Census 2006 results

Navan Junction

* Details of the preliminary report of the 2006 census will be available of the CSO's website (www.cso.ie) later today.
_____________________________________________________________

Census to show population over 4m
Carl O'Brien, Irish Times

Today's census results are expected to show that the population has reached its highest level in 135 years.

Officials at the Central Statistics Office (CSO) projected earlier this year that the census would record an overall population of more than 4 million.

The last time the population reached this level was in 1871, when the census recorded 4.1 million. The last census in 2002 recorded a population of 3.9 million.

Today's census figures are also expected to show high levels of net immigration into the country, although figures relating to nationality and ethnicity are not due to be published until next year.

The census is regarded as the best measure of immigration into the country, especially since the accession of new EU states.

While personal public service (PPS) numbers are an indication of immigration into Ireland, they are not seen as a reliable way of measuring the numbers living here.

That is because PPS numbers do not show whether a person has returned to their country of origin, while many migrant workers may not have such numbers.

CSO officials expect that the results on nationality will show that the proportion of foreign nationals resident here has increased from 6 per cent in 2002 to 10 per cent, or 400,000 people.

This figure is similar to countries with a long history of immigration, such as the US and Britain.

CSO officials say they are confident about the integrity of the overall figures to be published today after recording as near to a 100 per cent participation rate as possible.

About 1.5 million forms were sent to homes around the State.

The census also included three new questions on participation in voluntary activities, family relationships and fertility.

This year's census was translated into 11 foreign languages to ensure there would be a good response from foreign nationals living here.

The languages were Arabic, Czech, Chinese, French, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian and Spanish.

As well as typical demographic matters, other questions included commuting patterns, level of education, existence of a disability and access to the internet.

The response of the population to these questions will be released on a rolling basis over the next year.

About 5,000 temporary staff were employed to carry out the census, including 4,500 enumerators.

The enumerators earned on average €2,200 for their work.

© The Irish Times

mike65

and?

Mike.

loyatemu

Navan Junction wrote:

*
The last time the population reached this level was in 1871, when the census recorded 4.1 million. The last census in 2002 recorded a population of 3.9 million.

surely the 1871 figure was for the whole island - if you include the north the population has been over 4m for decades.

EDIT - actually I may be wrong there - 1871 census put the population of Ireland as 5.4m, so presumably the 4.1m figure is just for the 26 counties.

popebenny16

and?

Mike.

The census will tell us a lot about the viability and the effectiveness of various transport inititatives within t21.

mike65

I know that but Navan Junction should have offered some context to the article I think (pedantic mode!).

Mike.

popebenny16

He's probably warming us up for the big reveal later on when the results go live..................

Navan Junction

Census shows State's population now at 4.2m
The population of the Republic has doubled since 1961 and is now at its higest level since records began in 1861.

There are now 4,234,925 people living in the State, according to preliminary figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) today.

The figures - which were compiled during the April Census - show the population has risen by 318,000 since 2002, a rise of 8.1 per cent over the four years, or by 2 per cent per annum.

The figures show the population has risen by a dramatic 50 per cent since 1961, when it was recorded at 2.8 million.

The number of non-Irish nationals living in the Republic has almost doubled since the last Census in 2002, when it was approximately 220,000.

It is now estimated at 400,000 which represents between 9 and 10 per cent of the total population.

Looked at from a 10 year perspective Ireland's population is growing by 1.6 per cent per annum. This is the highest rate of growth in the EU, ahead of Cyprus and Luxembourg.

The three countries were the only in the European Union to experience growth rates of over 1 per cent in the ten-year period.

Fastest growing counties in the State since 2002 were Fingal (+22.1 per cent), Meath (+21.4) and Kildare (+13.5). A third of the total population increase over the last 10 years has been in these three counties.

The population of Leinster as a whole outstripped the national average increase of 8.1 per cent during the four-year period - rising by 8.9 per cent or from 2,105,579 to 2,292,939.

The population of Connacht also eclipsed the national rate of increase - rising by 8.4 per cent or from 464,296 to 503,083.

Ulster's population (that of Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan) equalled the national rate of increase of 8.1 per cent - rising from 246,714 to 266,733.

