You know you are ahead but dont want to call!

Trippie

So playing a live stt the other night and this came up

blinds at 200/400
starting stack 4000 and im up to 18.5k but only second in chips behind UTG+1 who has 23k, both of us are miles ahead of everybody else by about 10k

Utg + 1 a v.loose player but seldom raises unless he has something decent makes it 2000
2 caling stations call ( im not worried about them as they most likely have A/K rag which is sooted)

round to me in big blind with 86off i know its rubbish but i had value,a decent chip stack and a feeling that if i hit i will get paid off pretty easily.

flop comes 10s 8h 4c
i check because i have no interest in the hand but then UTG+1 goes all-in for 20,000+,everyone folds back around to me,

now you may be thinking its a no brainer but i know the way he plays and he always has nothing when he overbets the pot. I put him on AK/KQ/QJ because he really could have any two overcards.

so back to me do i call knowing he has two overcards,win although looking incredibly crazy and now having nearly 40k or i could take the risk he hits something and busts me or do i just fold and wait for another opportunity?

ArmaniJeanss

I'll comment on the flop as is, and ignore the pre-flop call.

Reasons to Call.
You 'know' he has 2 overcards, then he has max 6 outs (arguably a fraction less because the 2 calling stations are likely to have hands than interfere with his). So you are roughly 73%-27% fav - its costing 16.5K to win 26.5K so its a definite call.

Reasons to Fold.
Maybe he knows that you know etc, and is doing some reverse whatsit with AT, KT, A8 etc ???.
Maybe its such a weak game that you can cruise to the money placings anyway, but passing up a 70+% situation isnt good.

Call, remembering as always to laugh and smile when he hits.

Hectorjelly

definite call as descibed

Ste05

assuming read is accurate, definite call

ocallagh

these are the calls that will win MTTs... wp if u called

Trippie

ocallagh wrote:

these are the calls that will win MTTs... wp if u called

I did call, he turned over Aks, a three on the turn and an Ace on the river and he busted me, but i was getting comments off everybody at the table saying it was crazy and i should of waited coz i had such a big stack compared to the blinds that i wasnt worth the risk

ecksor

Nice read/call.

Boie

I just don't like the call pre-flop. It's a 5x raise and you're in a horrible position.

About the call; you have to be ABSOLUTELY sure that he only pushes here with two overs. If you are then it's an easy call.

DeVore

I think you're reasoning for the preflop call is flawed. Once you have decided on this course of action, I think you should call or you make a second mistake. I think you misunderstand the term "value" though, not that you are alone in that! There is no dead money in the pot, no over lay and no player has called and then folded to a raise, so I fail to see how there is "value".

What were you looking for on the flop in order to call? two pair, a straight-draw?

DeV.