1/2 Extremely Deep Hand - River Decision

ianmc38

The villain in this hand is madmats a big winner on Tribeca @ 1/2.

Stacks:

Me 600ish
Villain covers

Villain opens for 7 UTG.

I call on the button with AdJd.

BB calls.

Flop (22)

AsJc9d

Check check, I bet pot. BB folds and villain calls.

Turn (66)

2s

Villain leads for 50. I call.

River (166)

6h

Villain leads for 80. I make it 200 (anyone dislike this raise?) He shoves.

Action please.

eoghan104

This is a very tough one in my opinion Ian. It looks very much like a set to me and a small percentage of the time AK or AQ.......... for me its a fold but a tough one. The only reason i may call is due to the large percentage of your stack being in the middle!

El Stuntman

nasty spot, you've what 300 or so in there.

looks like JJ, smells like JJ (or possibly 99)

fold, I doubt he would shove with AK

Ste05

I don't know madmats, due to not playing on Tribeca, but assuming he's a regular TAG/ SLAG then this looks like a fold now.

I can't really see how he can have less than AA or JJ here, unless there's some history between the two of you that you've left out,

Gholimoli

Ian,
Can I ask you why you waited till the river to reraise him?
He raises UTG ,checks the flop, then calls a pot sized bet out of position then leads the turn.
Man you should be scared here big time even more I think if he is a decent player.
I don’t think this is AK (seen as you said he is a winner) cuz he would have lead with flop other wise check/call bets and not check/call /lead /lead with a single pair.
You played the hand well up to the river but I don’t understand the river reraise.
If you suspected that you were ahead all along then why wait till the river to raise him and if you suspected that you may be behind why raise the river at all?
I think your beat here and you should fold. Looking at it quickly I think at this stage you have something like 300 left. You should fold.
But im only saying this because you said villain is decent.

willis

Hmm, his river bet of 80...he has got to assume you have an ace by the way you have played it...should he not bet more on the river with a set? He dosent expect you to reraise on the river, so his bet looks weak imo.Also he probably puts you on ace rag, I make a crying call and expect to see AK, however as Ste pointed out we need to know of any history between you 2

imalegend

why wait till river.....turn was the place to find out if he had ace king or jack/99...id suspect 99......has all the signs of set play...terrible raise on river...u had no info on the hand and u riase with a hand u dont know the strenght of against your oppents.....if he has his set you paid him off very easily and nicely...

ianmc38

I've played 2k hands with madmats so he knows my game quite well.

imalegend wrote:

why wait till river.....turn was the place to find out if he had ace king or jack/99...id suspect 99......has all the signs of set play

He is quite capable of firing 3-barrel bluffs and floats alot. I thought his check-call on the flop could have been another floating attempt.

imalegend wrote:

...terrible raise on river...u had no info on the hand and u riase with a hand u dont know the strenght of against your oppents.....if he has his set you paid him off very easily and nicely...

His bet on the river looks like a blocker. It didn't scream strength to me. I raised here as I thought I had the best hand. I think i'll often get paid off by worse hands here. AK sometimes, A9 etc.

I don't think it's terrible.

delanec8

There is no way you can be winning this hand against a solid player imo. Do you think he would rereraise the river with AK or a weaker 2 pair?? No chance imo. He has to believe you dont fold to this reraise very often so i think a bluff is out of the question too.

I think his range here is 99,JJ,AA. If he had 99/JJ i like to lead the flop. The way he played it makes me think he has AA and felt he had the deck crippled and could allow you to catch up.

willis

Ian I like your raise on river. If you reraise the turn then you have shown ultimate strength(since you potted the flop also) and give the villain a chance to fold hands you beat. By waiting till the river, you have induced him to bet 80. Now we expect him to just call with AK/AQ here but he has 3bet so we have a problem.

As u said, his 80 does look a blocker, as I said why would he ONLY bet 80 with a set here...he must put you on an ace at minmum and would expect a large bet to be called. His 3bet screams of 2pair, not a set, so I call

Ste05

willis wrote:

His 3bet screams of 2pair, not a set, so I call

What 2 pair?? This is an UTG raiser... I'd say his possible holdings are AA, JJ, (tiny chance of 99), and possibly AK or a very tricky move with some other random holding we beat....

I also don't mind the River bet that much as I think alot of hands will make a crying call here, but TBH I think his river bet looks more like a bet begging to be re-raised more so than a blocking bet. Hence why the blocker would work on me here, I'd have just called this bet personally against an unknown good player.

But since Ian has the history with the player, I'll assume that more often this bet is a Blocker, and hence why I don't mind the raise as I'd say AK, AQ will make a crying call... but I still fold now...

P.S. Is this 6-max??

fuzzbox

I like either a turn raise (folding a push), or a river call.

I think he has a set here very often, given the action.

If he is "blocking" the river, then he will fold to a raise, yet if he has a monster, then he will shove. Hard to see him shoving with a worse hand tho, so fold to the shove.

willis

Ste05 wrote:

TBH I think his river bet looks more like a bet begging to be re-raised more so than a blocking bet.

No it dosent beg to be reraised imo. Its weak, plain and simple. Wtf does he expect to be reraised by?????Ian just called the turn so he cant put Ian on monster so he aint gonna expect to be reraised. And if he does put Ian on a monster, like AJ, he bets MORE not less imo if he has a set, expecting Ian to do his stack.

