Royal Ascot - Day Three

fade2black

Sjones stole the show yesterday with a superb 4 timer. Let's see what we can do today.

2:35

2 year old races are always tough but we'll anaylise some of who I believe are the leading contenders and see if we can come up with something.

Sonny Red
Won a decent 2yo maiden in Newmarket this year (george washington came third in the same race last year) but the horses he beat in that one didn't go on to do much. However, he went on to win a valuable listed stakes where he beat the decent chief editor by 2 lengths. (Chief Editor had previously just gone down to Gilded who won well today). That form looks really well for this race. Beat Conquest who franked the form earlier on in the Ascot week also.

Hoh Mike

From the team that struck with Red Evie in the last on Wednesday, Bell and Spencer will be hoping to pick things up in the first on Thursday. His first win came in a decent class 4 event where the two immediately behind him went on to frank the form. He went on to take a class 2 race in a canter but the opposition really wasn't up to much and Hoh Mike may be vulnerable to some talented improving types today.

City of Tribes

A really interesting Irish contender here. Ger Lyon's horse won a decent maiden in Tip earlier this month finishing in front of a later winner Miss beatrix. Also beat Anna Rocks in that race and I would have expected Anna Rocks to frank the form at Leopardstown on Wednesday night but although she ran well...she didn't win. However, you can only beat who's put in front of you and City of Tribes really impressed me this day. Could be a decent each way option at a big price.

Dutch Art

Another interesting contender, made even more interesting by the run of the horse he beat in his maiden, simply perfect. That one ran a cracker in ascot on wednesday to chase Gilded home. The horse in third, spoof master, won a pretty ordinary brocklesby so it's probably best to forget him for form purposes.

Holdin Foldin

The presence of this horse just reminds me how difficult this race is. He was well backed when he hacked up on his maiden. Maybe he didn't beat the best of opposition but the way he won suggests he could be a serious horse. how serious....well no one knows. We'll know more after this.

So, for me, these are the ones to concentrate on. I'm going to go with Sonny Red based on everything we know so far but as I said...this is a toughie.


3:10

Another tough race, and another fillies race, which in my opinion always complicates things because the women always have a habit of having off days. However, there's only one horse here that I'm interested in and that's Scottish Stage. Regarded as being one of Stoute's leading three year olds and after I listened to Mr. Stoute talk with very little confidence before her last run, in which she still won I stuck her in the notebook. Her only defeat thus far came behind race for the stars and that's certainly nothing to be ashamed of. I'm not going to look too hard at the other candidates as I'm very keen on this one.


3:50

The biggie. No westerner this year so many will be looking at last year's runner up, Distinction. I'm not so sure though. He beat Balkan Knight which showed that he's in good form and apparently he will come on for that run. Personally, I think that Distinction would have much preffered York last year and Ascot will be more of a test for him. It's dangerous to dismiss distinction because himself and westerner did finish clear of the rest last year.

Yeats has never tackled a trip this extreme so I couldn't be having him. Sergeant Cecil is all heart and although never tacking 2.4 he'll probably like it. I think the biggest danger to Distinction, and the one i'll be siding with, will be reefscape. A thorough stayer, the french horse has proved his class in staying races and he's one of the only ones in the race (with Distinction) who we know will stay the distance.

So, for me it comes down to two, Reefscape and Distinction. At the time of writing, to be honest, I'm still not sure...Distinction's 2nd last year is the best form on offer but will he reporduce that on a track where he has thus far failed to notch a win. (Ascot much stiffer track) Will probably side with Reefscape.


To be continued.

fade2black

4:25

Seeing as though the 1st 7 home in the Royal Hunt Cup were drawn between 2-11 it's best that we concentrate on those. This brings in -

Master Pegasus
Motaraqeb
Jumbajukiba
Direct Debit
Easy Air
Plum Pudding
Sir Gerard
Regal Royale
Dark Islander
Layazaal

I think Sir Gerard could be the one here. His runs this season, where he's either won or just failed to get up, have promised a lot and I think there's a big win in him and tomorrow's 34k could be just the ticket. Spencer is having a fine Ascot so far and the draw should guarantee that he doesn't need to find too much luck at the business end of the race (as has often troubled this horse in the past).


4:55

Before we look in detail at this race I'd like to have a look at one horse in particular:

Deepwater Bay

Andrew Balding really rates this horse and after he won at kempton, beating 4-9 shot escape clause, he was thrown in at the deep end against 6th in the Guineas, Final Verse. He put final verse to the test that day, eventually going down by 2 lengths but finishing 7 lengths clear of the 3rd horse. Now...this may not mean a whole lot, but Final Verse finished ahead of Arraafa (who ran so well to win on tuesday)at the end of last year and in the context of this listed race that form looks interesting (if only that). Basic point of all that - Deepwater could be a dark each way horse.

My win pick though is Purple Moon of Michael Stoute's. Stoute and Kinane own the Ascot maating and this is a horse who is steadily improving. Up to this class for his last race and was just beaten into 2nd (11-10) after pulling way too hard at the start of the race. He should learn from that and if he can relax himself in this race he'll take all the beating.


