If I win this hand I'll be unstoppable!!

spectre

OK not long after the break of the Fitz double chance, I have a very respectable 6000 in chips. The villain in this hand is an elderly lady who has about 10K. The blinds are 100/200.

History:
We have clashed a few times in the last few orbits, twice I raised from LP and taken her big blind, the third time she called my raise, she checked an Ace rag rag board to me, I bet, she folds.

I think with her large stack, she calls most medium sized raises with any Ace, pairs and any two broadway cards.

The Hand:
She limps in mid position, I make it 800 to go from the button, folded to her who calls.
I have AK. I do not have the King of spades.

Flop (1900)

A 7 3 all spades

She insta-pushes

Action on me?

Ste05

Insta-Call... I presume you have KQs

Sorry couldn't help, but it's easier to analyse a hand if we know what you have...:D

spectre

fixed. 100 posts at last

Ollieboy

think its a call, cant really put her on a flush here and you have top pair top kicker in the flop, she would have check a flush or trips....?

spectre

Ollieboy wrote:

think its a call, cant really put her on a flush here and you have top pair top kicker in the flop, she would have check a flush or trips....?

She would almost certainly check with a flush, I think she would bet trips here, however I don't think she'd push. I'm almost sure she has some piece of it, she generally checks when she misses and often check calls when she hits. That's why I was really surprised when she open pushed. It was very unlike her from what I've seen.

The lady in question is Esther if that makes any difference

Ste05

Does she think you are a muppet?? (Not being rude or anything, but just wondering about what sort of table image you had, i.e. does she expect you to call this bet with TP?)

I think it would be an "it depends" situation if you think she'd expect you to call here with a pair of A's then I'd fold, but if she thought that you would never call this without at least a K or Q flush then I'd make a call.

But in general I think I'd just fold here, you'll still have a decent stack but then again I'm a pussy and am currently in Satellite mode, (damn Full Tilt satellites) where I wouldn't call this without Kxs even if I had AA, a gun was put to my head and I saw she only had a flush draw !!

EDIT: Just saw your post above, and going by your read, I might make a crying call, expecting to see a weaker A with a flush draw to go with it... but even then it's only about a 50/50 shot and a fold is probably the safest option, but if you win this pot, you should go very deep so might be worth the gamble if you're playing to win the tournament...

spectre

Ste05 wrote:

Does she think you are a muppet?? (Not being rude or anything, but just wondering about what sort of table image you had, i.e. does she expect you to call this bet with TP?)

I think it would be an "it depends" situation if you think she'd expect you to call here with a pair of A's then I'd fold, but if she thought that you would never call this without at least a K or Q flush then I'd make a call.

But in general I think I'd just fold here, you'll still have a decent stack but then again I'm a pussy and am currently in Satellite mode, (damn Full Tilt satellites) where I wouldn't call this without Kxs even if I had AA, a gun was put to my head and I saw she only had a flush draw !!

EDIT: Just saw your post above, and going by your read, I might make a crying call, expecting to see a weaker A with a flush draw to go with it... but even then it's only about a 50/50 shot and a fold is probably the safest option, but if you win this pot, you should go very deep so might be worth the gamble if you're playing to win the tournament...

I've only been at the table for the past two levels, I have only entered pots raising. I have shown down only one hand which was AQ - flopped two pair and doubled up. So, I'd imagine that my table image is quite solid - how little they know;)

As you say, folding is the safest option for sure, but I am playing to win. Is this too good a chance to pass up?

RoadSweeper

Its a great time to get a hefty chip stack, but your tournament life might last longer if you pass and fight another day.

Ste05

spectre wrote:

As you say, folding is the safest option for sure, but I am playing to win. Is this too good a chance to pass up?

If I thought that she wouldn't do this with a Set or Flush then I think I might call, it's probably (at worst) a 50:50 and if you win the Pot you're unlikely to get a better opportunity to take the whole thing down and if you lose then you can go home early, get some pints in or take some money off the fish downstairs....

It's very much how much you're willing to gamble TBH,

The problem is, can you ever be sure she doesn't have the flush, because she could make this bet with a flush thinking you'd never put her on it with the open push and call with AK, AQ, AJ and then you'd be kicking yourself later.

P.S. I don't know this Esther woman, so maybe you're sure or others will confirm that she'd make this move with a Flush/Set less than 5% of the time.

ecksor

spectre wrote:

I have AK. I do not have the King of spades.

Flop (1900)

A 7 3 all spades

She insta-pushes

Action on me?

I was at this table and I would have folded [*]. She might be on a bluff, but I'd seen her bet a hand that was practically the nuts on the flop in the same way earlier. She moved over 5k into a 1600 pot (well, more, but from your POV that's essentially what she did). Also, her quick peek at her cards before she pushed looked to me as if she liked what she saw before she did it.


[*] Mind you, I'm back to my "folding too much" habit lately. I'll swing back to calling too much soon and for the 2 days in between the two I'll look like an unstoppable poker genius. Just you watch!

careca

I'd fold it. If she calls raises with any A she could easily have hit two pair and doesn't want to give a free card to the flush.

charlesanto

spectre wrote:

She limps in mid position, I make it 800 to go from the button, folded to her who calls.
I have AK. I do not have the King of spades.
Flop (1900)
A 7 3 all spades
She insta-pushes
Action on me?

My read would be that she's protecting a made hand.
She's flopped a set or 2pairs, fold !

Hitman Actual

Just one question: how big an Ace does she need to raise pre-flop?

Anyway, in the cold light of day I'd get it very hard to fold this if she's got such a wide calling range pre-flop. The most likely hand that she pushes with that you're behind is A7, imo. Would she really push a set? Maybe for protection reasons as noted, but I think she also pushes with enough Ax or KsX, QsX, for you to be ahead. But of course when you're sitting there with your tournament on the line, it's a much tougher decision.

For some reason I cant put a face to Ester, it would be a big help if I knew her style.

Bandana boy

If this is ester from the Merrion then call its is QQ or KK with a spade and hope she doesnt get lucky

spectre

lenny_leonard wrote:

Just one question: how big an Ace does she need to raise pre-flop?

I have only seen her raise preflop once and that was with AJo in late position

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

spectre

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I think my point is that, ultimately, there is enough doubt to make you wonder if you really need to win that hand in order to win the tournament. And, given the decent position you worked yourself into, I think it would be correct to fold and wait for a better spot.

Having said all that, if you did throw your chips in and were ahead I would have to say fair play sir..!

It took me a while to make the decision. I really didn't put her on a flush or set. I believed that the most likely hand she could have would be two pair or most likely an Ace with a spade, something like A9 AT. I think that I would normally fold here, however at the time I was telling myself that I wanted to either win or go home early. You can imagine my shock to see her with AK, of course her King was a spade. She hit her spade on the turn and that was it for me.

In hindsight, I think it was a poor call. My equity is not good against her range, probably 25% at best. I normally fold here and continue to chip up as normal, there will be far better times to get all my chips in, especially in such a tournament where most of the players are poor.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

elderly ladies - v little bluffing (from my experience)

you could have folded and shown in order to build up your rock image for future bluffs.

A - with spade rag (as you point out) is probably the worst she is pushing with.