Its got to beeeeeeeeeeee perfect

fuzzbox

Two tourney hands

I think I need to remember the difference between $$ equity and Chip equity.

STT - 7 handed
Blinds 100/200

Earlier on this level, I raised to 500, villain called in the BB, flop came A94r (I had Q9), villain checked, I bet half pot, villain thought for some time and called, turn 2o, check/check, river A, villain bet smallish, I called like a moron, villain tabled AA.

Since that time, I have moved-in about 5 times. I have been called twice by a shorty, and I had AQ, and his 77 stood up, and by a guy who I covered, and I had JJ and it stood up Vs AT.

I have 3000, villain covers.

I open in MP to 500 (this is the first time in a while that I have not open pushed) with 66, folded to villain in the BB, who pushes. I call quick

Comments?


2nd one
4-handed, blinds 300/600
I am cl with 7.5k. I am now in hyper aggro mode. I am shoving, and raising and so on very very often. Nobody has played back at me or called me yet.

I am first to act
I open to 2000 QsTs, button shoves for 5.5k total. I count up the pot, and call.

Comments ?

cardshark202

Hand 1: Not so sure this is a call. But I guess its 7-handed so he's more likely to do this with an unpaired hand as well as bigger pair. Yeah call seems fine though I haven't done the maths.

Hand 2: Definate call.

RoundTower

I think the first one is a fold. I don't think you can rule out him having a big pair just on the basis of the other hand. If it is a call, then raising to 500 is bad.

Second one easy call. Normally in this situation (STT bubble) it is important to know the stack sizes of the other two players. But I think you should call here whatever they are.

Goodluck2me

the first one is a call, even though you not open pushin can appear stronger and he still pushed, your quite likely behind, but enough of a chance to be up against 2 overcards.
The second one i think your best not to be in the pot with QTs, your very rarely goin to be ahead here, and if you have to call after raising so much your basically pot committing yourself with at best an average hand.

Hitman Actual

I'm dont really play a lot of STTs, but I'm not sure that the bubble call is as clear-cut as has been made out. Fuzzbox is talking about the CEV/$EV decision, and CEV is definately correct (your percentage pot odds are 29%, and QTs is 35% or so here, probably more). So $EV-wise, 35% of the time our "share" of the prize pool goes way up, but the other 65% it goes to zero. Thing is, I cant remember how to do the maths here, but you need the other stack sizes anyway.

HJ used to be the main STT guy on here, a response from him would be interesting.

Edit: Sorry, Fuzzbox has villain covered so when you lose if you call, you still have a share in the prize-pool. Still, I dont think it's a clear call.

fuzzbox

Results:
In the first one the villain had AJ, and he hit 2 pair. I think I should fold. I happened to be right this time, but as RT says, he could easily have 77-JJ here.

In the 2nd one, villain had 66, and was none too happy when I hit something to beat him. I think this is a call, but an argument can certainly be made for folding. The other stacks were around 3-4k. If I called and lost I would still be on 2k, and I was really far more aggro than they were, so even then I still fancied my chances, and if I called and won, I would have a monster stack. I won this STT.

Norwich Fan Rob

i fold the first one, and in the 2nd one, i u are not passing to any re raise, u may as well push yourself, u dont really want to be making tricky decisions or seeing flops with QT. (i woulda folded both hands in the first place).

Hitman Actual

I'm the only person who said that hand 2 wasn't a clear call, so I'd better back it up with some maths. Assuming that the other stacks not mentioned are the SB and BB with 3500 each, the stacks before the hand is dealt is:

FB: 7500
Villain: 5500
SB: 3500
BB: 3500

When the action takes place in the hand, ICM (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html) gives the following results:

Fold:
FB: 5500 : 0.279
Villain: 8400 : 0.341
SB: 3200 : 0.198
BB: 2900 : 0.182

Call and win:
FB: 13900 : 0.434
SB: 3200 : 0.287
BB: 2900 : 0.279

Call and lose:
FB: 2000 : 0.159
Villain: 11900: 0.402
SB: 3200 : 0.226
BB: 2900 : 0.213

A split is negligible here, so Im going to ignore it. So taking QT as being a 40% dog here (and that's being generous, I think), calling gives:

0.4*0.434 + 0.6*0.159 = 0.269

This is slightly lower than the 0.279 for folding, so a call is marginal. If QT is much worse than 40% here, I think a good argument can be made for folding.

RoundTower

Good analysis, this is with payout structure 50/30/20? I didn't realise it was so close. I suppose the key is that your $ equity can never be better than 0.5 however many chips you accumulate.