Flopped a set and going all the way

Mr. Flibble

Here I flopped a set and the board put straights all over the place. I was pretty sure I was ahead, willing to call an all in but really think my river bet sucked. Thought he might make a desperation call with TPTK/2pair as it was unlikly for me to have a straight and he might have assumed a set/2 pair would have to slow down on such a scary board but, in hindsight at least, I think that would go over his head.

Player in question has fishy stats and he could well have had A8 or 35.


Seat 1 : threalbad has $69.76
Seat 2 : HERO has $198
Seat 3 : cookiedo has $110.75
Seat 4 : king-kicker has $151.25
Seat 5 : choi123 has $191.66
Seat 6 : lichenxp has $146.70
threalbad is the dealer.
HERO posted small blind.
cookiedo posted big blind.
Game [2506] started with 6 players.
Dealing Hole Cards.
Seat 2 : HERO has 2c 2d
king-kicker folded.
choi123 called $2
lichenxp called $2 and raised $4
threalbad folded.
HERO called $5
cookiedo has 10 seconds to respond.
cookiedo folded.
choi123 called $4
Dealing flop.
Board cards [8h 4c 2s]
HERO checked.
choi123 bet $15
lichenxp folded.
HERO called $15
Dealing turn.
Board cards [8h 4c 2s 5h]
HERO checked.
choi123 bet $25
HERO called $25 and raised $50
choi123 called $50
Dealing river.
Board cards [8h 4c 2s 5h 7c]
HERO bet $100

valor

Lead the flop
Barring that, raise it, and then you can lead the turn/push the river

boba_fett3099

I think check-calling the flop is okay but i think i lead the turn and push to a re-raise or if he flat calls i push the river.

Mr. Flibble

valor wrote:

Lead the flop
Barring that, raise it, and then you can lead the turn/push the river

I don't agree with leading the flop here. I do lead alot if I hit a set, but only if I think the PF raiser has a big hand or could have hit the flop. It doesn't look like anyone could have hit anything big (unless a set and I'm beat) here on an 8 high flop.

Perhaps I could lead the turn, but I really thought that the most I was up against that I was beating was A8/78/89 and that he'd put in a biggish bet to protect his hand. I think betting out here really says that I've made something and 8s aren't good. It would be prob better to lead out tho if he had 99 or TT which he could well have had.

But I'm really asking abou the river bet? Maybe I'm juts playing hindsight poker but I can't see much calling me here unless I'm beat and therefore such a big bet sucks - of course I'd though myself genius if A8/99 called me!

Lafortezza

Its hard to see anything that will call your river bet but the straight or a set, unlikely for 2 pair or an over pair to still think they have a chance. I'd prefer to check the river, or bet smaller (and fold to a raise).