decide to call. The SB folds and the BB goes all in for $75.

That makes the pot $305. Once again amazed as i was it gets called by EVERYONE around to me. Now its $50 for me to see a pot of $675 is that value or what.

But im just thinking that seen as i have A10 and its very unlikely in this situation that there are any Aces left in the deck should i bother just calling and PUSH for my remaining 275.

What would you do? even though this situation is very unlikely to happen again.

I wouldn't call for $25 ever in this spot. As played I may call for $50 and flop the nuts or fold but I would never be in this spot with ATs. Pushing would be crazy imho.

Rnger

Call and hope the flop comes Q72r or KQJs. Just hope it dosent come A26r, then your ****ed. I dont like the push for the reason spectre gives: it looks like exactly what it is, a move to isolate the shortie. Any premium hand wouldnt have played this way

fuzzbox

ollyk1 wrote:

I wouldn't call for $25 ever in this spot. As played I may call for $50 and flop the nuts or fold but I would never be in this spot with ATs. Pushing would be crazy imho.

A big suited Ace getting 6:1 on your money on the button?

You fold this?

Ste05

I'd just call and push if you get a flush draw... I wouldn't be bothering with any A or 10 that might fall,

EDIT: A push is just crazy...

Goodluck2me

a push is horrible here as you didnt re-raise the first time they know you are weak. call and cross your fingers.

Dave147

Well you're not going to bloody flat call with aces here. If you have aces, it's time to stop sandbagging and push.. Since when is A10s a BIG suited ace. I throw away A10 from everywhere except one off the button.

ollyk1

fuzzbox wrote:

A big suited Ace getting 6:1 on your money on the button?

You fold this?

No I don't fold but I wouldn't be involved was my point. :rolleyes: Would you call $25 on the button with a medium sooted Ace against the field in this spot?

Ste05

ollyk1 wrote:

No I don't fold but I wouldn't be involved was my point. :rolleyes: Would you call $25 on the button with a medium sooted Ace against the field in this spot?

If I'm getting offered 6 or 7 :1 on that €25 I'm calling every single time...

fuzzbox

ollyk1 wrote:

No I don't fold but I wouldn't be involved was my point. :rolleyes: Would you call $25 on the button with a medium sooted Ace against the field in this spot?

I am talking about the oringal 25.

Some1 makes it 25 ... the world calls, and its 25 to you on the button with AsTs.

Any suited Ace is a fine call here I figure.

Why would you fold a suited Ace on the button for 25 into a 150 pot? (or whatever it was).

Moreover - the T is reasonably hi, so if the board does come AT3, then you can stack A3 and AK .

Just dont play for the rest if you flop only an Ace or a T.

AmarilloFats

fuzzbox wrote:

Any suited Ace is a fine call here I figure.

But what do you think of the push??
Your play has given away alot about the strength of your hand.. this is dangerous and could lead to someone making a good call with AJ AQ etc.. If you had some reads etc that would be good....

Hope it worked out.

ollyk1

fuzzbox wrote:

I am talking about the oringal 25.

Some1 makes it 25 ... the world calls, and its 25 to you on the button with AsTs.

Any suited Ace is a fine call here I figure.

Why would you fold a suited Ace on the button for 25 into a 150 pot? (or whatever it was).

Moreover - the T is reasonably hi, so if the board does come AT3, then you can stack A3 and AK .

Just dont play for the rest if you flop only an Ace or a T.

I guess this is pretty simple question and heres the variables as I see them feel free to add anything in that I've missed

1. how many flops do we hit hard enough that we are happy to get our tank in on?

I'd suggest we need top two pair minimum. Simple mathematical flop excerise (as there is >5% chance its not an all-in fest on the flop). I don't have any software available at the minute but i'm going to hazard a guess at 7%. You have to figure a few aces are missing from the deck?? Is this about right?

2. how often when we hit such flops do we get paid?

This is probably the area where my intuitive calculations were wrong in that I'd like to think I'd not pay someone off with A3 on a AT3 board but maybe someone does.

