Cash Games and Variance

Iago

I understand variance, at least when I'm away from a poker table and not on the receiving end of Bad Beat # 47,456 I do. See when I'm at the table having suffered Bad Beat # 47,456, emotion takes over and I find it hard to logically think about anything.

I know that Poker is a long term game, and that "if you get your money in, with those cards again and again you'll end up in profit" I get that too, however how often will you get a muppet to get the same cards in the same position against you and commit their entire stack when you have them drawing dead? How long will it take for that hand to be profitable?

To avail of FT's reload bonus and to ease my way back into the game I deposited some money and sat down at two .25/.50 games. Within 10 minutes I had dropped two buyins after the following two hands (please feel free to criticise my play as I must be doing something wrong!)

Hand 1

I'm in MP1 with AA, UTG limps and I make it $2.50 to go.
MP2 calls
button calls
everyone else folds

Pot = $8.75

Flop

Jh 7d 3s

I bet $6
MP2 calls
Button calls

Pot = $26.75

Turn
Ks

I bet $15
MP2 goes all-in for $14 more
Button calls and is all-in for $20
I call

Main Pot = $86.75
Side Pot (MP1+MP2) = $18

River
Qc

I have AA
MP2 turns over Jd Qs
Button mucks

MP2 wins main pot with two pair J's and Q's
MP2 wins side pot with two pair J's and Q's

1) Should I have raised more preflop?
2) Should I have bet more on the flop or turn?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Second hand

I'm on the button with KK ($55 stack), 3 limpers and I raise to $3.50
Both blinds call, and one of the limpers raises to $10 (he has $72 behind)
I raise to $25, the blinds fold and he pushes for the rest...screams of AA doesn't it?

I make a crying call and hit the reload button..

He turns over AJo and spikes an A on the flop to take the pot.

1) Should I just push the first time when it comes back to me after being raised to $10?
2) Ignoring the outcome of this hand, do you fold to the push preflop?


Getting to the point of the post, outside of getting some welcome criticism and feedback, what do you estimate are the odds of another muppet getting AJo and pushing for his entire stack preflop when I'm holding KK and not outdrawing me?

If I lose a buyin each time I'm outdrawn in this position and I have a starting BR of 20 buyins what is the deferrential in terms of number of hands between when I go broke and when variance balances out and gives me my payday??

This is not a moan or rant post, I'm looking for advice on how I played the hands and how people get their heads around the limitations of the simple variance concept..as it turns out I ended the session up over 2 buyins after hitting a nice run of sets and full houses and a (even if I do say so myself) masterful bluff with K high to take down a $60 pot!

ianmc38

Hand 1: Preflop raise to 5xBB is fine. With all the draws on the turn I prefer to bet the pot.

Hand 2: Reraise to 25 is fine. Add him to your buddy list and follow himas he's obviously a donk if he'll commit his entire stack preflop with AJ.

UL. Variance is a bee atch.

Benglian

I have become more and more philosophical about variance recently.
After all, I can't control the cards that come out!
All I can do is get my money into the pot +EV, then the rest is in the laps of the Poker gods.
It can be hard sometimes.
My last session on Interpoker £1/£2 I got battered 3 times by the same guy.
Once he called a Raise OOP w 94off, and called my pot bets to the river with bottom pair(while I hit an A with my AQ), where he hit another 4. I paid him off.
Twice more he made similar gutshots etc.
The killer was when I got him all in on the turn on a board of 9JQK, when he was holding TQ to my AT.
Lovely I though, my patience pays off in the end! Money back! YES!
Only for the river to come A for a split pot.
I will admit to sitting out then and going and taking a good few deep breaths on the balcony for 5 minutes, to calm myself down.
But the reason this has not fazed me is that the one session before I found myself playing for my stack on the flop with 88 on an underboard against AA, and I spiked an 8!
Then I was allin again with AT on an A36 flop against A3, only to hit a T on the turn!
So it IS swings and roundabouts, though I know the feeling when someone hit a 20-1 shot against you. You think 'When the hell am I gonna be in that situation again, and playing for my stack, and against a muppet who calls!'
The trick is REMEMBERING the times you sucked out on someone.....
They usually go down the memory hole....

Ardent

I had the scary experience a while back of tiliting off weeks of grinding in just a couple of hours, due in no small part to a series of horrendously bad beats. I took a break from poker, thought a lot about what happened and now I'm back with a vengeance and playing the best poker of my life.

I'm now unbelievably serene when I suffer a bad beat, I don't let it affect me anymore. I just reload, wait for the right spot and get my money back off the donkey, with interest. I know it's a cliche but all you can do is get your money in the middle with the best hand. In the long run you will be rewarded.