FT hand against Chief Brody

spectre

Situation: Final table of Fitz double chance last night. I am known to half of the table as somewhat of a maniac from my play in the run-up to the FT. The other half have not played with me until now, among them is the eminent Chief Brody, King of Hold'em tournaments in the emporium. He has reached the FT with an above average stack. He has limped in to two recent pots in late position and taken both down with a flop bet. He is now second in chips so he's starting to feel very comfortable. He is second in chips when the following hand occurs.

Blinds: 1000/2000
Stacks: Me - 24.5K, Chief - 32K

I raise to 5K in MP with 66, the Chief in LP is the only caller. The flop comes down KK9 with two spades. I bet 5K, Brody is staring at me, there is a slight grin on his face, he makes the call.

The turn is an off-suit Ten. I check. The chief thinks for a couple of seconds and bets 10K


Action on me?

El Stuntman

run screaming out the door never to return?

ollyk1

The chief was in the Merrion last night until at least 9.30. He must have busted very quickly to get into the Fitz in time for the last entrants into the €50 DC.

I don't like the 5k raise preflop (raise more or fold).

I'm not mad about betting out on the flop here for the very reason the Chief will call and bet the turn with a wide range and I'm faced with this exact dilemna. Also you are betting 5k into a 13k pot. Not exactly a strong move. Better to check raise or check fold then bet 5k.

There are a lot of hands that beat you and yet the Chief is a notorious Gamblor. A nine or a ten are very possible. I probably lean towards a fold now.

Even if you are ahead you aren't a massive favourite because as long as he has a J or a Q or an A he has at least 12 outs and maybe a gut shot as well for another 10 outs. I'd have to reckon on average 14 outs if he's behind and you have 2 outs if he's ahead.

Gholimoli

what do you think you should do?
fold it,you have waisted half your stack but you have enough left to go in to push bot mode if you fold.
why are you trying to make the king of the calling stations laydown his hand with your weak holdings.
calling stations dont fold,the chief got his reputation for something.if he were to fold to a bet and a scary flop like that then he wouldnt be the chief.
you should have check/folded the flop turn and river unless you improved.

Bandana boy

ollyk1 wrote:

I don't like the 5k raise preflop (raise more or fold).

QUOTE]

i dont agree 5K is a fine number without committing you to the hand

When you get called and see this flop i would tend to check raise or check fold based on my feel
When he leads the 10k i think this means he has no K so you could push but he is probably too deeply ingrained

ollyk1

Bandana boy wrote:

ollyk1 wrote:

I don't like the 5k raise preflop (raise more or fold).

QUOTE]

i dont agree 5K is a fine number without committing you to the hand

My point exactly, he doesn't look committed because he's not. Prepare to be asked a question for all your chips if I'm at the table. This is not some deep stacked cash game. This is a shallow stacked FT. You've got to give the air of commitment to your raises. He's played the hand like he has a mid PP and thats exactly what he has. I personally don't like it. Each to their own.

Bandana boy wrote:

[
When you get called and see this flop i would tend to check raise or check fold based on my feel
When he leads the 10k i think this means he has no K so you could push but he is probably too deeply ingrained

The OP only has 4.5k more then the chief bet if he pushes. Therefore FE = 0. No probably about it.

Culchie

Fold Preflop

spectre

ollyk1 wrote:

I don't like the 5k raise preflop (raise more or fold).

The table is quite weak/tight for the most part, there are quite a few shortstacks out there with <12K. Therefore minraises preflop were usually taking the blinds. Therefore I don't believe the preflop raise to 5K is bad, I'm OOP with a weak holding at a full table so don't really want to put in a bigger raise.

ollyk1 wrote:

I'm not mad about betting out on the flop here for the very reason the Chief will call and bet the turn with a wide range and I'm faced with this exact dilemna. Also you are betting 5k into a 13k pot. Not exactly a strong move. Better to check raise or check fold then bet 5k.

I agree that I should've bet more on the flop, 10K would've been about right, however had I bet this much, I would have over half my stack in the middle. This highlights the problem of playing a hand like this, like you say raise more or fold preflop is the better option - fold being superior I now believe

ianmc38

The Chiefs one strength which often backfires is detecting weakness. He has called my raises when he has a stack with hands as bad as 25suited. If he feels you're weak by checking he will bet whether he has K9 or 35o.

I fold here though. Even if you push and are ahead he will outdraw you. There is no way you'll win this hand. Even if he needs runner runner, the river will become two cards giving him said runner runner.