The last race looks a puzzle and if i'm arsed I'll have a look at it tomorrow.

Sizzler

I have Dark Islander in my horse tracker which runs in the 425.

The tissue on him is 20/1...thing is Im not sure why I have in my horse tracker But hey we'll find out tomorrow if hes any use!

Crumbs

fade2black wrote:

The last race looks a puzzle and if i'm arsed I'll have a look at it tomorrow.

You don't need to look through all 29 runners and analyse form and nonsense like that. Just note that Tony Martin has a fancied one going and back it. Desert Gold.

fade2black

Crumbs wrote:

You don't need to look through all 29 runners and analyse form and nonsense like that. Just note that Tony Martin has a fancied one going and back it. Desert Gold.

That'll do. Thanks Crumbs.

That completes day three so.

scojones

2.35 Dutch Art has only the one run to go on formwise and it was impressive enough. If you look at what both jockey and trainer have to say about it you'll see that it's working well at home, showing plenty of speed and absolutely loves the fast ground. That's enough for me. Fade summed it up nicely to show that form is in it's favour. won @ 11/4

3.10 Scottish Stage is a lovely lass. One of two runners from the Stoute yard in this race today with the mount of Fallon. Spencer thinks really highly of her, as does Stoute, and she has already proven herself on distance, class and going. There will be disappointment all round if she doesn't shine today.
2nd not quite sure what Fallon was at to be honest.

3.50 Distinction had a bad spell for a while but the win 33 days ago suggests that Stoute has it back in form for Ascot today. The Stoute yard is firing nicely the past few weeks, and if it's back to it's best there should be no stopping it. 3rd

4.25 Sir Gerard sticks out like a sore thumb, but I'm going to look elsewhere. Direct Debit is forecasted to be 25/1 and I think it's excellent each way value. Going has never been an issue for it, and it's proven itself amongst this class before. 25/1 is a cracking price. NOWHERE

4.55 I'm not going to start naming NAP's today, but I do think that Purple Moon has the best chance out of all my selections today. I seem to be following Stoute alot at Ascot and for obvious reasons. Kinane was brilliant yesterday, and has ridden Purple Moon before. Needs to improve to win this today, but I expect the improvement and it should be able to hold off Ivy Creek. NOWHERE

5.30 I've lost enough money on Desert Gold, so that's why I'm not bothering with it today. Grey Boy has a cracking chance. It's last four runs have been brilliant, proving going is not an issue and really is on form. If it can reproduce the Ripon form it should be in the placings today. 10/1 is a great price. NOWHERE

Not nearly as positive as I was with Wednesday's selections. Great write up fade.

Jak

Just Selections for me - nothing more. Had a great day yesterday and cashed out so just playing some fun bets here with surplus based on various web tips. Most of the below also feature in an accumulator and lucky 63.... structured gambling at its best :rolleyes:

2.35: Dutch art to win, but only as part of other bet. Other than this will put a little on Take to the Ski for a place.

3.10: Scottish Stage to win and a forecast with Quenched.

3.50: Distinction to win.

4.25:Gone heavily enough on Sir Gerard E/W in this as 1/4 odds on 5 places seemed reasonable value. And a forecast with Dunelight. May also do Giganticus and Direct Debit for a place.

4.55: Ivy Creek to win, but not backing it individually at those odds.

5.30: RVF on Jedburgh and Desert Gold

finnpark

What do people think of Media Puzzle. I backed him last time out in Ireland when it won for me at 8/1 and I think it has an ew chance today but Dermot Weld really blew it up in the paper which is a really bad thing. Im not sure if I will have a small punt. Any opinions?

It is 16/1 with 2 bookmakers

masterK

My selections for today are:

2:35 Sonny Red
3:10 Scottish Stage
3:50 Distinction
4:25 Sir Gerrard
4:55 Ivy Creek NAP
5:30 Grey Boy & Marching Song

fade2black

UPDATE

4:25

As well as Sir Gerard....another horse appeals is Plum Pudding - 12-1. Got a call about this one this morning....apparently this one is beating asset (Hannon's Group Horse) by up to 6 lengths on the gallops. With a plum draw (sorry) this is my other selection in the race.

timmy79

Lucky 15 for me again

City of Tribes 8/1
Media Puzzle 12/1
Plum Pudding 12/1
Desert Gold 6/1

As last time its 50c e/w

All win = €8014
All Placed = €174.50
3 winners Prob somewhere around €900 ish

Corben Dallas

My Ascot Runners

2:35 Hoh Mike- NAP every time ive seen him run hes impressed, savage horse, if he runs near his best he'll figure at teh busines end. lot of qulaity in the race tough

3:10 Scottish Stage
3:50 Reefscape
4:25 Easy Air - strong sort, same stable as stronghold shoul dgo well
4:55 Purple Moon > plus watchout for Lennigrad, quick but both races have been on soft ,e/w if biger than 8's << Jamie onboard+++
5:30 Bayeaux

scargill

14:35 Sonny Red 4th
15:10 Scottish Stage (NAP) 2nd
15:50 Yeats won @ 7/1
16:25 Sir Gerard won @ 9/2 (backed at 7)
16:55 Hazeymm e/w 3rd @ 11/1
17:30 Grey Boy e/w unplaced

better day than yesterday !

iloveireland

fade2black wrote:

UPDATE

4:25

As well as Sir Gerard....another horse appeals is Plum Pudding - 12-1. Got a call about this one this morning....apparently this one is beating asset (Hannon's Group Horse) by up to 6 lengths on the gallops. With a plum draw (sorry) this is my other selection in the race.

