GAA - next set of fixtures

jobless

I like to have a punt on the aul GAA once in a while.....was just wondering if anyone had tips for the next set of fixtures...?...

although dublin should beat offaly, 2/9 is a bit short..

i think galway to beat Kilkenny is value at 11/4.....

also sligo to beat W Meath 10/11....is worth a few bob

any opinions on the games?

Culchie

jobless wrote:

I like to have a punt on the aul GAA once in a while.....was just wondering if anyone had tips for the next set of fixtures...?...

although dublin should beat offaly, 2/9 is a bit short..

i think galway to beat Kilkenny is value at 11/4.....

also sligo to beat W Meath 10/11....is worth a few bob

any opinions on the games?

2/9 is a mental price for the Dubs, I think the biffos will run the Dubs very very close. Wouldn't touch that bet.

jobless

i honestly dont see dublin having any trouble winning here.....the price is short though...

if the game wasnt at croke park i wouldnt be as confident

bookiebasher

meath at 7/4 is a huge price with pp.
laois looked good against tyrone but tyrone were not firing all year and against dublin laois looked a ragged outfit so somewhere in between is their true form.Meath have had an extra week to prepare and are at home and dont forget they had 4 goal chances and missed them all against wexford and if they got 1 they would have won.

Kingp35

jobless wrote:

i think galway to beat Kilkenny is value at 11/4.....

Yeah if you plan on throwing your money away it is.

telecaster

For all you lads whinging about the ridiculously short priced Dubs: if that's your thinking on the odds, fair enough, but it automatically implies that Offaly are ridiculously overpriced. Therefore Offaly are too big and MUST be backed.

So, with that in mind, are the prices right or are they wrong?

Bateman

Might have a small bet on Galway myself. It's a case of backing the price rather than the actual team. It does look very big; Kilkenny-Galway was a cracker in last year's championship semi-final.

Culchie

telecaster wrote:

For all you lads whinging about the ridiculously short priced Dubs: if that's your thinking on the odds, fair enough, but it automatically implies that Offaly are ridiculously overpriced. Therefore Offaly are too big and MUST be backed.

So, with that in mind, are the prices right or are they wrong?

Maybe a chill pill is required?

I didn't see anyone 'whinging', just people stating honest opinions, after all this is a discussion forum.
I didn't say I didn't think Dublin won't win, who knows, but is it worth putting €90 on to win €20 .... I don't think so.

telecaster

Don't mean to come across aggressive about it Culchie. Just trying to get people to think about what they are saying, there's lots of loose talk goes on around people calling prices too short. I'm making the point that every market is balanced, and if it's underpriced one side, then it must be overpriced the other.

In the big picture, it's not about backing winners, it's about backing at value prices - then profit is inevitable.

For what it's worth I agree that Dublin are too short this weekend and Offaly ARE slightly overpriced.

Anyone who thinks that Offaly will run Dublin close without beating them ought to be checking the handicap lines. Offaly +4 points are available at EVS generally.

[nicK]

telecaster wrote:

Don't mean to come across aggressive about it Culchie. Just trying to get people to think about what they are saying, there's lots of loose talk goes on around people calling prices too short. I'm making the point that every market is balanced, and if it's underpriced one side, then it must be overpriced the other.

no, every market is not balanced.. especially gaa..

if a favourite is underpriced it doesn't necessarily mean that the long-shot is overpriced as it depends on how close the overround is to 100%..

example: first match of the new premiership season for chelsea is against man city..
on betfair, (overround of 102%) man city are 15/1 to win the game while paddypower are giving 11/1 .. now i think 15/1 is most definately value, however, 11/1 is not..

typically, the overround for gaa matches in a bookies is well over 120%, taking value away from the longshots..

a way to avoid this whole "is it value or not" discussion would be to use betfair and judge for yourself..

telecaster

[nicK] wrote:

no, every market is not balanced.. especially gaa..

if a favourite is underpriced it doesn't necessarily mean that the long-shot is overpriced as it depends on how close the overround is to 100%..

example: first match of the new premiership season for chelsea is against man city..
on betfair, (overround of 102%) man city are 15/1 to win the game while paddypower are giving 11/1 .. now i think 15/1 is most definately value, however, 11/1 is not..

typically, the overround for gaa matches in a bookies is well over 120%, taking value away from the longshots..

a way to avoid this whole "is it value or not" discussion would be to use betfair and judge for yourself..