Fold.

ollyk1

spectre wrote:

The table is quite weak/tight for the most part, there are quite a few shortstacks out there with <12K. Therefore minraises preflop were usually taking the blinds. Therefore I don't believe the preflop raise to 5K is bad, I'm OOP with a weak holding at a full table so don't really want to put in a bigger raise.

Maybe this is a style thing. I raise more with both Ax, mid pp and TT+ at the FT. If the blinds are short I bet enough to put them all-in so the table knows I'm willing to show down. Or else I fold. It depends on the hand and whats been going on.

You were at the FT so you are in a better spot to judge but I don't like it.

spectre wrote:

I agree that I should've bet more on the flop, 10K would've been about right, however had I bet this much, I would have over half my stack in the middle. This highlights the problem of playing a hand like this, like you say raise more or fold preflop is the better option - fold being superior I now believe

Hang on are you coming around to my way of thinking???

spectre

Gholimoli wrote:

what do you think you should do?
fold it,you have waisted half your stack but you have enough left to go in to push bot mode if you fold.
why are you trying to make the king of the calling stations laydown his hand with your weak holdings.
calling stations dont fold,the chief got his reputation for something.if he were to fold to a bet and a scary flop like that then he wouldnt be the chief.
you should have check/folded the flop turn and river unless you improved.

The Chief has won a few pots already by having flop checked to him. In this case check-folding the flop is equivalent to folding before the Chief even acts, if I check, he will most certainly bet.

This is not a clear fold imho. I believe that he will call the flop bet with a huge range of hands, many of which I DO beat. I do not believe he has a King and am 80% sure that he doesn't have a 9 either. The Ten is a bad card for me and sure, he may have one, but this is Chief Brody we're talking about, am I really not getting the odds to call considering his range?

Culchie

You should just fold preflop.

If you are intent on stealing, then steal, don't price him in to call, however if you get called, any flop continuation bet is going to commit you.

If you are shortstacked, 66 is good enough to stick them all in preflop, although the way you outlined the stack sizes, this is not the time to do that IMO.

This thread and the tricky situation you have found yourself in, is a classic example of why you should just muck them preflop.

Hitman Actual

What's wrong with flat-calling pre-flop? I might just do that here. I definately dont like putting much money in pre-flop with 66 in MP with this stack size.

ianmc38 wrote:

I fold here though. Even if you push and are ahead he will outdraw you. There is no way you'll win this hand. Even if he needs runner runner, the river will become two cards giving him said runner runner.

LOL, I like.

ollyk1

spectre wrote:

The Chief has won a few pots already by having flop checked to him. In this case check-folding the flop is equivalent to folding before the Chief even acts, if I check, he will most certainly bet.

This is not a clear fold imho. I believe that he will call the flop bet with a huge range of hands, many of which I DO beat. I do not believe he has a King and am 80% sure that he doesn't have a 9 either. The Ten is a bad card for me and sure, he may have one, but this is Chief Brody we're talking about, am I really not getting the odds to call considering his range?

If you think you are winning more then 40% of the time it's a call otherwise I'd fold.

.6 * 2/44 = 2.7% plus .4 * 30/44 = 27.3% = 30% which is greater then the pot is laying you 14.5k to win 52k (~28% ultiamtely as there is no chance he's folding).

This leaves aside the thorny issue of whether getting youself bogged down in this situation was a good use of an above average stack at the FT.


On balance I think I'm with Gholi and I fold and start pushing.

spectre

Culchie wrote:

You should just fold preflop.

If you are intent on stealing, then steal, don't price him in to call, however if you get called, any flop continuation bet is going to commit you.

If you are shortstacked, 66 is good enough to stick them all in preflop, although the way you outlined the stack sizes, this is not the time to do that IMO.

This thread and the tricky situation you have found yourself in, is a classic example of why you should just muck them preflop.

Couldn't agree more, I would normally muck 66 preflop in this situation. Last night however, I had been playing far looser than normal for me (although I would normally have position on my side) and 66 was monsterous in comparison to the muck that I had been wielding for most of the evening.

Culchie

lenny_leonard wrote:

What's wrong with flat-calling pre-flop? I might just do that here. I definately dont like putting much money in pre-flop with 66 in MP with this stack size.

I wouldn't flat call for 8% of stack, especially here when any raise is either going to drag you in deeper or be a waste of chips at business end of tournament.

fobster

lenny_leonard wrote:

What's wrong with flat-calling pre-flop? I might just do that here. I definately dont like putting much money in pre-flop with 66 in MP with this stack size.