PLUM PUDDING HAS A GREAT CHANCE. IM DEFINATLY ON HIM.

THE 5:30 IS FAIRLY OPEN BUT I THINK BAYEUX CAN TAKE THAT ONE.

JoeyJJ

2.35 DUTCH ART 11/4, Hoh Mike 2/1f, Cav Okay 22/1
11 RAN

1 up !

fade2black

JoeyJJ wrote:

2.35 DUTCH ART 11/4, Hoh Mike 2/1f, Cav Okay 22/1
11 RAN

1 up !

one up for who?

fade2black

It's going to be one of those days. Scottish Stage was blocked about 3 times...couldn't get a run. I'm getting that sinking feeling.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

It's going to be one of those days. Scottish Stage was blocked about 3 times...couldn't get a run. I'm getting that sinking feeling.

Seems that way alright. It was very frustrating.

scargill

fade2black wrote:

It's going to be one of those days. Scottish Stage was blocked about 3 times...couldn't get a run. I'm getting that sinking feeling.

i was sure she was going to win - if only Fallon went for the the gap a fraction of a second earlier he might have closed the door on Mont Etoile. They both went for the same small gap at the same time. bugger !!

fade2black

This game is really a toughie....Before the off of this race I thought about Yeats and how nobody really mentioned him so he'll probably pop up and win. Never tackled this extreme distance before so we were kind of in the dark....but wins impressively.

scargill

get in!! Ballydoyle don't keep them in training for the craic !!

had 50 points on the ATR competition too at 15/2 - have 30 on Grey Boy @ 10/1 on the last - will have a slight chance if that wins.

scargill

fade, did you stick with Sir Gerard in the end ? there was a serious gamble on him!! I had a few quid e/w on it @ 7/1

fade2black

I did scargill, I did a dutch on the race. Sir Gerard was always my main bet but the call I got this morning got me very interested....and there was a pile of money on that one too. I didn't think I read things too badly today but there are so many other factors to take unto consideration...most of them unknowns that are really out of our hands.

Jak

Well never learning, I did well from my heavy bet on Gerard and am lumping on Ivy Creek with an e/w safety to test my luck before cashing out for the day again.

Nice call on Sir Gerard.

Jak

Ah well...

samo

Purple Moon let me down, had it in a E/W Double with Sir Gerard (who I got at 7/1)

Dont think I heard Ivy Creek mentioned!

DeadParrot

up to my goulies in work all day
and got 5 mins to check in and see was there any word on ascott
10.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 4:25 BRITANNIA STAKES HERITAGE HANDICAP 1m
Sir Gerard 7 - 1 Win €107.50 €0.00

which is why I love this place

no if desert gold can come good
I may have to send fade and crumbs some flowers

fade2black

Desert Gold drifts like a paper boat, then stays in the stalls......hmmmm

scargill

fade2black wrote:

Desert Gold drifts like a paper boat, then stays in the stalls......hmmmm

yes - you why does that always seem to happen !! makes you wonder sometimes

scargill

bet someone wins the ATR competition with 90 points on Uhoomagoo @ 33/1 !!

Corben Dallas

2:35 Hoh Mike- NAP every time ive seen him run hes impressed, savage horse, if he runs near his best he'll figure at teh busines end. lot of qulaity in the race tough 2nd

3:10 Scottish Stage 2nd
3:50 Reefscape 2nd
4:25 Easy Air 2nd <<can u see a trend here folks - strong sort, same stable as stronghold shoul dgo well
4:55 Purple Moon >Nowhere plus watchout for Lennigrad,did slightly better 6/7th or something?) quick but both races have been on soft ,e/w if biger than 8's << Jamie onboard+++
5:30 Bayeaux 4th

>Hoh Mike (IMO) would have hacked up and left Dutch art for dead, even after Jamie putting in a DOH! ride he still bloted u to second and if he'd had a 1/2 fulrong more? But u cannot sit behind a wall of horses and expect them to move over u have to fight to get yur pitch/running room. Jamie did this yester with Red Evie but got away with it, bu the got caught here. As said before, hes a savage horse.

>Reefscape and Distinction got turned over by Fallon <what a clever jock! by the time Fallon had stoled a few lengths these two set off too late to catch on maybe better/quicker horses.

Also Impressed again with Easy Air, beaten but ran a good race.

Eh.....any prizes for picking four 2nds????