But significantly Munster's population only rose by 6.5 per cent or from 1,100,614 to 1,172,170.

Cork City and Limerick City were the only two of the 34 administrative regions to register a fall in population during the 2002-2006 period.

A CSO spokesman said the decline in these two areas could not be attributed to the large number of people who had traveled to Dublin to attend the Heineken Cup semi-final between Munster and Leinster during the period.

Apart from Fingal, there was a relatively modest increase of just 20,000 in the rest of Dublin meaning the overall population of Dublin grew by just 5.6 per cent - considerably less than the 8.1 per cent increase for the State as a whole.

© The Irish Times/ireland.com

popebenny16

Sorry NJ, missed that................... it's hot down here...........

Navan Junction

popebenny16 wrote:

Sorry NJ, missed that................... it's hot down here...........

Sorry Benny - I was going to let the figures speak for themselves..!

That last post is the latest on Ireland.com, but I want to check how Meath features.

That initial bit kindof confirms what it is like on the ground - the boom's epicentre is focued around the north and west of Dublin..

Interested in seeing stats for the towns.

The relatively low level of growth in Munster is a surprise to me anyway.

It's about time that up to date figures were to hand though..

mike65 wrote:

I know that but Navan Junction should have offered some context to the article I think (pedantic mode!).

Mike.

My apologies - the context was that of commuter patterns..

BendiBus

Navan Junction wrote:

Cork City and Limerick City were the only two of the 34 administrative regions to register a fall in population during the 2002-2006 period.

Something is terribly wrong with our national development policies if our second & third cities are losing population in an period of unprecedented population growth.

jlang

Of course, the government snuck in the constituency boundary changes based on the previous census so Dublin West and North, etc will even more underrepresented in the next Dail than they would have been. In the case of Dublin West, the new figure is higher than 30,000 per TD - outside the range set by the constitution of 20-30k.

Incidentally, Dun Laoghaire has the lowest population per TD at 22787. DunL presumably has a slightly older population distribution so should be closer to the average on electorate per TD but the constitution bases the requirement on population not people of voting age.

1huge1

cork city and limerick cities population fell
i dont know why cork fell but the reason limerick city fell is because their population is only counted for preety much the inner city and that is were devolepment is going on, it says there is only 52,000 people in limerick city sure when we all now its over 100,000

anyone expect it be be higher than 4.2million?

jlang

BendiBus wrote:

Something is terribly wrong with our national development policies if our second & third cities are losing population in an period of unprecedented population growth.

I think it's more that something is up with the boundary of the second and third (and most) cities as the areas just outside the city limits are growing greatly in most cases. Inside the city limits infill construction is taking place but average household size is still shrinking. Basically, the elderly aren't dying off quick enough to release the buildings they live in so their kids have to move further away (I'm sure there's a more politically correct way to phrase that).

WhatsGoingOn

1huge1 wrote:

cork city and limerick cities population fell
i dont know why cork fell but the reason limerick city fell is because their population is only counted for preety much the inner city and that is were devolepment is going on, it says there is only 52,000 people in limerick city sure when we all now its over 100,000

anyone expect it be be higher than 4.2million?

Might have been something to do with Munster being in the Heineken Cup Final with over 60,000 Munster fans (nmainly from Limerick and Cork) in Cardiff the weekend of the census.

1huge1

WhatsGoingOn wrote:

Might have been something to do with Munster being in the Heineken Cup Final with over 60,000 Munster fans (nmainly from Limerick and Cork) in Cardiff the weekend of the census.

yes but limerick was 55,000 in 2002 and nothing was on when that was been taken

im sure that has something to do with it but i live outside limerick and loads of houses are been built in the suburbs but the city centre (which is preety much the only thing in the city boundry) is all been changed into shops businesses etc

Aidan1

They're not. They both suffer from boundary issues.

Most of Cork county's rise in population has arisen in the immediate proximity to the city, places like Douglas and Ballincollig that are effectively parts of the city anyway. Cork Rural Area, which includes both of those areas has increased by nearly 15,000 people. More of the growth is spread out further, but even then it is being concentrated in a number of towns and villages. Limerick is similar, but has the additional problem that a lot of the growth is concentrated in Co Clare and North Tipp.

