How many hands is a true reflection of your bb/100

luckylucky

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are here :- I have played 40+k hands since last september in my pokertracker db. I have been a bit daft in my game selection though...
I have played limit, pot limit, no limit from anything from 1/2 to 5/10nl and 2/4to 30/60 at limit - I have a reasonable bb/100 at nearly 5 but I have played so many different levels the accuracy of this as any sort of indicator other than i have done 'alright' is not much use.

I'm not going to do it the above way anymore - it was totally unstructured and the ups and downs would eventually give me a bloody heart attack along with more gray hairs

Since my return to playing last weekend after a 1 month self-imposed absense I have decided to start just below the low end of what i'm used to at the .5/1 nl and I want to get a real indication of where I am at - I intend playing exclusively on this for about 20k hands . At the moment I am absolutely murdering the game with a win rate of over 32BB/100 after just under 2000 hands - I do think I have played well after soaking up all the posts here and the fact that my bankroll is comfy at this level helps a lot - still I have no doubt this win rate is largely due to variance and is not going to continue at anything like that level - at what point do u guys reckon would my win rate be ballpark accurate - 20k hands enuf?

pok3rplaya

Poker tracker will tell you your standard deviation (SD)

To determine your winrate with X ammount of confidence would require this ammount of hands at each level:

95% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 15.4 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 3.8 million hands.

99% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 26.5 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 6.6 million hands.

pok3rplaya

But yeah, forget about winrate, it is meaningless pretty much.

Move up when your bankroll and confidence allows. Move down when needed. Just whatever you do, play with a comfortable bankroll.

luckylucky

pok3rplaya wrote:

But yeah, forget about winrate, it is meaningless pretty much.

Move up when your bankroll and confidence allows. Move down when needed. Just whatever you do, play with a comfortable bankroll.

fair enuf :- before i was always pushing with my bankroll i rarely had more than 20 buy-ins for whatever level i played at - now i think when u can multitable and when the standard is so much poorer at the lower levels it doesn't make sense to put the bankroll at risk - from now on it's going to be a much more patient luckylucky . and I'm taking the playing with 'scared money factor out of da equation'

pok3rplaya wrote:

Poker tracker will tell you your standard deviation (SD)

To determine your winrate with X ammount of confidence would require this ammount of hands at each level:

95% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 15.4 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 3.8 million hands.

99% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 26.5 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 6.6 million hands.

Now u r taking the p1$$

It would be nice to get some sort of idea of the accuracy of the winrate though, I'll have a search around on other forums 'n stuff and c if i can find anything. I know I've seen the formulas b4 for calculating this stuff but it would be easier to just get some online tool that uses the pokertracker data.

luckylucky

I found this url which seems useful http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standard-deviation-page43.html . It's more to do with bankroll but it's all sort of related anyways.

pok3rplaya

I just always move up when I hit 30 buy-ins. I'll move back down if I lose 4 buy-ins after moving up.

I'd be perfectlu happy playing 100NL with 20 buyins thought. Any higher and I feel you need 30.