Nonsense Nick. You are ommiting the befair overround which is approx 5% of your winnings. Go and calculate it again.

The overround for a gaa match in a bookmakers is approx 112% not 120% - big difference.

All markets are balanced, often imperfectly - albeit with a theoretical profit built in to each outcome.

jobless

Kingp35 wrote:

Yeah if you plan on throwing your money away it is.

well they beat KK last year and i dont think KK have been reallt tested so far this year......11/4 is value.....

if i wanted to throw my money away id back leeds to get promoted next year

[nicK]

telecaster wrote:

Nonsense Nick. You are ommiting the befair overround which is approx 5% of your winnings. Go and calculate it again.

The overround for a gaa match in a bookmakers is approx 112% not 120% - big difference.

All markets are balanced, often imperfectly - albeit with a theoretical profit built in to each outcome.

yeah, your right, just worked out the overround for a few matches and it's generally around the 112% (horse racing is 120%).. still better value on betfair when the markets are liquid though, even with the 5% commission..

telecaster

[nicK] wrote:

still better value on betfair when the markets are liquid though, even with the 5% commission..

that's often the case, but I wouldn't accept it as a general rule. It would be a foolish punter that wouldn't check bookies prices before betting with betfair.

Betfair, and betdaq and all there impersonators most magnificent feat of marketing is that they do not show you commission adjusted prices.

I think some of the comparison sites (bestbetting/oddschecker) do adjust the exchanges prices to allow for commission however - but I'm open to correction there.

Not to nitpick, but the overround on a horserace will vary significantly depending on the quality of the race and the number of runners. It's not accurate to say that the overround on horseracing is consistently 120%

[nicK]

oh sorry, how foolish of me, i left out a word.. "generally"..

wb

No offence Telecaster, but I must disagree here. I have multiple online accounts and alwas shop around for prices, but betfair is almost always better. From my experience, a horse that is available at 5/1 with the bookies would be trading at about 13/2 or more on betfair. Similarly, when the odds go higher, the value gets better. A horse that is 20/1 with a bookie would be around 30-40/1 on betfair. It is generally much better value in my experience. Even after the 5% commission (which will reduce after time) this is still great value. The punter has never had it better.

For anyone not familiar with betfair, if you want to check the overround, just glance at the top of the betting. On the back side, it will be usually higher than 100, and on the lay side it will generally be lower. It will give a % figure. The nearer it is to 100%, the better value for the punter.

telecaster

wbailey wrote:

No offence Telecaster, but I must disagree here. I have multiple online accounts and alwas shop around for prices, but betfair is almost always better. From my experience, a horse that is available at 5/1 with the bookies would be trading at about 13/2 or more on betfair.

3.55 York today is the race of the day
At 10.15 here's how it looked on bestbetting.com

20 runners

Horses best price bookies = 11
Horses best price betfair (less 5% commission) = 9

The top 9 horses in the betting were best priced with the bookies.

You are dreaming, or swallowing too much marketing patter if you think that betfair are almost always the best price.

wb

telecaster wrote:

You are dreaming, or swallowing too much marketing patter if you think that betfair are almost always the best price.

I was just giving my opinion based on my experiences of shopping around.

Your example above may be correct, but that is neither here nor there, as it does not represent the overall picture. Anyone could search the markets looking for examples like that:

At the time of writing, the prices for salisbury (6:35) are:



Mozakhraf (favourite)
Best Bookie price: 11/2
Betfair Price: 7.6 (6.60/1)

Lets say you staked €10 with the bookie, and €10 with betfair. You would earn €55 profit with the bookie, and €62.70 with betfair AFTER 5% commission.

And for long shot backers:

Yorkies Boy
Best bookie price: 66/1
Betfair price: 139/1

Indian Gem
Best bookie price: 40/1
Betfair price: 59/1

In fact, a quick glance at oddschecker tells me that betfair offer better on almost all horses.


All Im saying, in general, I feel betfair is better value, but shopping around is also essential. No need to get on your high horse.

Kingp35

jobless wrote:

well they beat KK last year and i dont think KK have been reallt tested so far this year......11/4 is value.....

if i wanted to throw my money away id back leeds to get promoted next year