Yeah that's what I'd do, if you have a low pair call the big blind to see the flop then you can work with that but I wouldn't go raising pre-flop or calling a raise pre-flop with 66.

I'd say the other guy probably has a 9 with a jack or queen suited.

Hitman Actual

Culchie wrote:

I wouldn't flat call for 8% of stack, especially here when any raise is either going to drag you in deeper or be a waste of chips at business end of tournament.

Well, at a tough table I'm going to fold this normally. But at a weak tight table as described, I dont mind limping for set value. If I'm reraised pre-flop, I have the option (depending on the raise conditions) of reraising and winning a nice pot pre-flop. Or I can fold to a raise pre-flop (again depending on the raise conditions), and still have 11BBs, which is ok for a SE tournament.

Of the other options, I would imagine that pushing is very marginal from MP, but 66 here is too good to just simply fold, imo.

5starpool

Look how Lenny assumes it is the SE just cause Chief is playing. Stop skimming Derek!!!!

Anyways, I am with Olly on this one. I raise more preflop or fold. Just because minraises are winning most hands doesn't mean the Chief will lay down for an extra 3k, regardless of his holding. By playing this hand if I have raised more preflop I go all in on the flop generally taking away Chiefs option to bluff bet when you are not in a position to call an all in really but can play one.

ollyk1

lenny_leonard wrote:

Well, at a tough table I'm going to fold this normally. But at a weak tight table as described, I dont mind limping for set value. If I'm reraised pre-flop, I have the option (depending on the raise conditions) of reraising and winning a nice pot pre-flop. Or I can fold to a raise pre-flop (again depending on the raise conditions), and still have 11BBs, which is ok for a SE tournament.

Of the other options, I would imagine that pushing is very marginal from MP, but 66 here is too good to just simply fold, imo.

Set value?? C'mon Lenny its raise properly or fold. Set value doesn't enter into it. It's a weak table so take advantage don't join them for some passive lets see who gets the nicest cards and decide the money that way fun.

You look down at your cards and decide I'm out of position so I'll fold. Or you say I haven't played too many hands I'm going to steal the blinds with this hand so i'll raise. Even if by some miracle you hit your set you probably won't get payed. Limping at a shallow stacked FT is not good. Play less hands, play the ones you do harder.

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

Well, at a tough table I'm going to fold this normally. But at a weak tight table as described, I dont mind limping for set value. If I'm reraised pre-flop, I have the option (depending on the raise conditions) of reraising and winning a nice pot pre-flop. Or I can fold to a raise pre-flop (again depending on the raise conditions), and still have 11BBs, which is ok for a SE tournament.

Of the other options, I would imagine that pushing is very marginal from MP, but 66 here is too good to just simply fold, imo.

Lenny
Open limping is generally not good play and even less so when the blinds are large relative to your stack (like in the FT situation) and even less so in weak tight table as described here by OP.
The reason is that your giving up the chance to win your self the pot by not raising and also creating a large pot so offering good odds to those who are yet to act behind you.it gets worse when your hand is a weak one that looses value on the flop and your out of position for the remaining betting streets.
Set values don’t apply here that much simply because the stacks are not deep enough. the folding equity you get by a raise is better than the implied odds you have by flopping a set.
For the reasons above its superior play to open/raise with a hand like 66 rather than open/limp if you want to play it at all.

spectre

ollyk1 wrote:

If you think you are winning more then 40% of the time it's a call otherwise I'd fold.

.6 * 2/44 = 2.7% plus .4 * 30/44 = 27.3% = 30% which is greater then the pot is laying you 14.5k to win 52k (~28% ultiamtely as there is no chance he's folding).

This leaves aside the thorny issue of whether getting youself bogged down in this situation was a good use of an above average stack at the FT.


On balance I think I'm with Gholi and I fold and start pushing.

Good analysis. I had a similar thought process and pushed for 4.5K more. I beleved myself to be ahead more than 40% though, my figure was closer to 75% to be honest. I think he could've had alot of Ace rag hands, any flush draw, possibly a gutshot. I was almost positive that he had missed the flop so the only hand I was afraid of was a hand containing a Ten or a made straight or 77 88.

When I pushed the table was quite stunned, the Chief nealy fell off his chair. He dwelled for about a minute before making a crying call for 4.5K into a pot of 47.5K with a pair of two's in the hole. LOL

Hitman Actual

Wow, no one likes flat-calling here. I need to have a re-read of this thread cos for some reason (i.e. I'm a donk!) I dont think it's too bad.

ollyk1

5starpool wrote:

Look how Lenny assumes it is the SE just cause Chief is playing. Stop skimming Derek!!!!

