Call or fold (Hand analysis)

MrPillowTalk

Ok table has been hu for about an hour, the villain in this hand (sistabossen for anyone who plays tribeca) is imo an excellent player never gives it away, raises a lot of pots but is hard to catch on a steal but he is down about 5k since we went hu but is still playing his game. We have been at the same table for about 3 hours, he knows my game well we have played a lot over the last month or so.

Stacks:
me 9500
villain 3400

Im on the button and have Kd9s
I raise to 70
villain reraises to 210
I call

flop K Q 7 two diamonds (pot 420)

villain checks
I bet 320
villain calls, hmm

turn 9c (pot 1060)

villain checks
I bet 750
villain moves all in c.2k to call (pot 3800)

My move?

DeadParrot

my initial thought is set.
Then re-thinking your positionand the fact that he called your flop bet, maybe KQ.
If you dont think he's the kind of player to go in on a draw, you gotta fold.
HOWEVER, in the heat of the moment I'd probably reluctantly call hoping to see Q9/97...
I'd need a chamberpot underneath me playing at those levels

Iceman78

I think you are behind here although its a bit above my usual levels too. I reckon he knows you have something and is hoping you call. I would put him on J10 in this situation as that is a legitimate raising hand heads up and he only called your bet on flop with open ended draw.

Shortstack

Having been caught by him before myself I would say that at least 75% of the time he has you beat here. He is capable of putting a lot of chips in on a scary board with nothing if he feels you are weak.

He either has a set or J10 most of the time, KQ some of the time and nothing a very small percent of the time.

ianmc38

I think we're very likely to see JTd here.

All we're realistically beating is AK, AA and a bluff.

I fold.

karlh

is he really reraising preflop here with J10?

i'd say you might be lucky and he has AK but im folding like a mofo here....in fact im probably folding like a mofo to the raise preflop

dont want to drag this too far off topic but MPT, but I always wondered why players at such a high level want to play headsup when surely the value and money to be made is at full ring games with more dead money?

cardshark202

Yes I was wondering why you would stay playing HU against a player who you percieve as being good.

As regards to the hand, I still can't decide whether to call or fold. If there's a decent chance he can be bluffing here I will call.

MrPillowTalk

karlh wrote:

is he really reraising preflop here with J10?

i'd say you might be lucky and he has AK but im folding like a mofo here....in fact im probably folding like a mofo to the raise preflop

dont want to drag this too far off topic but MPT, but I always wondered why players at such a high level want to play headsup when surely the value and money to be made is at full ring games with more dead money?

Its true I could pick a FAR easier spot but I like to play deepstacks hu as I reckon its one of the strongest parts of my game, also I think that you only improve your game by playing good players.

ocallagh

I think this is a fold without some sort of a read on the guy.. He's not pushing with one pair (thinking it's good).. so he is either bluffing or has you beat. As Shortstack said he has a hand that beats you about 75% of the time.

Click fold, type gg and check the sit-out box!

How'd it work out?

MrPillowTalk

I folded, I figured only possible hand he pushes there that I have beat is AK.

So he showed A8 off and said "you had to put me on 10 J right?"

Damn good bluff.

Got him in the end though

ianmc38

karlh wrote:

is he really reraising preflop here with J10?

Id often reraise with JTs preflop when playing HU.

Goodluck2me

karlh wrote:

is he really reraising preflop here with J10?

i'd say you might be lucky and he has AK but im folding like a mofo here....in fact im probably folding like a mofo to the raise preflop

dont want to drag this too far off topic but MPT, but I always wondered why players at such a high level want to play headsup when surely the value and money to be made is at full ring games with more dead money?

To practise fo rthe Boards heads up tourney why else??

RoundTower

I haven't played with this guy. Against an unknown good aggressive player I would call, he can certainly be pushing a lower 2 pair or maybe AK or a lot of draws, although I wouldn't expect a pure bluff.

MrPillowTalk

RoundTower wrote:

I haven't played with this guy. Against an unknown good aggressive player I would call, he can certainly be pushing a lower 2 pair or maybe AK or a lot of draws, although I wouldn't expect a pure bluff.

Lower 2 pair is very unlikely, a good player wont reraise pre with q9 or q7 also if he flopped a queen I would expect a raise to find out where he is on the flop.

RoundTower

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Lower 2 pair is very unlikely, a good player wont reraise pre with q9 or q7 also if he flopped a queen I would expect a raise to find out where he is on the flop.

Really? I would expect him to lead out or check call (edit: or check fold), raising the flop with a queen is a really ugly way to bloat the pot imo. And if you are raising a lot, surely a guy like this will occasionally reraise with K7 or Q9 or 97 even out of position.

MrPillowTalk

RoundTower wrote:

Really? I would expect him to lead out or check call (edit: or check fold), raising the flop with a queen is a really ugly way to bloat the pot imo. And if you are raising a lot, surely a guy like this will occasionally reraise with K7 or Q9 or 97 even out of position.

if he had the queen i would expect him to lead or check raise, check calling achieves nothing against me as I will just pot it again on the turn regardless of what I had.

He will occasionally reraise with those hands but only occasionally, dont get me wrong I was trying to talk myself into a call but .......

RoundTower

You really will always fire the turn here if checked to again, no matter what hand you have? I'm all for playing aggressive HU but surely there are some hands you should be checking behind.

I can't figure out whether this makes it good for him to call you down with Qx or not, I suppose it depends what your range on the flop is in the first place.

MrPillowTalk

RoundTower wrote:

You really will always fire the turn here if checked to again, no matter what hand you have? I'm all for playing aggressive HU but surely there are some hands you should be checking behind.

I can't figure out whether this makes it good for him to call you down with Qx or not, I suppose it depends what your range on the flop is in the first place.

Yeah on that board hu Im allways going to fire again unless I have notes on a player telling me he is very passive or trappy.

ditpoker

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Damn good bluff.

what a play by your opponent!! learning alot about heads up from this thread! keep the discussion coming!

MrPillowTalk

ditpoker wrote:

what a play by your opponent!! learning alot about heads up from this thread! keep the discussion coming!

Thats true it was a sick bluff, other side of the coin I call it..............how good a play does it look then?

Instead of what a play everyone posts "how did that donkey get 4k in the pot with Ace high!!" thin line between genius and idiot, thats whats great about poker.

ditpoker

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Thats true it was a sick bluff, other side of the coin I call it..............how good a play does it look then?

Instead of what a play everyone posts "how did that donkey get 4k in the pot with Ace high!!" thin line between genius and idiot, thats whats great about poker.

very very true! poker's great!