simple question

Gholimoli

you have just sat down at a table on Tribeca.
3/6 6 max.
you have 450.
one limper and villain goes all in for 140 from SB.
you have 99 on BB.
do you call?
what if there was no limper?
whats the minimum hand you would call with here?

Hectorjelly

I call with a limper or without, its not a tournament so the chance of someone limping with AA or KK is unlikely. I probably call (given no read) with 88 maybe 77. I like to gamble as much as possible in spots like this. Be aware that in my experience this is going to be only marginally profitable, unless the guy is clearly on tilt.

Doc Farrell

u have 6 dollars invested, in all likelihood ur 40/50% to win. so its really a question of whether u want to flip a coin. personally I wouldnt bother, he'll definitely gamble when ur in a better place soon.

jbravado

Id fold. Any real hand your in deep trouble...half a hand your probably flipping for it....Dont think 99 will be in good shape enough to make this a profitable call.My 2c.

fuzzbox

I tend to fold until I see him do it a few more times.

I find that villains do this with TT+ and AK and sometimes AQ. If they are really bad then you will see that pretty quick.

Since you are getting effectively even money, and you are against this range ... 99 is not a good gamble.

That said, if villain is a total muppet, 99 destroys his range good.

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

I tend to fold until I see him do it a few more times.

I find that villains do this with TT+ and AK and sometimes AQ. If they are really bad then you will see that pretty quick.

Since you are getting effectively even money, and you are against this range ... 99 is not a good gamble.

That said, if villain is a total muppet, 99 destroys his range good.

Considering he's pushing for 140 in a limped pot, or even open-pushing, we can safely say he is a total muppet.

Hectorjelly

Doc Farrell wrote:

u have 6 dollars invested, in all likelihood ur 40/50% to win. so its really a question of whether u want to flip a coin. personally I wouldnt bother, he'll definitely gamble when ur in a better place soon.

You can never be 40/50% to win. You will be around 57% (most likely), 80% (the odd time), 20% (the odd time.

If he has a range of JJ-77, AK you are about 51%.
If his range includes AQ and a few lower pairs its almost 60%.

This is not flipping a coin, passing up a 10% edge (if you have one) is a significent mistake.

And you definitely can not be sure he will do this when your in a better place, and that attitude is entirely wrong anyway.

Edit to add:If your not properly bankrolled, then in any close descion where its a choice between commintting chips and not committing them, i think you are better off erring on the side of caution.

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

Considering he's pushing for 140 in a limped pot, or even open-pushing, we can safely say he is a total muppet.

Right, but we dont know what kind of muppet he is yet.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

You can never be 40/50% to win. You will be around 57% (most likely), 80% (the odd time), 20% (the odd time.

If he has a range of JJ-77, AK you are about 51%.
If his range includes AQ and a few lower pairs its almost 60%.

This is not flipping a coin, passing up a 10% edge (if you have one) is a significent mistake.

And you definitely can not be sure he will do this when your in a better place, and that attitude is entirely wrong anyway.

Edit to add:If your not properly bankrolled, then in any close descion where its a choice between commintting chips and not committing them, i think you are better off erring on the side of caution.

HJ, assigning that range to him is all very well, but this is the first time you see him ... you have no idea if thats his range.

Consider

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.4623 % 36.50% 00.96% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.5377 % 61.58% 00.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }


This is no good for us, we are not passing up 10%, we are dropping 22%.