All told, when taken on a county basis, Cork has more or less held its percentage of the national population in the period 2002-2006, down slightly from around 11.4% to 11.3%. Not ideal in the context of the NSS (ie it isn't working) but at least its not a serious drop. Limerick is similar (4.4% to 4.3%). Both cities are at least 5 years behind Dublin when it comes to developments, with major city developments only coming on stream now (Cork Docklands for example) so there should be a slight rebalancing over the next intercensal. Nothing close to what is required to slow the growth of Dublin though.

In a way, both of these are a reflection of whats happening in Dublin, with a classic donut shape arising, just on a much smaller scale. If you look at the map of Dublin on p.17 of the summary document, it shows that in many areas in the city, but outside of the immediate city centre, population is falling also. In all three cases, the fundamental problems relate to public transport provision, demographics (empty nest syndrome) and social problems more generally associated with urban planning than with immediate regional disparities.

dowlingm

the nimbys in Cork City don't help either.

dowlingm

Here's some figures from a quick read of the CSO preliminary:

Navan-Clonsilla catchment:
Navan Rural up 5k (29%) 2nd biggest total pop change in the State
Ratoath up 3k (55%), 9th biggest.
Navan Urban is up a modest 400.
Dunshauglin rural is up 6,500.

[edit to remove an incorrect line]

Northern line catchment:
St Mary's, Drogheda up 3.25k 60% (7th biggest)
Julianstown (south of Drogheda) up 2.5k 42.6% (18th biggest)

Metro catchment:
Swords-Lissenhall up 3k 50% (10th biggest)
Dubber (near airport) up 2.9k 344% (12th biggest)
Swords-Forrest up 2.7k 27% (16th biggest)
(a couple of other Fingal wards are there too but don't know what part of Fingal they're in)

I don't have time to look at the rest for now - maybe some others could pitch in on some of the other existing and proposed transport links and their catchments?

Navan Junction

dowlingm wrote:

Here's some figures from a quick read of the CSO preliminary:

Navan-Clonsilla catchment:
Navan Rural up 5k (29%) 2nd biggest total pop change in the State
Ratoath up 3k (55%), 9th biggest.
Navan Urban is up a modest 400.
Dunshauglin rural is up 6,500.

All the breakdowns are down to town boundary not being accurate.

Remember I mentioned that there are thousands of people that can't vote in the Navan TC election because of the old and now artifical town boundary.

It's going to be changed though hoprefully. Hopefully the commuters start voting when it does.

Maskhadov

has anyone got a link to a graph or numerical data showing the population in the 26 and 32 counties back as far as when we were 8.5 million ? I think the max population in the south was 6

jd

Navan Junction wrote:

All the breakdowns are down to town boundary not being accurate.

.

This is a problem in a lot of towns. Wexford will have its boundary extended the to By-Pass and across the river to parts of Ardcavan.

I remember Frank MacDonald being disingenuous and saying that Gorey's population was rising while Wexford Town's population was falling!

अधिनायक

Do any of you know where to find the boundaries of electoral divisions? Are they a CSO invention?

jd

Yeah, I'm trying to figure out which division Northwood,Santry is in

Could it be Dubber, which would help explain the large increase in population there?

Navan Junction

Maskhadov wrote:

I think the max population in the south was 6

Be wary of that. Their census 'method' in some parts back in the early ones was to go to a hill and count the number of cottages below and mulitply them by 4 people.

14 in many cases would have been more accurate.

mysterious

Aidan1 wrote:

They're not. They both suffer from boundary issues.

Most of Cork county's rise in population has arisen in the immediate proximity to the city, places like Douglas and Ballincollig that are effectively parts of the city anyway. Cork Rural Area, which includes both of those areas has increased by nearly 15,000 people. More of the growth is spread out further, but even then it is being concentrated in a number of towns and villages. Limerick is similar, but has the additional problem that a lot of the growth is concentrated in Co Clare and North Tipp.

All told, when taken on a county basis, Cork has more or less held its percentage of the national population in the period 2002-2006, down slightly from around 11.4% to 11.3%. Not ideal in the context of the NSS (ie it isn't working) but at least its not a serious drop. Limerick is similar (4.4% to 4.3%). Both cities are at least 5 years behind Dublin when it comes to developments, with major city developments only coming on stream now (Cork Docklands for example) so there should be a slight rebalancing over the next intercensal. Nothing close to what is required to slow the growth of Dublin though.