Everybody says this screams a set, if I had a set I bet 140 on this river, if not more, expecting to be called by AK/AQ/AJ/A9.

fuzzbox

Betting half pot on a drawless board on the river, after that action is not weak.

fuzzbox

The funny thing is (in my head), that if the villain did indeed flop a set, that he would almost certainly get Ians stack if he had bet the flop, while he risks losing a lot of value by taking this line, as ian might now be persuaded to fold (or just call the river rather than raise).

Ste05

Fuzz got there first, EDIT: (First Post - I'm a slow typer... )

but in addition, the reason I'd say this bet is asking to be re-raised is because it is much more likely to get all of Ian's stack in the middle than a bigger bet will or a check raise will. And that is the aim for a set here, stacking TPTK 2 pair, etc. etc....

Also, there's quite a few hands that could re-raise here, it's quite obvious Ian has a hand he likes and so could often raise here. There was never a draw that Ian could be aiming for and the turn and River cards changed nothing, Ian liked his hand on the Flop, and on the Turn. So why not now, if you make a bet that looks like (a) a blocker or (b) weak...

I'm interested to hear the outcome of this one, did you call???

EDIT #2: I didn't see the board had a few draws on the flop... But TBH I don't think this hand looked like either player was drawing at any stage in the hand...

Gholimoli

ianmc38 wrote:

I've played 2k hands with madmats so he knows my game quite well.



He is quite capable of firing 3-barrel bluffs and floats alot. I thought his check-call on the flop could have been another floating attempt.



His bet on the river looks like a blocker. It didn't scream strength to me. I raised here as I thought I had the best hand. I think i'll often get paid off by worse hands here. AK sometimes, A9 etc.

I don't think it's terrible.

Ian,
floating out of position is a stupid thing to do specially when some one in position has called your raise and now leads a pot sizd bet.
i dont think any decent player would try to float here out of position .
and i dont think its a blocking bet cuz of the line he took from the start of the hand.

ianmc38

Well the result is a boring one because I folded.

He knew I liked my hand and that I wasn't bluffing with my river raise yet he was still happy to shove the rest of his stack in. For me this is 90% a set. 5% AJ and 5% air.

I don't think it's ever AK or a worse two pair....

fuzzbox

its more like 0% air.

willis

Pussy I probably fold aswell but his river bet dont look like a set imo. Surely betting so little aint profitable, as he cant really expect you to reraise here too often with hands you beat, in fact I often overbet here depending on villains ability to make tough laydowns

AmarilloFats

The river: Do you think he could call your raise with a hand you beat?
What are his raising standards UTG? J9/ A9??
If he has flopped a set on the flop I hate the way he played it.

Norwich Fan Rob

i believe he has AA and was afraid he had the deck crippled on the flop.
He bets 80 on the end, knowing either Ian has a smaller set and will raise, or cant be that strong, and 80s all he will get.

AmarilloFats

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

i believe he has AA and was afraid he had the deck crippled on the flop.
He bets 80 on the end, knowing either Ian has a smaller set and will raise, or cant be that strong, and 80s all he will get.

If villain believes that ian has a smaller set/two pair a significant amount of the time, he should have played to stack him..
If ian had just called bet on river villain would have succeeded in taking the MINIMum from hand.

ianmc38

Amarillo this was supposed to be a value raise if such a term exists. I think i'll often get looked up here by weaker hands. I've a strong hand and I don't think it fits into the "won't get called/raised by a hand we beat category"

BTW his raising standards UTG are from 23s to AA. He's an extremely tricky opponent who i usually avoid but one of my buddies was at the table, hence my deepstack

Norwich Fan Rob

amarillo, imo, on a dry board like that, any set will raise, and many weak hands will call if 80 is the bet. I dont like betting more, as then a set may only call and weakish As etc will fold.

fuzzbox

ian: I dont see how you can get looked up by weaker hands here that often.

Unless you regularly raise "blocking" bets on the river.

ianmc38

Fuzz with this villain perhaps not. Against most tribeca 1/2 players AK is the nuts and will call in an instant. Also with the texture of this board, I don't think he'll have a weaker hand that looks up my raise too often (A9 maybe, AK he drops immediately) so perhaps a call is better here.

What advantage does raising the turn give us? And what do we do if he 3-bets the turn? If he flat calls a turn raise and makes a 1/3rd pot value bet or something similar on the river do we pay it off?

AmarilloFats

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

amarillo, imo, on a dry board like that, any set will raise, and many weak hands will call if 80 is the bet. I dont like betting more, as then a set may only call and weakish As etc will fold.

villains river bet looks like a blocker and serves as a value, it may induce bluffs, it's cooks the dinner and walks the dawg..I like it.
But if villain has flopped set, and that is what ianmc put him on, on flop/turn he has played it to squeeze a little more value from top pair hands as opposed to trying to stack ianmc.


IF villains raising range is wide "23s to AA" ..Does he think he could stack you with A9 A6 J9...Would he play J9, A9 like this.?? Doubt it. I like your fold on river
BUt I prefer a raise to 160 or so on turn and prob fold to push....