Anyways, I am with Olly on this one. I raise more preflop or fold. Just because minraises are winning most hands doesn't mean the Chief will lay down for an extra 3k, regardless of his holding. By playing this hand if I have raised more preflop I go all in on the flop generally taking away Chiefs option to bluff bet when you are not in a position to call an all in really but can play one.

The Chief isn't in the blinds Dom. He's in LP. You'll have to read more closely yourself!! I know its astounding that with the Chief calling the BB didn't call too but hey we weren't playing Dom !! :rolleyes: This hand is messy from start to finish and not in a good way.

ollyk1

spectre wrote:

Good analysis. I had a similar thought process and pushed for 4.5K more. I beleved myself to be ahead more than 40% though, my figure was closer to 75% to be honest. I think he could've had alot of Ace rag hands, any flush draw, possibly a gutshot. I was almost positive that he had missed the flop so the only hand I was afraid of was a hand containing a Ten or a made straight or 77 88.

When I pushed the table was quite stunned, the Chief nealy fell off his chair. He dwelled for about a minute before making a crying call for 4.5K into a pot of 47.5K with a pair of two's in the hole. LOL

Classic!!:D WP sir. I'd admire that you went with your read and conviction. I hope you won it after this.

5starpool

ollyk1 wrote:

The Chief isn't in the blinds Dom. He's in LP. You'll have to read more closely yourself!!

Dammit, there goes my high horseedness and uppityedness. I have 0% slag equity with Lenny for a while.

ianmc38

Hmm. I'm getting Deja vu here. The Chief played an almost identical hand against Washout a few weeks ago when he went called all in on a KK9xx board with the ducks.

Obviously he hit the 2 spectre right?

Hitman Actual

5starpool wrote:

Dammit, there goes my high horseedness and uppityedness. I have 0% slag equity with Lenny for a while.

I dont know, after my analysis in this hand, everyone is getting great odds for that for a while.

For the record, I rarely limp at a final table, although I remember I did once when I had Aces three-handed. (Olly was one of the players left, but the other guy proceeded to flop two pair and bust me!). So usually if I limp at a final table I have AA or KK. Add that to your notes.

Bandana boy

ollyk1 wrote:

You look down at your cards and decide I'm out of position so I'll fold. Or you say I haven't played too many hands I'm going to steal the blinds with this hand so i'll raise. Even if by some miracle you hit your set you probably won't get payed. Limping at a shallow stacked FT is not good. Play less hands, play the ones you do harder.

This is obviously a style thing I fold a lot OOP and raise a lot in postion when blinds get to this point in a tourney

When raising I dont feel the need to rasie to more than 2.5/3 blinds
what is calling 3 is calling 4 or 5 at this point(with possible exeption of BB who is now oop)
I dont need to get involved in every reraise i can judge them on there merits as i am not tied to the hand

So if i check the chief is going to bet regardless of hand ? Excellent

then I think raise to 5 good move lets see if anyone other than the chief fancies his hand and check raise all in on the flop is surely +ev
Where as pushing pre you win blinds of 3K at a risk of 24 you get it wrong tournament over
Yes you have less decisons your way but when is a decison point a bad thing ?
unless of course your worried about your ability to make a good decision :-)

ollyk1

lenny_leonard wrote:

I dont know, after my analysis in this hand, everyone is getting great odds for that for a while.

For the record, I rarely limp at a final table, although I remember I did once when I had Aces three-handed. (Olly was one of the players left, but the other guy proceeded to flop two pair and bust me!). So usually if I limp at a final table I have AA or KK. Add that to your notes.

I remember it well Lenny!

Dave Hall had a decent chip lead (~40%) and you were 2:1 ahead of me on chips. I went to get everyone a drink (Paula was thirsty and I'm a gent) while this hand played out and came back to the table €500 richer. Sweet.

I never limp with Aces at the FT (not that I remember anyway). Too hard to fold at a shallow stacked FT. Whatever about earlier in the game I don't do it later on plus it would be very inconsistent in terms of my final table image.

Washout

ianmc38 wrote:

Hmm. I'm getting Deja vu here. The Chief played an almost identical hand against Washout a few weeks ago when he went called all in on a KK9xx board with the ducks.