In a way, both of these are a reflection of whats happening in Dublin, with a classic donut shape arising, just on a much smaller scale. If you look at the map of Dublin on p.17 of the summary document, it shows that in many areas in the city, but outside of the immediate city centre, population is falling also. In all three cases, the fundamental problems relate to public transport provision, demographics (empty nest syndrome) and social problems more generally associated with urban planning than with immediate regional disparities.

Though I think the actual city of Limerick would have being an increase, though Limerick got hit big time with the Rugby match. Cork central has being declining for years. Cork boundary is much bigger than Limericks. Most of Limerick's population is outside the boundary more than half at this stage. Like Cork, Limerick has places such as Annacotty and Patrickswell (though smaller than Cork's example) are not mentioned to be suburbs under the CSO full stats figures for the totals of Limerick. Limerick city is spreading more irregular than it did in the last census. Your right that Limerick has a very complex problem that it's commuter belt is spreading into 4 counties including Co. Cork... yes shocking. It's spilling into places such as Charleville...

Why won't the govenrment see the issue with Limerick.

dubhthach

mysterious wrote:

Though I think the actual city of Limerick would have being an increase, though Limerick got hit big time with the Rugby match. Cork central has being declining for years. Cork boundary is much bigger than Limericks. Most of Limerick's population is outside the boundary more than half at this stage. Like Cork, Limerick has places such as Annacotty and Patrickswell (though smaller than Cork's example) are not mentioned to be suburbs under the CSO full stats figures for the totals of Limerick. Limerick city is spreading more irregular than it did in the last census. Your right that Limerick has a very complex problem that it's commuter belt is spreading into 4 counties including Co. Cork... yes shocking. It's spilling into places such as Charleville...

Why won't the govenrment see the issue with Limerick.

Changes to Limerick boundary are been opposed by Limerick County council as they will loose a huge amount of rates from all the industrail/comerical operators in area that Limerick city wants to operate.

I believe (i could be wrong) that Cork's boundary is only half the size of the city boundary of Dublin (which only has pop of over 500,000) whereas Galway supposdly has twice the area of Limerick within it's city boundary.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Aidan1

Put it another way, theres another 105,000 living in the Cork Rural ED, that area that should be part of the city.

I was quire surprised at the low rate of growth in Limerick, city and county, 8,559 in total. If you add the growth in the EDs of Midleton and Mallow in Cork you almost reach that total. Even if you add in all of Clare's growth, its still low. Just on observation alone, I would have thought that there would a greater rise in the population.

The maps provided are interesting. Have a look at the increases in numbers along the Cavan side of its border with Meath. Looks like Cavan CoCo are being nice and liberal with the planning permissions by comparison with Meath.

Just on the figures for the immediate catchment for the Midleton line.

The Midleton Rural Area (old ED) is up 5,530 to 21,133 (26%), of that Midleton 'UDC' area is up 116 to 3,914, Midleton Rural is up 1,747 to 6,422 and Carrigtwohill is up 1,362 to 3,507. Most of the rest is being concentrated in designated 'Ring towns', like Cloyne, which (the DED at least) has seen a rise of 683 to 3,195. Hence the vast bulk of the growth is being concentrated in a small number of centres, with most DEDs (EDs now) seeing only very minor rises in population.

All of this is before the Special Local Area Plans for Midleton and Carrigtwohill have come into effect. These were drawn up after the railway line was confirmed, and have resulted in the zoning or large amounts (as in several hundred acres) of land close to the existing towns, and close to Railway lines. This land is zoned and planned for new communities, complete with schools etc, rather than just acres of houses. Some of the land is already being built on, and more is on the market. This is before the Amgen effect also.

In short, CASP is working.

Transport21 Fan

BendiBus wrote:

Something is terribly wrong with our national development policies if our second & third cities are losing population in an period of unprecedented population growth.

Welcome to Parlon Country. Nearly 1/3 of all houses built in the state last year were one-offs by speculative farmers in the property game under the guise of "maintaining a vibrant and living countryside." There houses were not built for their sons to keep them on the land. These houses were built to be sold to the higgest bidder.