It always surprises me what people will pay you off with. So lets say we get paid off 100% of the time. (We could in theory get paid off 800% of the time but lets say on average we get one caller on our unlikely flop). Is this a good estimate do you think?

3. how often when we hit such flops do we lose? Either by suck out or by an even better hand remaining good.

I'd say 60% of the time our hand is good, remains good or sucks out to become good.

Lets crunch those numbers

0.07 * 0.6 *$650 +0.07 * 0.6 * $225 = $36.75


I guess you are right Fuzz I should call provided I'm a disciplined monkey on the flop. But is a $10 expectation preflop enough in this spot where all our stack is very much at risk? It probably is but I'm underrolled for cash games and therefore don't play them as I wouldn't play optimally and sometimes that can effect my game in ways I don't even realise and this is an example of one of them I guess.

jem

I would flat call and see what the flop is, likewise I would not have folded as dealer,
crazy imho to push.

fuzzbox

ollyk1 wrote:

I guess this is pretty simple question and heres the variables as I see them feel free to add anything in that I've missed

1. how many flops do we hit hard enough that we are happy to get our tank in on?

I'd suggest we need top two pair minimum. Simple mathematical flop excerise (as there is >5% chance its not an all-in fest on the flop). I don't have any software available at the minute but i'm going to hazard a guess at 7%. You have to figure a few aces are missing from the deck?? Is this about right?

2. how often when we hit such flops do we get paid?

This is probably the area where my intuitive calculations were wrong in that I'd like to think I'd not pay someone off with A3 on a AT3 board but maybe someone does.

It always surprises me what people will pay you off with. So lets say we get paid off 100% of the time. (We could in theory get paid off 800% of the time but lets say on average we get one caller on our unlikely flop). Is this a good estimate do you think?

3. how often when we hit such flops do we lose? Either by suck out or by an even better hand remaining good.

I'd say 60% of the time our hand is good, remains good or sucks out to become good.

Lets crunch those numbers

0.07 * 0.6 *$650 +0.07 * 0.6 * $225 = $36.75


I guess you are right Fuzz I should call provided I'm a disciplined monkey on the flop. But is a $10 expectation preflop enough in this spot where all our stack is very much at risk? It probably is but I'm underrolled for cash games and therefore don't play them as I wouldn't play optimally and sometimes that can effect my game in ways I don't even realise and this is an example of one of them I guess.

What?
Where are you getting these numbers from?

What is that formula representing?

I think I'm going blind.

ollyk1

fuzzbox wrote:

What?
Where are you getting these numbers from?

What is that formula representing?

I think I'm going blind.

LOL. Making Fuzz go blind that's got to be good in the long run!!!:D

7% chance of hitting the flop times the 60% chance of doubling our remaining stack ($325 times 2) plus 7% chance of winning the main pot times 60% chance of our hand remaining good (25 * 9 = $225).

I'm just trying to put some numbers on what I feel my chances are in the cold light of day as it were.

Alternative formulas are welcome!

Rnger

I see no way how you will ever achieve a negitive expectation with that formula. All the numbers are positive. Surely the whole point of toting all that up is to prove its +EV.

I am certaintly not suggesting another formula though!

edit:i've just after thoroughly confusing myself...

fuzzbox

Your numbers are mad, and ur formula is muck .

325*2 ... why on earth do you multiply 325*2 ?

hehehe

7% .... where did you get 7% from?

You hit a flush draw 1 in 8 times .... which is 12.5% for a start. Now add on some more stuff like two pair/top trips, and it goes up to something like 15%.
Pair+fd .... gutshot +fd ... and so on.

7% indeed.

BrokenArrows

Well in this situation the flop came 8910 rainbow. it was checked around to me i bet out 150 and get flat called by one person everyone else folds.

Turn an ace all the money goes in and i run into JQ

fuzzbox

You are not supposed to bet the flop .... ESPECIALLY that flop.

ollyk1

Rnger wrote:

I see no way how you will ever achieve a negitive expectation with that formula. All the numbers are positive. Surely the whole point of toting all that up is to prove its +EV.

I am certaintly not suggesting another formula though!

eh?