Obviously he hit the 2 spectre right?

lol he sure loves those 2s.
blinds i think were were 800/1.5k, 3 handed, he has about 65k i had 35k or so.
i had KQs in that hand flop came K9x.
i check hoping for a bet. he checks!.
turn was another 9. I check...he senses weakness and bets 4k.
I raise to 12k.
he puts me all in and i actually said to him that your range is way to wide and called. he turns over the ducks.

ollyk1

Bandana boy wrote:

This is obviously a style thing I fold a lot OOP and raise a lot in postion when blinds get to this point in a tourney

When raising I dont feel the need to rasie to more than 2.5/3 blinds
what is calling 3 is calling 4 or 5 at this point(with possible exeption of BB who is now oop)
I dont need to get involved in every reraise i can judge them on there merits as i am not tied to the hand

So if i check the chief is going to bet regardless of hand ? Excellent

then I think raise to 5 good move lets see if anyone other than the chief fancies his hand and check raise all in on the flop is surely +ev
Where as pushing pre you win blinds of 3K at a risk of 24 you get it wrong tournament over
Yes you have less decisons your way but when is a decison point a bad thing ?
unless of course your worried about your ability to make a good decision :-)

I never said push preflop I said raise more. I did say to consider check raising on the flop didn't I? I have played the chief before and thats why I like the move.

Hitman Actual

ollyk1 wrote:

I remember it well Lenny!

Dave Hall had a decent chip lead (~40%) and you were 2:1 ahead of me on chips. I went to get everyone a drink (Paula was thirsty and I'm a gent) while this hand played out and came back to the table €500 richer. Sweet.

I never limp with Aces at the FT (not that I remember anyway). Too hard to fold at a shallow stacked FT. Whatever about earlier in the game I don't do it later on plus it would be very inconsistent in terms of my final table image.

I'ts a big exaggeration to say I limp with big pairs at a final table, but in that case I was small blind and was hoping to trap Dave Hall. Flop comes down, I lead out, he min-raises, I move all-in far too quickly, and realise as I'm pushing the chips across the line that he's hit the flop hard.

So I'm €500 less well off (it's laughing at me from your wallet), and I also need a new pair of shoes after a serious bout of kerb-kicking.

spectre

ianmc38 wrote:

Obviously he hit the 2 spectre right?

To my amazement the river was a blank and my monster holds up. The Chief was crippled and went out soon afterwards.

When it got down to 5 players the shortstack in the SB promised to go all in on the blind if it was folded to him, I was the CL so I promised I'd call on the blind. To add a bit of excitement we said we'd make a spectacle of ourselves by sticking our cards to our foreheads as the board was being dealt, he had Q2o, he assured me that my hand looked good, the flop comes down QJX, I told him that he had top pair, he tells me that he's not out of the woods yet. The turn is a heart, he cries in pain, apparently I now have an open ended straight draw as well as flush draw. Everyone on the cash tables are looking over wondering what these retards are doing with cards held to their foreheads but we don't care - the excitement is killing us, just deal the river dealer!! The river is a non-heart - but it's an 8 which fills my straight and my 910h is good. Quality entertainment, undoubtedly the most enjoyable tournament I have ever played.

A deal was suggested at this stage but I was having none of it, feeling very sure of myself. Down to 3 players and again a deal was proposed by the other two, this time I was only a marginal CL but again I refuse. It's 1200 for 1st, 600 for 2nd and 300 for 3rd. Two races later (I had the pairs on both occasions and I'm out in 3rd) Fcek it anyway

ianmc38

spectre wrote:

It's 1200 for 1st, 600 for 2nd and 300 for 3rd. Two races later (I had the pairs on both occasions and I'm out in 3rd) Fcek it anyway

The person who refuses the deal always gets knocked out first. ALWAYS.

spectre

ianmc38 wrote:

The person who refuses the deal always gets knocked out first. ALWAYS.

Damnit! If only I knew that last night. Now the other two get to say "HAHA! Serves him right for trying to defy the majority. Huzzah!!!"

ionapaul

ianmc38 wrote:

The person who refuses the deal always gets knocked out first. ALWAYS.

Olly is the exception to this.

The jam-bot

*Olly, edited my blog to detail the SE FT hand you were wondering about!

ianmc38

Speaking of blog Paul, who's Mr Chuckles? And you playing tonight seeing as there's no footy on?

stephenoleary

ollyk1 wrote:

...... don't join them for some passive lets see who gets the nicest cards and decide the money that way fun.

Suddenly, my problems all become clear.......:D