As for maintaining a vibrant countryside, well the precise opposite is happening as the rural regions of the country have been turned into a bland wasteland of one-offs with people locked indoors looking at SKY Digital and their 13 year old kid in the 2 acres of tree less backyard lawn (which needs constant strimming) kicking a ball to his baby sister as he has no one his own age to hang out with. The roads are filled with drunken farmers driving at 100MPH on suspended sentences (due to the compassion of the rural courts) who will kill him if he tries to walk or cycle to find a freind his own age.

Current govenment planning and settlement polcies in unique in that is it killing both rural and urban Ireland.

In many ways Limerick and to a much lesser extent Cork, only have themselves to blame. They sit back and allow places like rural Mayo to take infrastrutual development they do not need under the guise of regional devlopment. It's not Dublin who get robbed, it's Limerick, Cork, Waterford, Navan etc.

The Limerick City Engineer is on record as saying that the Western Rail Corridor to Claremorris is the only viable commuter rail line for the city. Groups like the Western Development Board ringfence development funds away from places like Limerick, Cork and Navan. This is why our urban regions are in trouble in terms of sustainable infrastructure. The rural TD's and their massive collection of rural and farming groups are destroying our cities so they can have their regional airports, western rail corridors and so forth.

A multidue of sins are being committed as part of this regional development scam so TD can keep their seats in rural areas.

mysterious

Aidan1 wrote:

Put it another way, theres another 105,000 living in the Cork Rural ED, that area that should be part of the city.

I was quire surprised at the low rate of growth in Limerick, city and county, 8,559 in total. If you add the growth in the EDs of Midleton and Mallow in Cork you almost reach that total. Even if you add in all of Clare's growth, its still low. Just on observation alone, I would have thought that there would a greater rise in the population.

The maps provided are interesting. Have a look at the increases in numbers along the Cavan side of its border with Meath. Looks like Cavan CoCo are being nice and liberal with the planning permissions by comparison with Meath.

Just on the figures for the immediate catchment for the Midleton line.

The Midleton Rural Area (old ED) is up 5,530 to 21,133 (26%), of that Midleton 'UDC' area is up 116 to 3,914, Midleton Rural is up 1,747 to 6,422 and Carrigtwohill is up 1,362 to 3,507. Most of the rest is being concentrated in designated 'Ring towns', like Cloyne, which (the DED at least) has seen a rise of 683 to 3,195. Hence the vast bulk of the growth is being concentrated in a small number of centres, with most DEDs (EDs now) seeing only very minor rises in population.

All of this is before the Special Local Area Plans for Midleton and Carrigtwohill have come into effect. These were drawn up after the railway line was confirmed, and have resulted in the zoning or large amounts (as in several hundred acres) of land close to the existing towns, and close to Railway lines. This land is zoned and planned for new communities, complete with schools etc, rather than just acres of houses. Some of the land is already being built on, and more is on the market. This is before the Amgen effect also.

In short, CASP is working.

I agree. Surprised somewhat but you can see the entire city looks emtied judging from the map, for one almost 20,000 people left for the Munster match.. and that is going to take a large chunk out of the city...

Secondly take North tipp the rate of growth and in migrated has nearly doubled since the last census.

I'm a very surprised at the rate of growth of Limerick and Clare though. Limerick seems to have the issue with a large rural population close to the city. Limerick is the blame for some of this dougnut and emtyin effect. All the bouroughs, councils whether it's clare, Tipp or Limerick neither seem to work together, and is causing major irregularity and growth. Limerick is growing into towns such as Newcastle, Charelville, Newport and Nenagh.. which are a decent distance from the city for it's size. all of them are not in either Clare or Limerick but Cork and Tipp!!!!

The next census hopefully will be more accurate.. Limerick has a large rural EDs to btw. Though on a positive note, Ballycummin had the fastest growth of any region in Munster.


It dosnt make sense since there is no other explaination why there is a sudden drop in the Limerick city Bourough.. In the last census it was up. and this time the city seems to be building more than ever apartments are now at once a trend and people are moving to the city, you can see it happening along Mallow street for example, Henry street another, and all the Urban renewal etc.. Just look at google earth. All the high rise along the riverfront...