Probability of an ace on the flop

Rockfish

Help needed to settle an argument. A mate reckons an ace will come on the flop 1 in 13 times. How the hell does he work this out and is hew right?
Thanks.

Rockfish

Obviously a stupid question but thanks anyway to all the exoerts....Anyone???

RoundTower

he is wrong.

delanec8

The probability of turning over one card and it being an ace is 1 in 13, so since the flop has 3 cards i believe he is talking through his ass, in my expert opinion.

Hitman Actual

Rockfish wrote:

Help needed to settle an argument. A mate reckons an ace will come on the flop 1 in 13 times. How the hell does he work this out and is hew right?
Thanks.

More info required. Is it exactly one Ace, or at least one Ace? Also, have you an ace in your hand or not?

Rockfish

The probability of turning over one card and it being an ace is 1 in 13, so since the flop has 3 cards i believe he is talking through his ass, in my expert opinion.

Thank you, that was my argument. Exact odds anyone?

gerry87

without an ace in your hand it would be

(4/50)+(4/49)+(4/48)= about 1/4

With an ace in your hand it would be

(3/50)+(3/49)+(3/48) = about 1/8

(I could be well off.... but hey i tried)

Rockfish

More info required. Is it exactly one Ace, or at least one Ace? Also, have you an ace in your hand or not?

Will conatin at least 1 ace and you dont have 1 in your hand

ecksor

48 non-aces in the deck, so you get no aces 48*47*46 times out of 52*51*50. That's about 78% roughly, so you get at least one ace approximately 22% of the time if you don't have one in your hand.

ecksor

Oops, of course there's only 50 cards left in the deck, so adjust as required. That makes the final result approximately 23%.

Hitman Actual

OK, worked this out fast, so might have missed something:

No. of flop combinations = 50C3 = 19600
----

Flop containing AAA = 4C3 = 4 combs
----

Flop containing AAx (x not an ace): x = 50-4 = 46
AA = 4C2 = 6 combs.
=> Flop containing AAx = 46*6 = 276 combs
----

Flop of Axx (xx not any Ace): A = 4
xx = (50-4)C2 = 46C2 = 1035.
=> Flop containing Axx = 4*1035 = 4140
----

Total number of flops containg at least an Ace = 4 + 276 + 4140 = 4420 combs.

=> Probability of this is 4420/19600 = 0.2256

=> Odds = 3.4/1

Hawk Eye

Rockfish wrote:

Will conatin at least 1 ace and you dont have 1 in your hand

Total Number of flops = 50*49*48 / 6! = 19600
Flops without an ace = 46*45*44 / 6! = 15180
Flops with at least an ace 19600-15180= 4420

=> probability is 4420/19600 *100 = 22.55%

EDIT: had a feeling someone would get in there first, well done lenny

DeadParrot

http://www.pokerplayernewspaper.com/viewarticle.php?id=1021&sort=topic

an interesting article on the subject

ligger

Probability of an A on flop when you hold KK. 85%:)

fuzzbox

ligger wrote:

Probability of an A on flop when you hold KK. 85%:)

I put it at closer to 100%

Bandana boy

fuzzbox wrote:

I put it at closer to 100%

100% against a decent player
0% against a muppet then 100% on turn or river against said muppet and his under tptK