We always expect to win some money Rnger. Its how much money do we expect to win for the $25 invested. -EV would be if we expected to win $24.99 or less I guess.

My formula (with very hypothetical weightings might I add) says you expect to make a net profit of ~$12 for the $25 invested and therefore Fuzz seems to be correct in his assertion that I should call in these circumstances, provided I have Fuzz's restraint and don't think my hand is good on ace high boards with no ten!! If you are likely to make a large and costly error on the flop you should fold preflop, and as I have no doubt Fuzz will say you probably shouldn't play at all!!

My answer to that of course is I don't play! Self knowledge is serious +EV in poker!!

ollyk1

fuzzbox wrote:

Your numbers are mad, and ur formula is muck .

325*2 ... why on earth do you multiply 325*2 ?

hehehe

7% .... where did you get 7% from?

You hit a flush draw 1 in 8 times .... which is 12.5% for a start. Now add on some more stuff like two pair/top trips, and it goes up to something like 15%.
Pair+fd .... gutshot +fd ... and so on.

7% indeed.

And you fill the fd 35% of the time .125 * .35 = 4.4% of the time and filling in your flush draw is reflected partially in the 60% of the time you come from behind to win or you are in front and your hand stays good I contend.

What rough and ready formula would you use Fuzz? Or would you feel AT is an above average hand there are a load of donkeys in the pot (who will go broke with mediocre holdings) and I am a vastly superior player to them and therefore I'm happy playing inflated flops. No need to worry about the math because its only confirming what I already know?? I'd say you are probably right to think that way I'd just be interested to know if you ever bother to get a feel for the level of edge you have in certain situations??

I'd say an expectation of ~$12 profit on the $25 invested isn't far off the mark but I felt the OP didn't have the discipline to not go broke on a ten high straight flop and heh heh I was right.

Therefore he shouldn't play AT in this spot! And the fact he considered pushing kind of suggested that to me.


P.S. $325 is our remaining stack after we call $25 and if we win a pot with one caller on the flop we win 325*2 plus 25 *9 = $875 No?

ollyk1

BrokenArrows wrote:

Well in this situation the flop came 8910 rainbow. it was checked around to me i bet out 150 and get flat called by one person everyone else folds.

Turn an ace all the money goes in and i run into JQ

This has been an interesting thread for me and two lessons I've learnt in the style of Sesame street are


1. I don't back myself enough to outplay people on flops. I play safe tournie style don't go broke poker and i'm giving up $$'s as a result. (I knew this already but I haven't yet learned/addressed the issue so that's something to work on)

2. Playing like Fuzz can seriously damage your wealth if you are a player with holes in your game and I'm sorry Brokenarrows but betting on that flop when its been checked around is awful. I'd say that's a bigger hole then folding AT preflop. Who is going to call that bet with a hand you beat?? Horrible bet.

BrokenArrows

ollyk1 wrote:

This has been an interesting thread for me and two lessons I've learnt in the style of Sesame street are


1. I don't back myself enough to outplay people on flops. I play safe tournie style don't go broke poker and i'm giving up $$'s as a result. (I knew this already but I haven't yet learned/addressed the issue so that's something to work on)

2. Playing like Fuzz can seriously damage your wealth if you are a player with holes in your game and I'm sorry Brokenarrows but betting on that flop when its been checked around is awful. I'd say that's a bigger hole then folding AT preflop. Who is going to call that bet with a hand you beat?? Horrible bet.

Cant deny that one. lol. My game has as many holes as a fishing net but im working on it.

Ste05

IMO this is such a simple hand.

Here's how I look at it:

It's about 8.1:1 that we flop a flush draw.... We are already getting at least those odds at every stage so far in the hand. Add in our (IMO guaranteed) implied odds because we are (almost) guaranteed to get at least 1 if not 2 callers to our flop push (or we'll have an All-In to call before the action gets to us), therefore including our implied odds and knowing that we are guaranteed the correct odds on the flop, added to the fact that when we call PF we are closing the action, it's a very simple situation (once we are properly BR'd)....

If you add in Flops like A1010, AA10, A10x, etc. this is a lovely situation to be in. We've had easy decisions the whole hand...